Al-Adalah 0-3 Al-Ittihad FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Ittihad FC at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Adalah vs Al-Ittihad FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium plays host to Al-Adalah versus Al-Ittihad FC in Pro League, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Friday 26 August 2022 at 16:45 UTC.
Form
Al-Ittihad FC's overall Pro League record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: D L L W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al-Ittihad FC haven't played a Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Al-Ittihad FC's form when playing away from home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Adalah 1.11 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Adalah attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.196 / defence 1.031. League average goals — home 1.265 / away 1.250. Data: 0 Al-Adalah games / 30 Al-Ittihad FC games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Al-Adalah 25% | Draw 24% | Al-Ittihad FC 52%. Fair-value odds: Al-Adalah 4.00 | Draw 4.17 | Al-Ittihad FC 1.92. Al-Ittihad FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ittihad FC at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad FC if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.83 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Adalah vs Al-Ittihad FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 26 Aug 2022, 16:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Adalah 25% | Draw 24% | Al-Ittihad FC 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 55% | xG Al-Adalah 1.11 / Al-Ittihad FC 1.72 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Adalah attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.196 / def 1.031 | league avg home 1.265 / away 1.250 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Al-Adalah xG
Expected Goals
1.72
Al-Ittihad FC xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Adalah vs Al-Ittihad FC kick off?
Al-Adalah vs Al-Ittihad FC kicked off at 16:45 on Friday 26 August 2022 at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Adalah vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Adalah 0 - 3 Al-Ittihad FC.
Where is Al-Adalah vs Al-Ittihad FC being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Adalah vs Al-Ittihad FC part of?
Al-Adalah vs Al-Ittihad FC is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Adalah vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Adalah a 25% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad FC a 52% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Adalah vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Al-Adalah and Al-Ittihad FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Adalah vs Al-Ittihad FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Adalah and Al-Ittihad FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Adalah and Al-Ittihad FC in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Al-Adalah's attack rating (0.85) and Al-Ittihad FC's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.11 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Ittihad FC's attack (1.20x) against Al-Adalah's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.72.
These ratings are built from 0/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
25%
4.08
24%
4.19
52%
1.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Al-Adalah xG
Total xG
2.83
1.72
Al-Ittihad FC xG
4.08
25%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
1.94
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
18%
5.58
33%
3.03
Win to Nil
4%
22.76
17%
5.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 10.2 | 8.7 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 11.3 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 6.3 | 5.4 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Adalah vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Al-Adalah and Al-Ittihad FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Al-Adalah and 1.72 for Al-Ittihad FC, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Adalah vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Adalah
Pre-Season
Al-Ittihad FC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Al-Adalah
0
Draws
2
Al-Ittihad FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Adalah and Al-Ittihad FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Al-Adalah have won 0, Al-Ittihad FC have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Adalah and Al-Ittihad FC last play each other?
They last met on 10 February 2023, when Al-Ittihad FC 5-0 Al-Adalah.
Who has won more matches between Al-Adalah and Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Adalah home games / Al-Ittihad FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Al-Ittihad FC run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Al-Adalah.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad FC beat Al-Adalah 0-3 at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Adalah 1.11 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.72 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Al-Adalah fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Al-Ittihad FC outscored their 1.72 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Adalah attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.20 / defence 1.03, drawn from 0/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Adalah 25% | Draw 24% | Al-Ittihad FC 52%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.