Abha 0-0 Al-Fayha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Abha at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Abha vs Al-Fayha fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Abha host Al-Fayha at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 23 June 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Abha — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L D D D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Abha have posted 6W 3D 1L at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Abha are significantly better at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Fayha have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Al-Fayha's form when playing away from home: 0W 4D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Abha at 0.90 PPG versus Al-Fayha's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Abha have won 0, Al-Fayha 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 25 Dec 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Abha in-play tendencies (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Al-Fayha in-play tendencies (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Abha 54% versus Al-Fayha 36%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Abha 43% | Al-Fayha 18%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Abha 1.11 xG and Al-Fayha 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Abha attack 0.797 / defence 1.030 | Al-Fayha attack 0.629 / defence 1.236. League average goals — home 1.127 / away 1.285. Abha's attack strength of 0.797 is below the league average — the 1.11 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al-Fayha bring a strong defensive rating of 1.236 — this is suppressing Abha's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 28 Abha games / 28 Al-Fayha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Abha 42% | Draw 31% | Al-Fayha 27%. Fair-value odds: Abha 2.38 | Draw 3.23 | Al-Fayha 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.94. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.94 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Abha are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Abha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.94 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 31% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 38%. Form rates corroborate: Abha 40% | Al-Fayha 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Abha vs Al-Fayha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 23 Jun 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Abha 42% | Draw 31% | Al-Fayha 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 38% | xG Abha 1.11 / Al-Fayha 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Abha attack 0.797 / def 1.030 | Al-Fayha attack 0.629 / def 1.236 | league avg home 1.127 / away 1.285 • Poisson stance: Abha (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Abha xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Al-Fayha xG
38%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Abha vs Al-Fayha kick off?
Abha vs Al-Fayha kicked off at 19:00 on Thursday 23 June 2022 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Abha vs Al-Fayha?
Abha 0 - 0 Al-Fayha.
Where is Abha vs Al-Fayha being played?
The match is being played at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Abha vs Al-Fayha part of?
Abha vs Al-Fayha is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Abha vs Al-Fayha?
Our statistical model gives Abha a 42% chance of winning, Al-Fayha a 27% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Abha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Abha vs Al-Fayha?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Abha and Al-Fayha will score (BTTS).
Will Abha vs Al-Fayha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Abha and Al-Fayha?
Record (1 meetings): Abha 0W | Draws 1 | Al-Fayha 0W.
What form are Abha and Al-Fayha in?
Abha (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-D-D-L. Al-Fayha (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Abha's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Al-Fayha's defensive record (1.24x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.11. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Fayha's attack versus Abha's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Abha Win
42%
2.39
31%
3.23
27%
3.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.3%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Abha xG
Total xG
1.94
0.83
Al-Fayha xG
2.39
42%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
3.68
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.64
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
43%
2.30
33%
3.03
Win to Nil
18%
5.50
9%
11.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.3 | 11.9 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.9 | 13.2 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 7.4 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Abha vs Al-Fayha?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.0%.
How many goals are Abha and Al-Fayha expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Abha and 0.83 for Al-Fayha, a combined total of 1.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Abha vs Al-Fayha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 28 outings, Abha have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 9W 7D 12L record — L-D-D-D-L across the most recent five.
Al-Fayha's form line: 8W 10D 10L from 28 games, 1.21 PPG, last five L-W-L-D-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Abha on 1.21 PPG, Al-Fayha on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Abha have posted 1.79 PPG from 14 outings (7W 4D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.21 PPG overall — Abha are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Al-Fayha have gone 1W 5D 8L from 14 away games — 0.57 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.21 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al-Fayha's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Abha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Abha are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Al-Fayha are on 0.75 scored and 0.82 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Fayha in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Abha
Current Season
Al-Fayha
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Abha and Al-Fayha in coming into this match?
Abha have gone 9W 7D 12L in their last 28 games (1.21 PPG), while Al-Fayha have gone 8W 10D 10L in their last 28 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Abha at home or Al-Fayha away?
Abha's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Abha at home: 1.79 PPG; Al-Fayha away: 0.57 PPG.
Have Abha or Al-Fayha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Abha have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Al-Fayha in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Abha and Al-Fayha runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Abha's record when hosting Al-Fayha specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Abha
3
Draws
2
Al-Fayha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Abha and Al-Fayha?
From 6 meetings on record, Abha have won 1, Al-Fayha have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Abha and Al-Fayha last play each other?
They last met on 25 February 2024, when Al-Fayha 3-2 Abha.
Who has won more matches between Abha and Al-Fayha?
Al-Fayha have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Abha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Abha 57%, Al-Fayha 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Abha) and 29% (Al-Fayha).
On the defensive side: Abha keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Al-Fayha in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Abha home games / Al-Fayha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Abha play Al-Fayha?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Abha's games and 57% of Al-Fayha's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Abha vs Al-Fayha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Abha's recent games and 29% of Al-Fayha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Abha and Al-Fayha tend to score early?
Abha have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Al-Fayha in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Abha's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 29, as Abha and Al-Fayha drew 0-0 in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Abha 1.11 xG and Al-Fayha 0.83 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Abha fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Al-Fayha landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Abha attack 0.80 / defence 1.03 against Al-Fayha attack 0.63 / defence 1.24, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Abha 42% | Draw 31% | Al-Fayha 27%, with Abha to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 30% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Abha 43%, Al-Fayha 18%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Abha's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Fayha's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Abha 1.21 PPG, Al-Fayha 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Abha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.