Spartak Moscow 0-0 Nizhny Novgorod – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Spartak Moscow at 67% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Spartak Moscow vs Nizhny Novgorod encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 29 as Spartak Moscow welcome Nizhny Novgorod to Otkritie Bank Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 28 May 2023 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Spartak Moscow stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters this season, Spartak Moscow have posted 6W 4D 0L at Otkritie Bank Arena — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Spartak Moscow are significantly better at Otkritie Bank Arena than their overall form suggests.
Nizhny Novgorod — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Nizhny Novgorod's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Spartak Moscow are in the better shape of the two on current Premier League data — 0.80 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Spartak Moscow, 1 for Nizhny Novgorod and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Oct 2022, ended 2–1 with Spartak Moscow winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Spartak Moscow in-play and half-time data (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Nizhny Novgorod in-play and half-time data (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Spartak Moscow 67% and Nizhny Novgorod 53% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Spartak Moscow 55% | Nizhny Novgorod 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spartak Moscow 2.30 xG and Nizhny Novgorod 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spartak Moscow attack 1.342 / defence 1.053 | Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.658 / defence 1.141. League average goals — home 1.501 / away 1.355. Spartak Moscow carry an above-average attack strength of 1.342 — their λ of 2.30 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 58 Spartak Moscow games / 58 Nizhny Novgorod games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Spartak Moscow 67% | Draw 21% | Nizhny Novgorod 13%. Fair-value odds: Spartak Moscow 1.49 | Draw 4.76 | Nizhny Novgorod 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Spartak Moscow (67%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Spartak Moscow at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.24 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Spartak Moscow 70% | Nizhny Novgorod 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spartak Moscow vs Nizhny Novgorod | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Otkritie Bank Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 28 May 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spartak Moscow 67% | Draw 21% | Nizhny Novgorod 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 56% | xG Spartak Moscow 2.30 / Nizhny Novgorod 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Spartak Moscow attack 1.342 / def 1.053 | Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.658 / def 1.141 | league avg home 1.501 / away 1.355 • Poisson stance: Spartak Moscow (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.30
Spartak Moscow xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Nizhny Novgorod xG
56%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Spartak Moscow vs Nizhny Novgorod kick off?
Spartak Moscow vs Nizhny Novgorod kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 28 May 2023 at Otkritie Bank Arena.
What was the final score in Spartak Moscow vs Nizhny Novgorod?
Spartak Moscow 0 - 0 Nizhny Novgorod.
Where is Spartak Moscow vs Nizhny Novgorod being played?
The match is being played at Otkritie Bank Arena.
What competition is Spartak Moscow vs Nizhny Novgorod part of?
Spartak Moscow vs Nizhny Novgorod is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Spartak Moscow vs Nizhny Novgorod?
Our statistical model gives Spartak Moscow a 67% chance of winning, Nizhny Novgorod a 13% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Spartak Moscow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Spartak Moscow vs Nizhny Novgorod?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Spartak Moscow and Nizhny Novgorod will score (BTTS).
Will Spartak Moscow vs Nizhny Novgorod have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Spartak Moscow and Nizhny Novgorod?
Record (3 meetings): Spartak Moscow 1W | Draws 1 | Nizhny Novgorod 1W.
What form are Spartak Moscow and Nizhny Novgorod in?
Spartak Moscow (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-L-D-W. Nizhny Novgorod (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Spartak Moscow's attack rating (1.34) and Nizhny Novgorod's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 2.30 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Nizhny Novgorod's attack versus Spartak Moscow's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-1 (9.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Spartak Moscow Win
67%
1.50
21%
4.80
13%
7.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.30
Spartak Moscow xG
Total xG
3.24
0.94
Nizhny Novgorod xG
1.50
67%
Home win
4.80
21%
Draw
7.96
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
39%
2.56
10%
9.97
Win to Nil
26%
3.84
1%
79.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.0 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.7 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.9 | 7.5 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 4 | 4.6 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Spartak Moscow vs Nizhny Novgorod?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Spartak Moscow and Nizhny Novgorod expected to score?
The model projects 2.30 expected goals for Spartak Moscow and 0.94 for Nizhny Novgorod, a combined total of 3.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Spartak Moscow vs Nizhny Novgorod?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 58 outings, Spartak Moscow have picked up 1.57 PPG on a 25W 16D 17L record — W-D-L-D-W across the most recent five.
Nizhny Novgorod's form line: 15W 15D 28L from 58 games, 1.03 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-W.
Put side by side, Spartak Moscow are the form team by 0.54 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Nizhny Novgorod.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Spartak Moscow have posted 1.86 PPG from 29 outings (15W 9D 5L).
On the road, Nizhny Novgorod have gone 7W 8D 14L from 29 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Spartak Moscow come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Spartak Moscow are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Nizhny Novgorod are on 1.00 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Spartak Moscow have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 58 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spartak Moscow
Current Season
Nizhny Novgorod
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Spartak Moscow and Nizhny Novgorod in coming into this match?
Spartak Moscow have gone 25W 16D 17L in their last 58 games (1.57 PPG), while Nizhny Novgorod have gone 15W 15D 28L in their last 58 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spartak Moscow at home or Nizhny Novgorod away?
Spartak Moscow's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spartak Moscow at home: 1.86 PPG; Nizhny Novgorod away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Spartak Moscow and Nizhny Novgorod runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Spartak Moscow have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Dec 2024, when Spartak Moscow won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Spartak Moscow's record when hosting Nizhny Novgorod specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Spartak Moscow
3
Draws
1
Nizhny Novgorod
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Spartak Moscow and Nizhny Novgorod?
From 10 meetings on record, Spartak Moscow have won 6, Nizhny Novgorod have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Spartak Moscow and Nizhny Novgorod last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Nizhny Novgorod 1-2 Spartak Moscow.
Who has won more matches between Spartak Moscow and Nizhny Novgorod?
Spartak Moscow have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Spartak Moscow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Nizhny Novgorod see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Spartak Moscow 69%, Nizhny Novgorod 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Spartak Moscow) and 52% (Nizhny Novgorod). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Nizhny Novgorod in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spartak Moscow home games / Nizhny Novgorod away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Spartak Moscow play Nizhny Novgorod?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Spartak Moscow's games and 55% of Nizhny Novgorod's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Spartak Moscow vs Nizhny Novgorod usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Spartak Moscow's matches and 52% of Nizhny Novgorod's.
Do Spartak Moscow and Nizhny Novgorod tend to score early?
Spartak Moscow have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Nizhny Novgorod in 52% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Spartak Moscow's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Otkritie Bank Arena, Regular Season - 29, as Spartak Moscow and Nizhny Novgorod drew 0-0 in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spartak Moscow 2.30 xG and Nizhny Novgorod 0.94 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Spartak Moscow fell 2.3 short of their projected output. Nizhny Novgorod landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spartak Moscow attack 1.34 / defence 1.05 against Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.66 / defence 1.14, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spartak Moscow 67% | Draw 21% | Nizhny Novgorod 13%, with Spartak Moscow to win its most likely call at 67%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spartak Moscow 55%, Nizhny Novgorod 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spartak Moscow's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Nizhny Novgorod's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Spartak Moscow arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 1.03. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Spartak Moscow (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.97 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Nizhny Novgorod (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.