Abha 1-1 Al Taawon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Taawon at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Abha vs Al Taawon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 22 as Abha welcome Al Taawon to Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 5 April 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Abha stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Abha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Abha have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Abha are significantly better at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al Taawon — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Taawon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al Taawon have posted 6W 2D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.00 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form points away from home here. Al Taawon's 1.20 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Abha's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Abha have won 1, Al Taawon 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Oct 2022, ended 3–1 with Abha winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Abha in-play tendencies (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Al Taawon in-play tendencies (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Abha 55% and Al Taawon 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Abha 53% | Al Taawon 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Abha 1.31 xG and Al Taawon 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Abha attack 1.019 / defence 1.077 | Al Taawon attack 1.065 / defence 0.922. League average goals — home 1.396 / away 1.357. Data: 51 Abha games / 51 Al Taawon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Abha 32% | Draw 26% | Al Taawon 42%. Fair-value odds: Abha 3.12 | Draw 3.85 | Al Taawon 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al Taawon as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Taawon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.87 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Abha 70% | Al Taawon 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Abha vs Al Taawon | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 5 Apr 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Abha 32% | Draw 26% | Al Taawon 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Abha 1.31 / Al Taawon 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Abha attack 1.019 / def 1.077 | Al Taawon attack 1.065 / def 0.922 | league avg home 1.396 / away 1.357 • Poisson stance: Al Taawon (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Abha xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Al Taawon xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Abha vs Al Taawon kick off?
Abha vs Al Taawon kicked off at 20:00 on Wednesday 5 April 2023 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Abha vs Al Taawon?
Abha 1 - 1 Al Taawon.
Where is Abha vs Al Taawon being played?
The match is being played at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Abha vs Al Taawon part of?
Abha vs Al Taawon is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Abha vs Al Taawon?
Our statistical model gives Abha a 32% chance of winning, Al Taawon a 42% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al Taawon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Abha vs Al Taawon?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Abha and Al Taawon will score (BTTS).
Will Abha vs Al Taawon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Abha and Al Taawon?
Record (3 meetings): Abha 1W | Draws 1 | Al Taawon 1W.
What form are Abha and Al Taawon in?
Abha (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Al Taawon (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Abha's attack rating (1.02) and Al Taawon's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.31 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al Taawon's attack versus Abha's defence, projects 1.56 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Taawon Win
32%
3.17
26%
3.85
42%
2.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Abha xG
Total xG
2.87
1.56
Al Taawon xG
3.17
32%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
2.36
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
21%
4.74
27%
3.71
Win to Nil
7%
15.03
11%
8.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 8.8 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.6 | 9.0 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.6 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.3 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Abha vs Al Taawon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Abha and Al Taawon expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Abha and 1.56 for Al Taawon, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Abha vs Al Taawon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Abha's recent record stands at 16W 10D 25L from 51 games, a 1.14 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Abha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Taawon, meanwhile, have gone 17W 18D 16L across 51 games — 1.35 PPG, with L-D-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Al Taawon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Abha on 1.14 PPG, Al Taawon on 1.35. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Abha have managed 11W 7D 7L from 25 games — 1.60 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.14 PPG overall — Abha are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Al Taawon's away record stands at 10W 8D 7L across 25 trips, a 1.52 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Abha are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Al Taawon are on 1.41 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Taawon in 69%.
Last 51 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Abha
Blended
Al Taawon
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Abha and Al Taawon in coming into this match?
Abha have gone 16W 10D 25L in their last 51 games (1.14 PPG), while Al Taawon have gone 17W 18D 16L in their last 51 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Abha at home or Al Taawon away?
Abha's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Abha at home: 1.60 PPG; Al Taawon away: 1.52 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Abha and Al Taawon runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Abha's record when hosting Al Taawon specifically: 0W 3D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Abha
3
Draws
2
Al Taawon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Abha and Al Taawon?
From 6 meetings on record, Abha have won 1, Al Taawon have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Abha and Al Taawon last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2024, when Abha 1-1 Al Taawon.
Who has won more matches between Abha and Al Taawon?
Al Taawon have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Abha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Abha at 60%, Al Taawon at 72%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Abha) and 56% (Al Taawon). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Abha home games / Al Taawon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Abha play Al Taawon?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Abha's games and 72% of Al Taawon's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Abha vs Al Taawon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Abha's matches and 56% of Al Taawon's.
Do Abha and Al Taawon tend to score early?
Abha have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Al Taawon in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Abha and Al Taawon share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 22, as Abha and Al Taawon drew 1-1 in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Abha 1.31 xG and Al Taawon 1.56 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Abha attack 1.02 / defence 1.08 against Al Taawon attack 1.06 / defence 0.92, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Abha 32% | Draw 26% | Al Taawon 42%, with Al Taawon to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Abha 53%, Al Taawon 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Abha's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Al Taawon's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Abha 1.14 PPG, Al Taawon 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.