Spartak Moscow 3-0 Krylia Sovetov – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Spartak Moscow at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Spartak Moscow face Krylia Sovetov.

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Analysis & Preview

Krylia Sovetov travel to Lukoil Arena to take on Spartak Moscow in Premier League (matchday 18). The game is scheduled for Saturday 9 December 2023 at 11:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Spartak Moscow stand at 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

Spartak Moscow at home: 6W 3D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.

Krylia Sovetov — last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L W D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Krylia Sovetov away from home: 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Spartak Moscow 1.70 PPG, Krylia Sovetov 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

Head to Head

The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Spartak Moscow, 2 for Krylia Sovetov and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.

The 4 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.8 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 1 Oct 2023, ended Spartak Moscow 0–4 Krylia Sovetov — a Krylia Sovetov win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Spartak Moscow in-play tendencies (last 47 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

Krylia Sovetov in-play tendencies (last 47 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Spartak Moscow 62% and Krylia Sovetov 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Spartak Moscow 57% | Krylia Sovetov 60%). Note also that Krylia Sovetov surrender HT leads in 25% of cases while Spartak Moscow recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 43% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Spartak Moscow 1.56 xG and Krylia Sovetov 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spartak Moscow attack 1.022 / defence 0.963 | Krylia Sovetov attack 1.091 / defence 1.039. League average goals — home 1.465 / away 1.048. Data: built from Spartak Moscow's last 47 games and Krylia Sovetov's last 47.

Result probabilities: Spartak Moscow 47% | Draw 26% | Krylia Sovetov 26%. Fair-value odds: Spartak Moscow 2.12 | Draw 3.78 | Krylia Sovetov 3.81. Spartak Moscow hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Spartak Moscow as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Spartak Moscow offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.66 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.

Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Spartak Moscow 50% (last 10 home games) | Krylia Sovetov 80% (last 10 away games).

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