Ural 2-1 FC UFA – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 39% as Ural take on FC UFA.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC UFA make the trip to Ekaterinburg Arena to face Ural in Premier League, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Saturday 23 April 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
Ural (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Ural, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ural at Ekaterinburg Arena this season: 1W 5D 4L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
FC UFA have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: D D W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC UFA, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, FC UFA have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Ural, 0.70 for FC UFA — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Ural lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 Oct 2021, ended 1–0 with Ural winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Ural — key trading statistics (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 8% of games (home games); they fail to score in 56% of games.
FC UFA — key trading statistics (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ural 32% versus FC UFA 64%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ural 24% | FC UFA 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ural 0.72 xG and FC UFA 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ural attack 0.553 / defence 0.995 | FC UFA attack 0.752 / defence 1.245. League average goals — home 1.049 / away 1.176. Ural's attack strength of 0.553 is below the league average — the 0.72 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. FC UFA bring a strong defensive rating of 1.245 — this is suppressing Ural's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 25 Ural games / 25 FC UFA games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ural 26% | Draw 39% | FC UFA 35%. Fair-value odds: Ural 3.85 | Draw 2.56 | FC UFA 2.86. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 22% | BTTS probability 32% | Total xG 1.60. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 78% probability — total xG of 1.60 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Ural's lower xG of 0.72 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 32%.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 26% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.60 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 22% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 32% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ural 20% | FC UFA 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ural vs FC UFA | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Ekaterinburg Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Apr 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ural 26% | Draw 39% | FC UFA 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 22% | BTTS 32% | xG Ural 0.72 / FC UFA 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Ural attack 0.553 / def 0.995 | FC UFA attack 0.752 / def 1.245 | league avg home 1.049 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Draw (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.72
Ural xG
Expected Goals
0.88
FC UFA xG
32%
BTTS
49%
Over 1.5
22%
Over 2.5
8%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ural vs FC UFA kick off?
Ural vs FC UFA kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 23 April 2022 at Ekaterinburg Arena.
What was the final score in Ural vs FC UFA?
Ural 2 - 1 FC UFA.
Where is Ural vs FC UFA being played?
The match is being played at Ekaterinburg Arena.
What competition is Ural vs FC UFA part of?
Ural vs FC UFA is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Ural vs FC UFA?
Our statistical model gives Ural a 26% chance of winning, FC UFA a 35% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Ural vs FC UFA?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both Ural and FC UFA will score (BTTS).
Will Ural vs FC UFA have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 22%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ural and FC UFA?
Record (1 meetings): Ural 1W | Draws 0 | FC UFA 0W.
What form are Ural and FC UFA in?
Ural (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. FC UFA (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Ural's attacking strength (0.55x league average) is weighed against FC UFA's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.72. Flip it around — FC UFA's attack (0.75x) against Ural's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 21.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (16.0%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 52% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
26%
3.81
39%
2.59
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
20.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
17.7%
Away win
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.72
Ural xG
Total xG
1.60
0.88
FC UFA xG
3.81
26%
Home win
2.59
39%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
48%
Over 1.5
2.08
52%
Under 1.5
1.92
22%
Over 2.5
4.55
78%
Under 2.5
1.28
8%
Over 3.5
12.50
92%
Under 3.5
1.09
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.14
68%
BTTS No
1.47
Clean Sheet
41%
2.41
49%
2.06
Win to Nil
11%
9.19
17%
5.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 20.1 | 17.7 | 7.8 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.6 | 12.8 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ural vs FC UFA?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 21.8%.
How many goals are Ural and FC UFA expected to score?
The model projects 0.72 expected goals for Ural and 0.88 for FC UFA, a combined total of 1.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Ural vs FC UFA?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Ural come into this having played 25 games, going 4W 9D 12L for 0.84 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-L-L. The sample for Ural is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC UFA sit at 0.88 PPG from 25 outings (4W 10D 11L), a run that reads D-D-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for FC UFA is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.84 PPG for Ural against 0.88 for FC UFA. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Ural's home form reads 1W 6D 5L across 12 games on their own ground, a 0.75 PPG return.
Away from home, FC UFA have taken 0.75 points per game from 12 outings (2W 3D 7L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ural are averaging 0.64 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; FC UFA are on 0.92 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC UFA in 64%.
Last 25 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ural
Blended
FC UFA
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ural and FC UFA in coming into this match?
Ural have gone 4W 9D 12L in their last 25 games (0.84 PPG), while FC UFA have gone 4W 10D 11L in their last 25 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ural at home or FC UFA away?
Ural's home record (0.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ural at home: 0.75 PPG; FC UFA away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Ural
0
Draws
0
FC UFA
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ural and FC UFA?
From 2 meetings on record, Ural have won 2, FC UFA have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ural and FC UFA last play each other?
They last met on 23 April 2022, when Ural 2-1 FC UFA.
Who has won more matches between Ural and FC UFA?
Ural have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ural see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
FC UFA see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ural 25%, FC UFA 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 8% for Ural and 42% for FC UFA.
On the defensive side: Ural keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Ural have failed to score in 67% of games; FC UFA in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ural home games / FC UFA away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ural play FC UFA?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Ural's recent matches and 50% of FC UFA's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ural vs FC UFA usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 8% of Ural's recent games and 42% of FC UFA's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Ural defy the odds to beat FC UFA 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ural beat FC UFA 2-1 at Ekaterinburg Arena, Regular Season - 26, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ural 0.72 xG and FC UFA 0.88 xG, a combined 1.60. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Ural beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ural attack 0.55 / defence 0.99 against FC UFA attack 0.75 / defence 1.25, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ural 26% | Draw 39% | FC UFA 35%, with the draw its most likely call at 39%. The actual Ural win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 22%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 49% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 30% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ural 24%, FC UFA 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ural's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did.
FC UFA's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ural 0.84 PPG, FC UFA 0.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ural win broke the near-deadlock. Ural (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.42 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.