Abha 1-1 Al-Ettifaq – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Abha at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Abha vs Al-Ettifaq fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Al-Ettifaq travel to Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium to take on Abha. The game is scheduled for Thursday 26 August 2021, 17:05 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Abha stand at 1W 0D 1L from 2 Pro League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Abha have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Ettifaq have recorded 1W 1D 0L from 2 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Al-Ettifaq have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Al-Ettifaq — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Both teams score in over 100% of each side's relevant games (using overall form). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Abha 1.82 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Abha attack 1.003 / defence 1.179 | Al-Ettifaq attack 1.125 / defence 1.325. League average goals — home 1.369 / away 0.969. Al-Ettifaq bring a strong defensive rating of 1.325 — this is suppressing Abha's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 2 Abha games / 2 Al-Ettifaq games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Abha 49% | Draw 25% | Al-Ettifaq 26%. Fair-value odds: Abha 2.04 | Draw 4.00 | Al-Ettifaq 3.85. Abha hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.10. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.10 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.82 / 1.28) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Abha are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Al-Ettifaq (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Abha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.10 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Abha vs Al-Ettifaq | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 26 Aug 2021, 17:05 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Abha 49% | Draw 25% | Al-Ettifaq 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG Abha 1.82 / Al-Ettifaq 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Abha attack 1.003 / def 1.179 | Al-Ettifaq attack 1.125 / def 1.325 | league avg home 1.369 / away 0.969 • Poisson stance: Abha (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
Abha xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Al-Ettifaq xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Abha vs Al-Ettifaq kick off?
Abha vs Al-Ettifaq kicked off at 17:05 on Thursday 26 August 2021 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Abha vs Al-Ettifaq?
Abha 1 - 1 Al-Ettifaq.
Where is Abha vs Al-Ettifaq being played?
The match is being played at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Abha vs Al-Ettifaq part of?
Abha vs Al-Ettifaq is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Abha vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our statistical model gives Abha a 49% chance of winning, Al-Ettifaq a 26% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Abha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Abha vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Abha and Al-Ettifaq will score (BTTS).
Will Abha vs Al-Ettifaq have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Abha and Al-Ettifaq?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Abha and Al-Ettifaq in?
Abha (all comps): 1W-0D-1L in 2 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L. Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 1W-1D-0L in 2 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Abha's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Al-Ettifaq's defensive record (1.32x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.82. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ettifaq's attack versus Abha's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Abha Win
49%
2.05
25%
3.93
26%
3.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
Abha xG
Total xG
3.10
1.28
Al-Ettifaq xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
3.87
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.62
Clean Sheet
28%
3.61
16%
6.17
Win to Nil
13%
7.42
4%
23.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 5.8 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 10.5 | 6.7 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.5 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.8 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Abha vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Abha and Al-Ettifaq expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Abha and 1.28 for Al-Ettifaq, a combined total of 3.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Abha vs Al-Ettifaq?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Abha's recent record stands at 1W 0D 1L from 2 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Abha, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Ettifaq, meanwhile, have gone 1W 1D 0L across 2 games — 2.00 PPG, with W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Ettifaq by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Abha heading into this one.
Goals in Recent Form
Abha are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Al-Ettifaq are on 2.50 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Abha have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Al-Ettifaq in 100%.
Last 2 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Abha
Early Season
Al-Ettifaq
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Abha and Al-Ettifaq in coming into this match?
Abha have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 games (1.50 PPG), while Al-Ettifaq have gone 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 (2.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Al-Ettifaq have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Mar 2024, when Al-Ettifaq won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Abha's record when hosting Al-Ettifaq specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Abha
1
Draws
3
Al-Ettifaq
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Abha and Al-Ettifaq?
From 6 meetings on record, Abha have won 2, Al-Ettifaq have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Abha and Al-Ettifaq last play each other?
They last met on 9 March 2024, when Al-Ettifaq 3-0 Abha.
Who has won more matches between Abha and Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Ettifaq have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Abha home games / Al-Ettifaq away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Abha play Al-Ettifaq?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Abha's games and 100% of Al-Ettifaq's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Abha vs Al-Ettifaq usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Abha's matches and 100% of Al-Ettifaq's.
Do Abha and Al-Ettifaq tend to score early?
Abha have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Al-Ettifaq in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Abha and Al-Ettifaq share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Abha and Al-Ettifaq finished level at 1-1 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Abha 1.82 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.28 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Abha fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Abha attack 1.00 / defence 1.18 against Al-Ettifaq attack 1.12 / defence 1.32, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Abha 49% | Draw 25% | Al-Ettifaq 26%, with Abha to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 100% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Abha 100%, Al-Ettifaq 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ettifaq arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al-Ettifaq managed 1 against a 2.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.