Zenit 0-1 CSKA Moscow – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Zenit at 43% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Zenit vs CSKA Moscow encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

Zenit welcome CSKA Moscow to Saint-Petersburg Stadium in Premier League (matchday 28). Kick-off is Saturday 11 May 2024 at 18:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Zenit have gone 5W 3D 2L — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W W L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

At home, Zenit have gone 6W 2D 2L in their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.

CSKA Moscow — last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L D L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

CSKA Moscow away from home: 1W 7D 2L from their last 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Zenit carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Zenit have won 2, CSKA Moscow 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 3 Sep 2023, ended Zenit 1–1 CSKA Moscow — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Zenit in-play and half-time data (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 57%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.

CSKA Moscow in-play and half-time data (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; they lead at the break 51% of the time; of the 29 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 56%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zenit 49% versus CSKA Moscow 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zenit 53% | CSKA Moscow 60%). Note also that CSKA Moscow surrender HT leads in 31% of cases while Zenit recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 57% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Zenit 1.44 xG and CSKA Moscow 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zenit attack 0.848 / defence 0.791 | CSKA Moscow attack 1.223 / defence 1.241. League average goals — home 1.365 / away 1.211. CSKA Moscow's defence rating of 1.241 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Zenit's projected output up. CSKA Moscow have an above-average attack rating of 1.223, which lifts their away xG to 1.17. Zenit have a tight defence (rating 0.791), which is pulling CSKA Moscow's projected output down. Data: built from Zenit's last 57 games and CSKA Moscow's last 57.

Result probabilities: Zenit 43% | Draw 26% | CSKA Moscow 31%. Fair-value odds: Zenit 2.32 | Draw 3.84 | CSKA Moscow 3.25. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Zenit as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zenit offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.61 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Zenit 40% (last 10 home games) | CSKA Moscow 70% (last 10 away games).

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