Ural 2-1 Baltika – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Baltika at 46% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ural vs Baltika encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ural and Baltika meet at Ekaterinburg Arena in Premier League (matchday 27). This fixture gets under way on Monday 6 May 2024 at 14:45 UK time.
Current Form
Ural's record over their last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). Last five: L W D L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Ural's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 home games (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Baltika (all games): 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Baltika away from home: 1W 2D 7L from their last 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Baltika are 0.80 PPG clear of Ural over their recent games (1.40 vs 0.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Ural edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.0 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 19 Aug 2023, ended Ural 1–0 Baltika — a Ural win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Ural half-time and goal-timing data (last 26 games, 13 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Baltika half-time and goal-timing data (last 26 games, 13 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ural 50% versus Baltika 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ural 50% | Baltika 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ural 1.35 xG and Baltika 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ural attack 0.902 / defence 1.154 | Baltika attack 1.207 / defence 1.112. League average goals — home 1.348 / away 1.232. Baltika have an above-average attack rating of 1.207, which lifts their away xG to 1.72. Data: built from Ural's last 56 games and Baltika's last 26.
Result probabilities: Ural 30% | Draw 24% | Baltika 46%. Fair-value odds: Ural 3.34 | Draw 4.09 | Baltika 2.19. Baltika hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.35 / 1.72) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Baltika as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Baltika if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.07 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Ural 60% (last 10 home games) | Baltika 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ural vs Baltika | Competition: Premier League, matchday 27 | Venue: Ekaterinburg Arena • Kick-off: Monday 6 May 2024 at 14:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ural 30% | Draw 24% | Baltika 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% (Under 41%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG Ural 1.35 / Baltika 1.72 • Poisson strength factors: Ural attack 0.902 / def 1.154 | Baltika attack 1.207 / def 1.112 | league avg home 1.348 / away 1.232 • Poisson stance: Baltika (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Ural xG
Expected Goals
1.72
Baltika xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Ural vs Baltika FAQs
What time does Ural vs Baltika kick off?
Ural vs Baltika kicked off at 14:45 UK time on Monday 6 May 2024 at Ekaterinburg Arena.
What was the final score in Ural vs Baltika?
Ural 2 - 1 Baltika.
Where is Ural vs Baltika being played?
The match is being played at Ekaterinburg Arena.
What competition is Ural vs Baltika part of?
Ural vs Baltika is a Premier League fixture (matchday 27) (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Ural vs Baltika?
Our statistical model gives Ural a 30% chance of winning, Baltika a 46% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Baltika the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ural vs Baltika?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Ural and Baltika will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Ural vs Baltika have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Ural's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Baltika's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.35. Flip it around — Baltika's attack (1.21x) against Ural's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.72.
These ratings are built from Ural's last 56 games and Baltika's last 26 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 2-1 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Baltika Win
30%
3.34
24%
4.09
46%
2.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Ural xG
Total xG
3.07
1.72
Baltika xG
3.34
30%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
2.19
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
18%
5.56
26%
3.87
Win to Nil
5%
18.59
12%
8.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 8.0 | 6.8 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 10.8 | 9.3 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.3 | 6.3 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Ural vs Baltika Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Ural vs Baltika?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Ural and Baltika expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Ural and 1.72 for Baltika, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Ural vs Baltika?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Ural come into this having played 26 games, going 6W 7D 13L for 0.96 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-L-D.
On the other side, Baltika sit at 1.00 PPG from 26 outings (7W 5D 14L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.96 PPG for Ural against 1.00 for Baltika. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Ural's home form reads 4W 3D 6L across their last 13 home games, a 1.15 PPG return.
Away from home, Baltika have taken 0.38 points per game from their last 13 away games (1W 2D 10L). That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Baltika's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ural come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ural are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Baltika are on 1.08 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 26 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ural
Blended
Baltika
Blended
Ural (Home) vs Baltika (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Ural
Blended
Baltika
Blended
❓ Ural vs Baltika Form FAQs
What form are Ural and Baltika in coming into this match?
Ural have gone 6W 7D 13L in their last 26 games (0.96 PPG), while Baltika have gone 7W 5D 14L in their last 26 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ural at home or Baltika away?
Ural's home record (1.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ural at home: 1.15 PPG; Baltika away: 0.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 2 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2023 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent in our data was on 6 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Ural
0
Draws
0
Baltika
Recent Meetings
❓ Ural vs Baltika H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Ural and Baltika?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Ural have won 2, Baltika have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ural and Baltika last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 May 2024: Ural 2-1 Baltika.
Who has won more matches between Ural and Baltika?
Ural have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ural are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Baltika see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ural 62%, Baltika 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Ural) and 38% (Baltika).
On the defensive side: Ural have failed to score in 38% of games; Baltika in 62%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ural home games / Baltika away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Ural vs Baltika Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Ural and Baltika matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Ural's recent matches and 38% of Baltika's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Ural and Baltika matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Ural's recent games and 38% of Baltika's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ural and Baltika matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Ural's recent matches and 54% of Baltika's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Ural defy the odds to beat Baltika 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ural beat Baltika 2-1 at Ekaterinburg Arena, Regular Season - 27, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ural 1.35 xG and Baltika 1.72 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ural attack 0.90 / defence 1.15 against Baltika attack 1.21 / defence 1.11, drawn from 56/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ural 30% | Draw 24% | Baltika 46%, with Baltika to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Ural win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ural 50%, Baltika 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ural's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Baltika's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ural 0.96 PPG, Baltika 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ural win broke the near-deadlock. Ural (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.