Torpedo Moskva 0-2 Zenit – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Zenit at 71% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Torpedo Moskva vs Zenit encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 17 as Torpedo Moskva welcome Zenit to Stadion Luzhniki. Kick-off is set for Saturday 12 November 2022 at 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Torpedo Moskva have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Torpedo Moskva, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Torpedo Moskva at Stadion Luzhniki this season: 1W 1D 6L from 8 home games — 0.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game.
Zenit — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 2.50 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Zenit, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zenit away from home this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.90 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Zenit's 2.50 PPG return is 2.00 points per game ahead of Torpedo Moskva's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Torpedo Moskva, 1 for Zenit and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2022, ended 0–2 with Zenit winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Torpedo Moskva in-play and half-time data (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 62% of games.
Zenit in-play and half-time data (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 62% of the time.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Torpedo Moskva 31% | Zenit 38%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Torpedo Moskva 31% | Zenit 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Torpedo Moskva 0.40 xG and Zenit 1.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Torpedo Moskva attack 0.456 / defence 1.196 | Zenit attack 1.156 / defence 0.511. League average goals — home 1.693 / away 1.281. Torpedo Moskva's attack strength of 0.456 is below the league average — the 0.40 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Zenit's defence strength of 0.511 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 16 Torpedo Moskva games / 46 Zenit games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Torpedo Moskva 7% | Draw 23% | Zenit 71%. Fair-value odds: Torpedo Moskva 14.29 | Draw 4.35 | Zenit 1.41. The model has a clear lean to Zenit (71%) — a 64pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 28% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No has firm model support at 72% — Torpedo Moskva's lower xG of 0.40 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 28%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Zenit as the most likely outcome at 71% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.17 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 28% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Torpedo Moskva 38% | Zenit 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Torpedo Moskva vs Zenit | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadion Luzhniki • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Nov 2022, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Torpedo Moskva 7% | Draw 23% | Zenit 71% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 28% | xG Torpedo Moskva 0.40 / Zenit 1.77 • Poisson strength factors: Torpedo Moskva attack 0.456 / def 1.196 | Zenit attack 1.156 / def 0.511 | league avg home 1.693 / away 1.281 • Poisson stance: Zenit (71%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.40
Torpedo Moskva xG
Expected Goals
1.77
Zenit xG
28%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Torpedo Moskva vs Zenit kick off?
Torpedo Moskva vs Zenit kicked off at 13:30 on Saturday 12 November 2022 at Stadion Luzhniki.
What was the final score in Torpedo Moskva vs Zenit?
Torpedo Moskva 0 - 2 Zenit.
Where is Torpedo Moskva vs Zenit being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Luzhniki.
What competition is Torpedo Moskva vs Zenit part of?
Torpedo Moskva vs Zenit is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Torpedo Moskva vs Zenit?
Our statistical model gives Torpedo Moskva a 7% chance of winning, Zenit a 71% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Zenit the favourite.
Will both teams score in Torpedo Moskva vs Zenit?
Our model estimates a 28% probability that both Torpedo Moskva and Zenit will score (BTTS).
Will Torpedo Moskva vs Zenit have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Torpedo Moskva and Zenit?
Record (1 meetings): Torpedo Moskva 0W | Draws 0 | Zenit 1W.
What form are Torpedo Moskva and Zenit in?
Torpedo Moskva (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Zenit (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 3.20 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Torpedo Moskva's attacking strength (0.46x league average) is weighed against Zenit's defensive record (0.51x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.40. The same calculation in reverse, Zenit's attack versus Torpedo Moskva's defence, projects 1.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 19.3%. Close behind: 0-2 (18.0%), 0-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zenit Win
7%
14.86
23%
4.41
71%
1.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
20.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
18.0%
Away win
0 – 0
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.40
Torpedo Moskva xG
Total xG
2.17
1.77
Zenit xG
14.86
7%
Home win
4.41
23%
Draw
1.42
71%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
28%
BTTS Yes
3.58
72%
BTTS No
1.39
Clean Sheet
17%
5.88
67%
1.48
Win to Nil
1%
87.41
48%
2.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 20.3 | 18.0 | 10.6 | 4.7 | 1.7 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 8.0 | 7.1 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Torpedo Moskva vs Zenit?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.3%.
How many goals are Torpedo Moskva and Zenit expected to score?
The model projects 0.40 expected goals for Torpedo Moskva and 1.77 for Zenit, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Torpedo Moskva vs Zenit?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 71%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Torpedo Moskva's recent record stands at 1W 3D 12L from 16 games, a 0.38 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Torpedo Moskva is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Zenit, meanwhile, have gone 12W 3D 1L across 16 games — 2.44 PPG, with D-W-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Zenit is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Zenit by 2.06 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Torpedo Moskva heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Torpedo Moskva have managed 1W 1D 6L from 8 games — 0.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Zenit's away record stands at 5W 3D 0L across 8 trips, a 2.25 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zenit come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Torpedo Moskva are averaging 0.44 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Zenit are on 2.81 scored and 0.44 conceded.
Defensively: Zenit in 62% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Torpedo Moskva
Blended
Zenit
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Torpedo Moskva and Zenit in coming into this match?
Torpedo Moskva have gone 1W 3D 12L in their last 16 games (0.38 PPG), while Zenit have gone 12W 3D 1L in their last 16 (2.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Torpedo Moskva at home or Zenit away?
Zenit's away record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Torpedo Moskva at home: 0.50 PPG; Zenit away: 2.25 PPG.
Have Torpedo Moskva or Zenit been keeping clean sheets recently?
Torpedo Moskva have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Zenit in 62%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 November 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Torpedo Moskva
0
Draws
2
Zenit
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Torpedo Moskva and Zenit?
From 2 meetings on record, Torpedo Moskva have won 0, Zenit have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Torpedo Moskva and Zenit last play each other?
They last met on 12 November 2022, when Torpedo Moskva 0-2 Zenit.
Who has won more matches between Torpedo Moskva and Zenit?
Zenit have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Torpedo Moskva are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Zenit are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Torpedo Moskva 38%, Zenit 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Torpedo Moskva) and 38% (Zenit).
On the defensive side: Zenit in 62%; Torpedo Moskva have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Torpedo Moskva home games / Zenit away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Torpedo Moskva play Zenit?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Torpedo Moskva's recent matches and 38% of Zenit's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Torpedo Moskva vs Zenit usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Torpedo Moskva's recent games and 38% of Zenit's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Torpedo Moskva and Zenit tend to score early?
Torpedo Moskva have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Zenit in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Zenit cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Torpedo Moskva.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zenit beat Torpedo Moskva 0-2 at Stadion Luzhniki, Regular Season - 17, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Torpedo Moskva 0.40 xG and Zenit 1.77 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Torpedo Moskva attack 0.46 / defence 1.20 against Zenit attack 1.16 / defence 0.51, drawn from 16/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Torpedo Moskva 7% | Draw 23% | Zenit 71%, with Zenit to win its most likely call at 71%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 28% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Torpedo Moskva 31%, Zenit 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 34%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Torpedo Moskva's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 62% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Zenit's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 62% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Zenit arrived the stronger side — 2.44 PPG against 0.38. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.