Spartak Moscow 2-1 Krylia Sovetov – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Spartak Moscow at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Spartak Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Krylia Sovetov travel to Otkritie Bank Arena to take on Spartak Moscow. The game is scheduled for Sunday 1 May 2022, 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Spartak Moscow stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Spartak Moscow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Spartak Moscow at Otkritie Bank Arena this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Spartak Moscow are significantly better at Otkritie Bank Arena than their overall form suggests.
Krylia Sovetov — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Krylia Sovetov, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Krylia Sovetov away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Spartak Moscow 1.10 PPG, Krylia Sovetov 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Spartak Moscow, 0 for Krylia Sovetov and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 30 Jul 2021, ended 1–0 with Spartak Moscow winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Spartak Moscow in-play tendencies (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Krylia Sovetov in-play tendencies (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Spartak Moscow 58% versus Krylia Sovetov 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Spartak Moscow 42% | Krylia Sovetov 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spartak Moscow 1.33 xG and Krylia Sovetov 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spartak Moscow attack 0.933 / defence 1.120 | Krylia Sovetov attack 0.785 / defence 1.268. League average goals — home 1.125 / away 1.281. Krylia Sovetov bring a strong defensive rating of 1.268 — this is suppressing Spartak Moscow's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 Spartak Moscow games / 26 Krylia Sovetov games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Spartak Moscow 41% | Draw 29% | Krylia Sovetov 31%. Fair-value odds: Spartak Moscow 2.44 | Draw 3.45 | Krylia Sovetov 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Spartak Moscow as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Spartak Moscow offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.46 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Spartak Moscow 70% | Krylia Sovetov 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spartak Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Otkritie Bank Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 1 May 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spartak Moscow 41% | Draw 29% | Krylia Sovetov 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Spartak Moscow 1.33 / Krylia Sovetov 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Spartak Moscow attack 0.933 / def 1.120 | Krylia Sovetov attack 0.785 / def 1.268 | league avg home 1.125 / away 1.281 • Poisson stance: Spartak Moscow (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Spartak Moscow xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Krylia Sovetov xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Spartak Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov kick off?
Spartak Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 1 May 2022 at Otkritie Bank Arena.
What was the final score in Spartak Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov?
Spartak Moscow 2 - 1 Krylia Sovetov.
Where is Spartak Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov being played?
The match is being played at Otkritie Bank Arena.
What competition is Spartak Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov part of?
Spartak Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Spartak Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our statistical model gives Spartak Moscow a 41% chance of winning, Krylia Sovetov a 31% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Spartak Moscow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Spartak Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Spartak Moscow and Krylia Sovetov will score (BTTS).
Will Spartak Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Spartak Moscow and Krylia Sovetov?
Record (1 meetings): Spartak Moscow 1W | Draws 0 | Krylia Sovetov 0W.
What form are Spartak Moscow and Krylia Sovetov in?
Spartak Moscow (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-D-L. Krylia Sovetov (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Spartak Moscow's attack at 0.93x the league average against Krylia Sovetov's defence at 1.27x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Krylia Sovetov's attack versus Spartak Moscow's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 1-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Spartak Moscow Win
41%
2.46
29%
3.49
31%
3.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Spartak Moscow xG
Total xG
2.46
1.12
Krylia Sovetov xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
3.25
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
32%
3.08
26%
3.78
Win to Nil
13%
7.59
8%
12.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 12.8 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.5 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Spartak Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Spartak Moscow and Krylia Sovetov expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Spartak Moscow and 1.12 for Krylia Sovetov, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Spartak Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Spartak Moscow come into this having played 26 games, going 8W 7D 11L for 1.19 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-D-L. The sample for Spartak Moscow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Krylia Sovetov sit at 1.46 PPG from 26 outings (11W 5D 10L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Krylia Sovetov is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Spartak Moscow on 1.19 PPG, Krylia Sovetov on 1.46. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Spartak Moscow's home form reads 5W 4D 4L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.46 PPG return.
Away from home, Krylia Sovetov have taken 1.31 points per game from 13 outings (5W 2D 6L).
The Goals Picture
Spartak Moscow are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Krylia Sovetov are on 1.27 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Last 26 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spartak Moscow
Blended
Krylia Sovetov
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Spartak Moscow and Krylia Sovetov in coming into this match?
Spartak Moscow have gone 8W 7D 11L in their last 26 games (1.19 PPG), while Krylia Sovetov have gone 11W 5D 10L in their last 26 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spartak Moscow at home or Krylia Sovetov away?
Spartak Moscow's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spartak Moscow at home: 1.46 PPG; Krylia Sovetov away: 1.31 PPG.
Have Spartak Moscow or Krylia Sovetov been keeping clean sheets recently?
Spartak Moscow have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Krylia Sovetov in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Spartak Moscow and Krylia Sovetov runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 1 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Oct 2023, when Krylia Sovetov won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Spartak Moscow's record when hosting Krylia Sovetov specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Spartak Moscow
0
Draws
3
Krylia Sovetov
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Spartak Moscow and Krylia Sovetov?
From 10 meetings on record, Spartak Moscow have won 7, Krylia Sovetov have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Spartak Moscow and Krylia Sovetov last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2026, when Krylia Sovetov 2-1 Spartak Moscow.
Who has won more matches between Spartak Moscow and Krylia Sovetov?
Spartak Moscow have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Spartak Moscow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Krylia Sovetov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Spartak Moscow 69%, Krylia Sovetov 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Spartak Moscow) and 46% (Krylia Sovetov).
On the defensive side: Krylia Sovetov in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spartak Moscow home games / Krylia Sovetov away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Spartak Moscow play Krylia Sovetov?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Spartak Moscow's games and 54% of Krylia Sovetov's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Spartak Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Spartak Moscow's recent games and 46% of Krylia Sovetov's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Spartak Moscow and Krylia Sovetov tend to score early?
Spartak Moscow have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Krylia Sovetov in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Spartak Moscow edge out Krylia Sovetov 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Spartak Moscow beat Krylia Sovetov 2-1 at Otkritie Bank Arena, Regular Season - 27, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spartak Moscow 1.33 xG and Krylia Sovetov 1.12 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spartak Moscow attack 0.93 / defence 1.12 against Krylia Sovetov attack 0.79 / defence 1.27, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spartak Moscow 41% | Draw 29% | Krylia Sovetov 31%, with Spartak Moscow to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spartak Moscow 42%, Krylia Sovetov 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spartak Moscow's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Spartak Moscow 1.19 PPG, Krylia Sovetov 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Spartak Moscow win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.