Spartak Moscow 5-2 Krylia Sovetov – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Spartak Moscow at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Spartak Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Krylia Sovetov travel to Otkritie Bank Arena to take on Spartak Moscow. The game is scheduled for Sunday 9 October 2022, 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Spartak Moscow stand at 7W 0D 3L from 10 Premier League matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Spartak Moscow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Spartak Moscow at Otkritie Bank Arena this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Krylia Sovetov — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Krylia Sovetov, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Krylia Sovetov away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Spartak Moscow are in the better shape of the two on current Premier League data — 1.30 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Spartak Moscow register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Krylia Sovetov in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Spartak Moscow, 0 for Krylia Sovetov and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 May 2022, ended 2–1 with Spartak Moscow winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Spartak Moscow in-play tendencies (41 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Krylia Sovetov in-play tendencies (41 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Spartak Moscow 63% versus Krylia Sovetov 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Spartak Moscow 51% | Krylia Sovetov 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spartak Moscow 1.52 xG and Krylia Sovetov 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spartak Moscow attack 1.047 / defence 0.865 | Krylia Sovetov attack 0.941 / defence 0.881. League average goals — home 1.650 / away 1.262. Data: 41 Spartak Moscow games / 41 Krylia Sovetov games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Spartak Moscow 46% | Draw 30% | Krylia Sovetov 23%. Fair-value odds: Spartak Moscow 2.17 | Draw 3.33 | Krylia Sovetov 4.35. Spartak Moscow hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Spartak Moscow as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Spartak Moscow offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.55 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Spartak Moscow 60% | Krylia Sovetov 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spartak Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Otkritie Bank Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Oct 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spartak Moscow 46% | Draw 30% | Krylia Sovetov 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Spartak Moscow 1.52 / Krylia Sovetov 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Spartak Moscow attack 1.047 / def 0.865 | Krylia Sovetov attack 0.941 / def 0.881 | league avg home 1.650 / away 1.262 • Poisson stance: Spartak Moscow (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Spartak Moscow xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Krylia Sovetov xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Spartak Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov kick off?
Spartak Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 9 October 2022 at Otkritie Bank Arena.
What was the final score in Spartak Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov?
Spartak Moscow 5 - 2 Krylia Sovetov.
Where is Spartak Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov being played?
The match is being played at Otkritie Bank Arena.
What competition is Spartak Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov part of?
Spartak Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Spartak Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our statistical model gives Spartak Moscow a 46% chance of winning, Krylia Sovetov a 23% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Spartak Moscow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Spartak Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Spartak Moscow and Krylia Sovetov will score (BTTS).
Will Spartak Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Spartak Moscow and Krylia Sovetov?
Record (2 meetings): Spartak Moscow 2W | Draws 0 | Krylia Sovetov 0W.
What form are Spartak Moscow and Krylia Sovetov in?
Spartak Moscow (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. Krylia Sovetov (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Spartak Moscow's attack at 1.05x the league average against Krylia Sovetov's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 1.52 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Krylia Sovetov's attack versus Spartak Moscow's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 0-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Spartak Moscow Win
46%
2.16
30%
3.29
23%
4.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Spartak Moscow xG
Total xG
2.55
1.03
Krylia Sovetov xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
4.30
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
22%
4.58
Win to Nil
17%
6.02
5%
19.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 8.0 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 12.2 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Spartak Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Spartak Moscow and Krylia Sovetov expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Spartak Moscow and 1.03 for Krylia Sovetov, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Spartak Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Spartak Moscow come into this having played 41 games, going 17W 9D 15L for 1.46 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-W. The sample for Spartak Moscow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Krylia Sovetov sit at 1.27 PPG from 41 outings (14W 10D 17L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Krylia Sovetov is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Spartak Moscow on 1.46 PPG, Krylia Sovetov on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Spartak Moscow's home form reads 9W 5D 5L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.68 PPG return.
Away from home, Krylia Sovetov have taken 1.26 points per game from 19 outings (7W 3D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Spartak Moscow come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Spartak Moscow are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Krylia Sovetov are on 1.20 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Spartak Moscow have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 41 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spartak Moscow
Blended
Krylia Sovetov
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Spartak Moscow and Krylia Sovetov in coming into this match?
Spartak Moscow have gone 17W 9D 15L in their last 41 games (1.46 PPG), while Krylia Sovetov have gone 14W 10D 17L in their last 41 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spartak Moscow at home or Krylia Sovetov away?
Spartak Moscow's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spartak Moscow at home: 1.68 PPG; Krylia Sovetov away: 1.26 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Spartak Moscow and Krylia Sovetov runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 1 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Oct 2023, when Krylia Sovetov won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Spartak Moscow's record when hosting Krylia Sovetov specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Spartak Moscow
0
Draws
3
Krylia Sovetov
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Spartak Moscow and Krylia Sovetov?
From 10 meetings on record, Spartak Moscow have won 7, Krylia Sovetov have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Spartak Moscow and Krylia Sovetov last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2026, when Krylia Sovetov 2-1 Spartak Moscow.
Who has won more matches between Spartak Moscow and Krylia Sovetov?
Spartak Moscow have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Spartak Moscow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Krylia Sovetov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Spartak Moscow 68%, Krylia Sovetov 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Spartak Moscow) and 53% (Krylia Sovetov). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 16% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Krylia Sovetov in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spartak Moscow home games / Krylia Sovetov away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Spartak Moscow play Krylia Sovetov?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Spartak Moscow's games and 53% of Krylia Sovetov's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Spartak Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Spartak Moscow's matches and 53% of Krylia Sovetov's.
Do Spartak Moscow and Krylia Sovetov tend to score early?
Spartak Moscow have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Krylia Sovetov in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Spartak Moscow run riot with a 5-2 hammering of Krylia Sovetov.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Spartak Moscow beat Krylia Sovetov 5-2 at Otkritie Bank Arena, Regular Season - 12, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spartak Moscow 1.52 xG and Krylia Sovetov 1.03 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 5-2 for 7 actual goals. Spartak Moscow beat their projection by 3.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Krylia Sovetov outscored their 1.03 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spartak Moscow attack 1.05 / defence 0.86 against Krylia Sovetov attack 0.94 / defence 0.88, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spartak Moscow 46% | Draw 30% | Krylia Sovetov 23%, with Spartak Moscow to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spartak Moscow 51%, Krylia Sovetov 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spartak Moscow's trading profile (41 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (41 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Spartak Moscow 1.46 PPG, Krylia Sovetov 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Spartak Moscow win broke the near-deadlock. Spartak Moscow (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.63 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Krylia Sovetov (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.42 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.