Ural 2-0 Arsenal Tula – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Arsenal Tula at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ural vs Arsenal Tula encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees Arsenal Tula travel to Ekaterinburg Arena to take on Ural. The game is scheduled for Monday 27 September 2021, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ural stand at 0W 3D 5L from 8 Premier League matches — 0.38 PPG. Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 0.25 goals per game and conceding 1.62 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Ural, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ural have posted 0W 3D 2L at Ekaterinburg Arena — 0.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Arsenal Tula — All Games: 2W 2D 4L from 8 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.12. Conceding 2.12 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 88% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Arsenal Tula, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Arsenal Tula away from home this season: 1W 0D 3L from 4 away games — 0.75 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.75 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Arsenal Tula's 1.00 PPG return is 0.62 points per game ahead of Ural's 0.38 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Profile
Ural in-play tendencies (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games); they fail to score in 75% of games.
Arsenal Tula in-play tendencies (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ural 25% versus Arsenal Tula 88%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ural 25% | Arsenal Tula 88%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ural 1.09 xG and Arsenal Tula 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ural attack 0.625 / defence 1.072 | Arsenal Tula attack 1.069 / defence 1.536. League average goals — home 1.133 / away 1.200. Ural's attack strength of 0.625 is below the league average — the 1.09 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Arsenal Tula bring a strong defensive rating of 1.536 — this is suppressing Ural's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 8 Ural games / 8 Arsenal Tula games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ural 28% | Draw 29% | Arsenal Tula 42%. Fair-value odds: Ural 3.57 | Draw 3.45 | Arsenal Tula 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Arsenal Tula as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Arsenal Tula offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Ural 40% | Arsenal Tula 100% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ural vs Arsenal Tula | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Ekaterinburg Arena • Kick-off: Monday 27 Sep 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ural 28% | Draw 29% | Arsenal Tula 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Ural 1.09 / Arsenal Tula 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Ural attack 0.625 / def 1.072 | Arsenal Tula attack 1.069 / def 1.536 | league avg home 1.133 / away 1.200 • Poisson stance: Arsenal Tula (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Ural xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Arsenal Tula xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ural vs Arsenal Tula kick off?
Ural vs Arsenal Tula kicked off at 15:00 on Monday 27 September 2021 at Ekaterinburg Arena.
What was the final score in Ural vs Arsenal Tula?
Ural 2 - 0 Arsenal Tula.
Where is Ural vs Arsenal Tula being played?
The match is being played at Ekaterinburg Arena.
What competition is Ural vs Arsenal Tula part of?
Ural vs Arsenal Tula is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Ural vs Arsenal Tula?
Our statistical model gives Ural a 28% chance of winning, Arsenal Tula a 42% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Arsenal Tula the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ural vs Arsenal Tula?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Ural and Arsenal Tula will score (BTTS).
Will Ural vs Arsenal Tula have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ural and Arsenal Tula?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ural and Arsenal Tula in?
Ural (all comps): 0W-3D-5L in 8 | 0.38 PPG | GF 0.25 / GA 1.62 | L5 L-L-D-L-D. Arsenal Tula (all comps): 2W-2D-4L in 8 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.12 | L5 L-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Ural's attacking strength (0.62x league average) is weighed against Arsenal Tula's defensive record (1.54x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.09. The same calculation in reverse, Arsenal Tula's attack versus Ural's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 0-1 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Arsenal Tula Win
28%
3.52
29%
3.40
42%
2.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Ural xG
Total xG
2.46
1.38
Arsenal Tula xG
3.52
28%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
2.37
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
25%
3.96
34%
2.97
Win to Nil
7%
13.94
14%
7.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 11.7 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.7 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 6.9 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ural vs Arsenal Tula?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Ural and Arsenal Tula expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Ural and 1.38 for Arsenal Tula, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Ural vs Arsenal Tula?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ural come into this having played 8 games, going 0W 3D 5L for 0.38 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-D. The sample for Ural is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Arsenal Tula sit at 1.00 PPG from 8 outings (2W 2D 4L), a run that reads L-D-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Arsenal Tula is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Arsenal Tula carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.62 PPG clear of Ural — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Ural's home form reads 0W 3D 1L across 4 games on their own ground, a 0.75 PPG return.
Away from home, Arsenal Tula have taken 0.75 points per game from 4 outings (1W 0D 3L).
The Goals Picture
Ural are averaging 0.25 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Arsenal Tula are on 1.50 scored and 2.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ural have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games; Arsenal Tula in 88%.
Last 8 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ural
Blended
Arsenal Tula
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ural and Arsenal Tula in coming into this match?
Ural have gone 0W 3D 5L in their last 8 games (0.38 PPG), while Arsenal Tula have gone 2W 2D 4L in their last 8 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ural at home or Arsenal Tula away?
Ural's home record (0.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ural at home: 0.75 PPG; Arsenal Tula away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ural and Arsenal Tula runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 May 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Ural
0
Draws
0
Arsenal Tula
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ural and Arsenal Tula?
From 2 meetings on record, Ural have won 2, Arsenal Tula have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ural and Arsenal Tula last play each other?
They last met on 21 May 2022, when Arsenal Tula 1-2 Ural.
Who has won more matches between Ural and Arsenal Tula?
Ural have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ural see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Arsenal Tula are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Ural at 50%, Arsenal Tula at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 0% (Ural) and 100% (Arsenal Tula).
On the defensive side: Ural have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ural home games / Arsenal Tula away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ural play Arsenal Tula?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Ural's games and 100% of Arsenal Tula's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ural vs Arsenal Tula usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Ural's recent games and 100% of Arsenal Tula's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ural and Arsenal Tula tend to score early?
Ural have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Arsenal Tula in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ural cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Arsenal Tula.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ural beat Arsenal Tula 2-0 at Ekaterinburg Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ural 1.09 xG and Arsenal Tula 1.38 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Ural beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Arsenal Tula landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ural attack 0.62 / defence 1.07 against Arsenal Tula attack 1.07 / defence 1.54, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ural 28% | Draw 29% | Arsenal Tula 42%, with Arsenal Tula to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Ural win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ural 25%, Arsenal Tula 88%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ural's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not.
Arsenal Tula's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 88% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Arsenal Tula arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.38. Form was overturned, with Ural winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Ural (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm. Arsenal Tula (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.