Spartak Moscow 0-2 Fakel – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Spartak Moscow at 48% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Spartak Moscow face Fakel.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Spartak Moscow welcome Fakel to Stadion Luzhniki in Premier League (matchday 20). Kick-off is Sunday 10 March 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Spartak Moscow have gone 4W 3D 3L — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W W L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Spartak Moscow at home: 7W 2D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Spartak Moscow are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Fakel — last 10 games: 4W 5D 1L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D L D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Fakel away from home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Spartak Moscow) versus 1.70 (Fakel). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Spartak Moscow have won 2, Fakel 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.0 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 28 Oct 2023, ended Spartak Moscow 0–2 Fakel — a Fakel win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Spartak Moscow in-play and half-time data (last 49 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Fakel in-play and half-time data (last 49 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Spartak Moscow 59% versus Fakel 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Spartak Moscow 57% | Fakel 35%). Note also that Fakel surrender HT leads in 46% of cases while Spartak Moscow recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 43% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spartak Moscow 1.42 xG and Fakel 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spartak Moscow attack 1.145 / defence 0.940 | Fakel attack 0.947 / defence 0.950. League average goals — home 1.309 / away 0.985. Data: built from Spartak Moscow's last 49 games and Fakel's last 49.
Result probabilities: Spartak Moscow 48% | Draw 32% | Fakel 21%. Fair-value odds: Spartak Moscow 2.10 | Draw 3.17 | Fakel 4.78. Spartak Moscow hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Spartak Moscow as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Spartak Moscow offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.30 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Spartak Moscow 50% (last 10 home games) | Fakel 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spartak Moscow vs Fakel | Competition: Premier League, matchday 20 | Venue: Stadion Luzhniki • Kick-off: Sunday 10 March 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spartak Moscow 48% | Draw 32% | Fakel 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Spartak Moscow 1.42 / Fakel 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Spartak Moscow attack 1.145 / def 0.940 | Fakel attack 0.947 / def 0.950 | league avg home 1.309 / away 0.985 • Poisson stance: Spartak Moscow (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Spartak Moscow xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Fakel xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Spartak Moscow vs Fakel FAQs
What time does Spartak Moscow vs Fakel kick off?
Spartak Moscow vs Fakel kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Sunday 10 March 2024 at Stadion Luzhniki.
What was the final score in Spartak Moscow vs Fakel?
Spartak Moscow 0 - 2 Fakel.
Where is Spartak Moscow vs Fakel being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Luzhniki.
What competition is Spartak Moscow vs Fakel part of?
Spartak Moscow vs Fakel is a Premier League fixture (matchday 20) (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Spartak Moscow vs Fakel?
Our statistical model gives Spartak Moscow a 48% chance of winning, Fakel a 21% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Spartak Moscow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Spartak Moscow vs Fakel?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Spartak Moscow and Fakel will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Spartak Moscow vs Fakel have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Spartak Moscow's attack at 1.15x the league average against Fakel's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.42 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fakel's attack versus Spartak Moscow's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Spartak Moscow's last 49 games and Fakel's last 49 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.6%), 0-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Spartak Moscow Win
48%
2.10
32%
3.17
21%
4.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Spartak Moscow xG
Total xG
2.30
0.88
Fakel xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
4.78
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
24%
4.15
Win to Nil
20%
5.05
5%
19.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 8.8 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.3 | 12.5 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 8.9 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Spartak Moscow vs Fakel Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Spartak Moscow vs Fakel?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Spartak Moscow and Fakel expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Spartak Moscow and 0.88 for Fakel, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Spartak Moscow vs Fakel?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 49 outings, Spartak Moscow have picked up 1.73 PPG on a 24W 13D 12L record — W-W-L-W-D across the most recent five.
Fakel's form line: 13W 18D 18L from 49 games, 1.16 PPG, last five D-L-D-D-D.
Put side by side, Spartak Moscow are the form team by 0.57 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Fakel.
Venue Form
On home soil, Spartak Moscow have posted 2.17 PPG from their last 24 home games (15W 7D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.73 PPG overall — Spartak Moscow are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Fakel have gone 5W 6D 13L from their last 24 away games — 0.88 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Spartak Moscow come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Spartak Moscow are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Fakel are on 1.06 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 49 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spartak Moscow
Blended
Fakel
Blended
Spartak Moscow (Home) vs Fakel (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Spartak Moscow
Blended
Fakel
Blended
❓ Spartak Moscow vs Fakel Form FAQs
What form are Spartak Moscow and Fakel in coming into this match?
Spartak Moscow have gone 24W 13D 12L in their last 49 games (1.73 PPG), while Fakel have gone 13W 18D 18L in their last 49 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spartak Moscow at home or Fakel away?
Spartak Moscow's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spartak Moscow at home: 2.17 PPG; Fakel away: 0.88 PPG.
Have Spartak Moscow or Fakel been keeping clean sheets recently?
Spartak Moscow have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Fakel in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 7 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from August 2022. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 16 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 27 Aug 2022, when Spartak Moscow won Fakel 1-4 Spartak Moscow.
Spartak Moscow's record when hosting Fakel specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
4
Spartak Moscow
1
Draws
2
Fakel
Recent Meetings
❓ Spartak Moscow vs Fakel H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Spartak Moscow and Fakel?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Spartak Moscow have won 4, Fakel have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Spartak Moscow and Fakel last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 September 2026: Spartak Moscow 1-0 Fakel.
Who has won more matches between Spartak Moscow and Fakel?
Spartak Moscow have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Spartak Moscow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Fakel are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Spartak Moscow 54%, Fakel 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Spartak Moscow) and 38% (Fakel).
On the defensive side: Spartak Moscow keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Fakel in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spartak Moscow home games / Fakel away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Spartak Moscow vs Fakel Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Spartak Moscow and Fakel matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Spartak Moscow's recent matches and 46% of Fakel's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Spartak Moscow and Fakel matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Spartak Moscow's recent games and 38% of Fakel's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Spartak Moscow and Fakel matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Spartak Moscow's recent matches and 62% of Fakel's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fakel cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Spartak Moscow.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fakel beat Spartak Moscow 0-2 at Stadion Luzhniki, Regular Season - 20, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spartak Moscow 1.42 xG and Fakel 0.88 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Spartak Moscow fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Fakel outscored their 0.88 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spartak Moscow attack 1.15 / defence 0.94 against Fakel attack 0.95 / defence 0.95, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spartak Moscow 48% | Draw 32% | Fakel 21%, with Spartak Moscow to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Fakel win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spartak Moscow 57%, Fakel 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spartak Moscow's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Fakel's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Spartak Moscow arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.16. Form was overturned, with Fakel winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Spartak Moscow (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fakel (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.79 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.46 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.