Zenit 1-0 CSKA Moscow – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates CSKA Moscow at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Zenit vs CSKA Moscow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 6 as Zenit welcome CSKA Moscow to Saint-Petersburg Stadium. Kick-off is set for Thursday 26 August 2021 at 18:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Zenit have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 outings — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: W W W D D. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Zenit have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
CSKA Moscow — All Games: 3W 0D 2L from 5 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 2 clean sheets in 5 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. CSKA Moscow have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.20 PPG (Zenit) versus 1.80 (CSKA Moscow). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Zenit register both teams scoring in 100% of relevant matches, CSKA Moscow in 60% (using overall form) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Zenit in-play and half-time data (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; Over 3.5 in 60%.
CSKA Moscow in-play and half-time data (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Zenit 100% and CSKA Moscow 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zenit 60% | CSKA Moscow 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zenit 1.46 xG and CSKA Moscow 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zenit attack 1.198 / defence 1.204 | CSKA Moscow attack 0.953 / defence 1.246. League average goals — home 0.979 / away 1.353. CSKA Moscow bring a strong defensive rating of 1.246 — this is suppressing Zenit's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 5 Zenit games / 5 CSKA Moscow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zenit 35% | Draw 25% | CSKA Moscow 39%. Fair-value odds: Zenit 2.86 | Draw 4.00 | CSKA Moscow 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.46 / 1.55) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates CSKA Moscow as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on CSKA Moscow offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.01 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Zenit 100% | CSKA Moscow 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zenit vs CSKA Moscow | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Saint-Petersburg Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 26 Aug 2021, 18:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zenit 35% | Draw 25% | CSKA Moscow 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 61% | xG Zenit 1.46 / CSKA Moscow 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Zenit attack 1.198 / def 1.204 | CSKA Moscow attack 0.953 / def 1.246 | league avg home 0.979 / away 1.353 • Poisson stance: CSKA Moscow (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Zenit xG
Expected Goals
1.55
CSKA Moscow xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zenit vs CSKA Moscow kick off?
Zenit vs CSKA Moscow kicked off at 18:45 on Thursday 26 August 2021 at Saint-Petersburg Stadium.
What was the final score in Zenit vs CSKA Moscow?
Zenit 1 - 0 CSKA Moscow.
Where is Zenit vs CSKA Moscow being played?
The match is being played at Saint-Petersburg Stadium.
What competition is Zenit vs CSKA Moscow part of?
Zenit vs CSKA Moscow is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Zenit vs CSKA Moscow?
Our statistical model gives Zenit a 35% chance of winning, CSKA Moscow a 39% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making CSKA Moscow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zenit vs CSKA Moscow?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Zenit and CSKA Moscow will score (BTTS).
Will Zenit vs CSKA Moscow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zenit and CSKA Moscow?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Zenit and CSKA Moscow in?
Zenit (all comps): 3W-2D-0L in 5 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-D-D. CSKA Moscow (all comps): 3W-0D-2L in 5 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Zenit's attack rating (1.20) and CSKA Moscow's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 1.46 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, CSKA Moscow's attack versus Zenit's defence, projects 1.55 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
CSKA Moscow Win
35%
2.82
25%
3.97
39%
2.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Zenit xG
Total xG
3.01
1.55
CSKA Moscow xG
2.82
35%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
2.54
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
21%
4.72
23%
4.31
Win to Nil
8%
13.32
9%
10.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 7.6 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.1 | 8.6 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.1 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.0 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zenit vs CSKA Moscow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Zenit and CSKA Moscow expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Zenit and 1.55 for CSKA Moscow, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Zenit vs CSKA Moscow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Zenit's recent record stands at 3W 2D 0L from 5 games, a 2.20 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Zenit, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
CSKA Moscow, meanwhile, have gone 3W 0D 2L across 5 games — 1.80 PPG, with W-L-L-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for CSKA Moscow, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Zenit by 0.40 — a real, if not enormous, edge over CSKA Moscow heading into this one.
Goals in Recent Form
Zenit are averaging 2.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; CSKA Moscow are on 1.60 scored and 1.00 conceded. Zenit's scoring rate against CSKA Moscow's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Zenit have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; CSKA Moscow in 60%.
Defensively: CSKA Moscow in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zenit
Early Season
CSKA Moscow
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zenit and CSKA Moscow in coming into this match?
Zenit have gone 3W 2D 0L in their last 5 games (2.20 PPG), while CSKA Moscow have gone 3W 0D 2L in their last 5 (1.80 PPG).
Have Zenit or CSKA Moscow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Zenit have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, CSKA Moscow in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Zenit's record when hosting CSKA Moscow specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Zenit
3
Draws
2
CSKA Moscow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zenit and CSKA Moscow?
From 10 meetings on record, Zenit have won 5, CSKA Moscow have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Zenit and CSKA Moscow last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when CSKA Moscow 1-3 Zenit.
Who has won more matches between Zenit and CSKA Moscow?
Zenit have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Zenit are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
CSKA Moscow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Zenit at 100%, CSKA Moscow at 60%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Zenit and 60% for CSKA Moscow. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: CSKA Moscow in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zenit home games / CSKA Moscow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zenit play CSKA Moscow?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Zenit's games and 60% of CSKA Moscow's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Zenit vs CSKA Moscow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Zenit's matches and 60% of CSKA Moscow's.
Do Zenit and CSKA Moscow tend to score early?
Zenit have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, CSKA Moscow in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Zenit defy the odds to beat CSKA Moscow 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zenit beat CSKA Moscow 1-0 at Saint-Petersburg Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zenit 1.46 xG and CSKA Moscow 1.55 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. CSKA Moscow landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zenit attack 1.20 / defence 1.20 against CSKA Moscow attack 0.95 / defence 1.25, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zenit 35% | Draw 25% | CSKA Moscow 39%, with CSKA Moscow to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Zenit win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zenit 60%, CSKA Moscow 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 80%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zenit's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did not.
CSKA Moscow's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Zenit arrived the stronger side — 2.20 PPG against 1.80. That form edge translated into the three points. Zenit managed 1 against a 2.40 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line. CSKA Moscow managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.