Abha 1-0 Al-Raed – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Abha at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Abha vs Al-Raed fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium plays host to Abha versus Al-Raed in Pro League, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Saturday 1 January 2022 at 11:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Abha have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L L W D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Abha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Abha's home record at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium: 3W 2D 2L from 7 Pro League appearances (1.57 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 86% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al-Raed's overall Pro League record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W W D L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Raed, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Raed away from home this season: 1W 2D 4L from 7 away games — 0.71 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.57 goals scored and 2.43 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.71 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Abha against 1.40 for Al-Raed. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
Abha goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Al-Raed goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Abha 57% versus Al-Raed 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Abha 43% | Al-Raed 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Abha 1.81 xG and Al-Raed 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Abha attack 1.024 / defence 1.189 | Al-Raed attack 1.009 / defence 1.532. League average goals — home 1.152 / away 1.096. Al-Raed bring a strong defensive rating of 1.532 — this is suppressing Abha's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Abha games / 14 Al-Raed games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Abha 48% | Draw 24% | Al-Raed 27%. Fair-value odds: Abha 2.08 | Draw 4.17 | Al-Raed 3.70. Abha hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.81 / 1.31) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Abha as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Abha if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.12 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Abha 86% | Al-Raed 57% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Abha vs Al-Raed | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Jan 2022, 11:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Abha 48% | Draw 24% | Al-Raed 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG Abha 1.81 / Al-Raed 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Abha attack 1.024 / def 1.189 | Al-Raed attack 1.009 / def 1.532 | league avg home 1.152 / away 1.096 • Poisson stance: Abha (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
Abha xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Al-Raed xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Abha vs Al-Raed kick off?
Abha vs Al-Raed kicked off at 11:45 on Saturday 1 January 2022 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Abha vs Al-Raed?
Abha 1 - 0 Al-Raed.
Where is Abha vs Al-Raed being played?
The match is being played at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Abha vs Al-Raed part of?
Abha vs Al-Raed is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Abha vs Al-Raed?
Our statistical model gives Abha a 48% chance of winning, Al-Raed a 27% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Abha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Abha vs Al-Raed?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Abha and Al-Raed will score (BTTS).
Will Abha vs Al-Raed have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Abha and Al-Raed?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Abha and Al-Raed in?
Abha (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-D-D. Al-Raed (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Abha's attack rating (1.02) and Al-Raed's defence rating (1.53), the model arrives at 1.81 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Raed's attack (1.01x) against Abha's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Abha Win
48%
2.06
24%
4.14
27%
3.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Abha xG
Total xG
3.12
1.31
Al-Raed xG
2.06
48%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
3.65
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
27%
3.72
16%
6.10
Win to Nil
13%
7.68
4%
22.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 5.8 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 10.5 | 6.9 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.5 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.7 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Abha vs Al-Raed?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Abha and Al-Raed expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Abha and 1.31 for Al-Raed, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Abha vs Al-Raed?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 14 outings, Abha have picked up 1.07 PPG on a 4W 3D 7L record — L-L-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Abha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Raed's form line: 6W 3D 5L from 14 games, 1.50 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-W. The sample for Al-Raed is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Raed are the form team by 0.43 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Abha.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Abha have posted 1.57 PPG from 7 outings (3W 2D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.07 PPG overall — Abha are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Al-Raed have gone 1W 2D 4L from 7 away games — 0.71 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.50 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al-Raed's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Abha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Abha are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Al-Raed are on 1.50 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Raed in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Abha
Blended
Al-Raed
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Abha and Al-Raed in coming into this match?
Abha have gone 4W 3D 7L in their last 14 games (1.07 PPG), while Al-Raed have gone 6W 3D 5L in their last 14 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Abha at home or Al-Raed away?
Abha's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Abha at home: 1.57 PPG; Al-Raed away: 0.71 PPG.
Have Abha or Al-Raed been keeping clean sheets recently?
Abha have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Al-Raed in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since January 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 December 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Abha have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Al-Raed — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Abha
0
Draws
3
Al-Raed
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Abha and Al-Raed?
From 6 meetings on record, Abha have won 3, Al-Raed have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Abha and Al-Raed last play each other?
They last met on 29 December 2023, when Al-Raed 4-3 Abha.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Abha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Al-Raed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 86% for Abha, 57% for Al-Raed — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Abha and 86% for Al-Raed. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 57% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Raed in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Abha home games / Al-Raed away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Abha play Al-Raed?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 86% of Abha's games and 57% of Al-Raed's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Abha vs Al-Raed usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Abha's matches and 86% of Al-Raed's.
Do Abha and Al-Raed tend to score early?
Abha have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Al-Raed in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Abha edge out Al-Raed 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Abha beat Al-Raed 1-0 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Abha 1.81 xG and Al-Raed 1.31 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Abha fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Al-Raed landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Abha attack 1.02 / defence 1.19 against Al-Raed attack 1.01 / defence 1.53, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Abha 48% | Draw 24% | Al-Raed 27%, with Abha to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Abha 43%, Al-Raed 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Abha's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Al-Raed's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Raed arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 1.07. Form was overturned, with Abha winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Abha (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Raed (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.43 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.