Spartak Moscow 3-1 Khimki – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Khimki at 34%, yet other data sources diverge — this Spartak Moscow vs Khimki fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Khimki make the trip to Otkrytiye Arena to face Spartak Moscow in Premier League, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Saturday 11 September 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Spartak Moscow (all games): 2W 1D 3L across 6 Premier League fixtures this term — 1.17 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 0.83 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Spartak Moscow have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Otkrytiye Arena, Spartak Moscow have gone 1W 0D 2L this season (3 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Khimki's overall Premier League record this term: 1W 3D 2L from 6 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W D L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.83 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Khimki have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.17 PPG for Spartak Moscow against 1.00 for Khimki. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using overall form) — Spartak Moscow have seen both teams score in 67% of their games, Khimki in 67%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
Spartak Moscow goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (6 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games.
Khimki goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (6 games): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 33% of cases; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Spartak Moscow 50% versus Khimki 67%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Spartak Moscow 33% | Khimki 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spartak Moscow 1.09 xG and Khimki 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spartak Moscow attack 0.907 / defence 1.242 | Khimki attack 0.727 / defence 1.201. League average goals — home 1.005 / away 1.229. Khimki bring a strong defensive rating of 1.201 — this is suppressing Spartak Moscow's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 6 Spartak Moscow games / 6 Khimki games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Spartak Moscow 33% | Draw 33% | Khimki 34%. Fair-value odds: Spartak Moscow 3.03 | Draw 3.03 | Khimki 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Khimki as the most likely outcome at 34% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Khimki if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.21 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Spartak Moscow 67% | Khimki 67% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spartak Moscow vs Khimki | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Otkrytiye Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Sep 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spartak Moscow 33% | Draw 33% | Khimki 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 46% | xG Spartak Moscow 1.09 / Khimki 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Spartak Moscow attack 0.907 / def 1.242 | Khimki attack 0.727 / def 1.201 | league avg home 1.005 / away 1.229 • Poisson stance: Khimki (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Spartak Moscow xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Khimki xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Spartak Moscow vs Khimki kick off?
Spartak Moscow vs Khimki kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 11 September 2021 at Otkrytiye Arena.
What was the final score in Spartak Moscow vs Khimki?
Spartak Moscow 3 - 1 Khimki.
Where is Spartak Moscow vs Khimki being played?
The match is being played at Otkrytiye Arena.
What competition is Spartak Moscow vs Khimki part of?
Spartak Moscow vs Khimki is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Spartak Moscow vs Khimki?
Our statistical model gives Spartak Moscow a 33% chance of winning, Khimki a 34% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Khimki the favourite.
Will both teams score in Spartak Moscow vs Khimki?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Spartak Moscow and Khimki will score (BTTS).
Will Spartak Moscow vs Khimki have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Spartak Moscow and Khimki?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Spartak Moscow and Khimki in?
Spartak Moscow (all comps): 2W-1D-3L in 6 | 1.17 PPG | GF 0.83 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. Khimki (all comps): 1W-3D-2L in 6 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.83 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Spartak Moscow's attack rating (0.91) and Khimki's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.09 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Khimki's attack (0.73x) against Spartak Moscow's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.8%), 0-1 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Khimki Win
33%
3.01
33%
3.06
34%
2.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Spartak Moscow xG
Total xG
2.21
1.11
Khimki xG
3.01
33%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
2.94
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.15
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
33%
2.99
Win to Nil
11%
9.12
11%
8.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 12.2 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.4 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 7.3 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Spartak Moscow vs Khimki?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Spartak Moscow and Khimki expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Spartak Moscow and 1.11 for Khimki, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Spartak Moscow vs Khimki?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Spartak Moscow's recent record stands at 2W 1D 3L from 6 games, a 1.17 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Spartak Moscow, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Khimki, meanwhile, have gone 1W 3D 2L across 6 games — 1.00 PPG, with W-D-L-D-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Khimki, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.17 PPG for Spartak Moscow against 1.00 for Khimki. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Attack vs Defence
Spartak Moscow are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Khimki are on 0.83 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Khimki in 67%.
Last 6 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spartak Moscow
Early Season
Khimki
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Spartak Moscow and Khimki in coming into this match?
Spartak Moscow have gone 2W 1D 3L in their last 6 games (1.17 PPG), while Khimki have gone 1W 3D 2L in their last 6 (1.00 PPG).
Have Spartak Moscow or Khimki been keeping clean sheets recently?
Spartak Moscow have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Khimki in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Spartak Moscow have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Spartak Moscow won 5-0 on 23 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Spartak Moscow have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Khimki — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Spartak Moscow
1
Draws
1
Khimki
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Spartak Moscow and Khimki?
From 6 meetings on record, Spartak Moscow have won 4, Khimki have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Spartak Moscow and Khimki last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2025, when Spartak Moscow 5-0 Khimki.
Who has won more matches between Spartak Moscow and Khimki?
Spartak Moscow have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Spartak Moscow see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Khimki are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Spartak Moscow 50%, Khimki 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Spartak Moscow and 33% for Khimki.
On the defensive side: Spartak Moscow keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spartak Moscow home games / Khimki away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Spartak Moscow play Khimki?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Spartak Moscow's games and 67% of Khimki's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Spartak Moscow vs Khimki usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Spartak Moscow's recent games and 33% of Khimki's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Spartak Moscow and Khimki tend to score early?
Spartak Moscow have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Khimki in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Spartak Moscow cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Khimki.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Spartak Moscow beat Khimki 3-1 at Otkrytiye Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spartak Moscow 1.09 xG and Khimki 1.11 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Spartak Moscow beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spartak Moscow attack 0.91 / defence 1.24 against Khimki attack 0.73 / defence 1.20, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spartak Moscow 33% | Draw 33% | Khimki 34%, with Khimki to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual Spartak Moscow win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spartak Moscow 33%, Khimki 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spartak Moscow's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Khimki's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Spartak Moscow 1.17 PPG, Khimki 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Spartak Moscow win broke the near-deadlock. Spartak Moscow scored 3 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm. Khimki shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.