Spartak Moscow 2-2 CSKA Moscow – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Spartak Moscow at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Spartak Moscow face CSKA Moscow.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Spartak Moscow host CSKA Moscow at Lukoil Arena in Premier League (matchday 11). Kick-off is Sunday 8 October 2023 at 18:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Spartak Moscow — last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: D L W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Spartak Moscow at home: 6W 3D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Spartak Moscow are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, CSKA Moscow have recorded 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D D D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
On the road, CSKA Moscow have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Spartak Moscow at 1.60 PPG versus CSKA Moscow's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Spartak Moscow's games and 80% of CSKA Moscow's (from Spartak Moscow's last 10 home games and CSKA Moscow's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Spartak Moscow, 1 for CSKA Moscow and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 21 May 2023, ended Spartak Moscow 2–1 CSKA Moscow — a Spartak Moscow win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Spartak Moscow trading profile (last 40 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
CSKA Moscow trading profile (last 40 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 55% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Spartak Moscow 62% and CSKA Moscow 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Spartak Moscow 60% | CSKA Moscow 62%). Note also that CSKA Moscow surrender HT leads in 27% of cases while Spartak Moscow recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 43% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spartak Moscow 1.56 xG and CSKA Moscow 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spartak Moscow attack 0.921 / defence 0.925 | CSKA Moscow attack 1.248 / defence 1.091. League average goals — home 1.553 / away 1.114. CSKA Moscow have an above-average attack rating of 1.248, which lifts their away xG to 1.29. Data: built from Spartak Moscow's last 40 games and CSKA Moscow's last 40.
Result probabilities: Spartak Moscow 44% | Draw 25% | CSKA Moscow 31%. Fair-value odds: Spartak Moscow 2.30 | Draw 3.96 | CSKA Moscow 3.20. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Spartak Moscow at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Spartak Moscow offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.85 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Spartak Moscow's last 10 home games and CSKA Moscow's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Spartak Moscow 60% (last 10 home games) | CSKA Moscow 80% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spartak Moscow vs CSKA Moscow | Competition: Premier League, matchday 11 | Venue: Lukoil Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 8 October 2023 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spartak Moscow 44% | Draw 25% | CSKA Moscow 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Spartak Moscow 1.56 / CSKA Moscow 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Spartak Moscow attack 0.921 / def 0.925 | CSKA Moscow attack 1.248 / def 1.091 | league avg home 1.553 / away 1.114 • Poisson stance: Spartak Moscow (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Spartak Moscow xG
Expected Goals
1.29
CSKA Moscow xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Spartak Moscow vs CSKA Moscow FAQs
What time does Spartak Moscow vs CSKA Moscow kick off?
Spartak Moscow vs CSKA Moscow kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Sunday 8 October 2023 at Lukoil Arena.
What was the final score in Spartak Moscow vs CSKA Moscow?
Spartak Moscow 2 - 2 CSKA Moscow.
Where is Spartak Moscow vs CSKA Moscow being played?
The match is being played at Lukoil Arena.
What competition is Spartak Moscow vs CSKA Moscow part of?
Spartak Moscow vs CSKA Moscow is a Premier League fixture (matchday 11) (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Spartak Moscow vs CSKA Moscow?
Our statistical model gives Spartak Moscow a 44% chance of winning, CSKA Moscow a 31% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Spartak Moscow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Spartak Moscow vs CSKA Moscow?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Spartak Moscow and CSKA Moscow will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Spartak Moscow vs CSKA Moscow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Spartak Moscow's attack at 0.92x the league average against CSKA Moscow's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.56 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, CSKA Moscow's attack versus Spartak Moscow's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Spartak Moscow's last 40 games and CSKA Moscow's last 40 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Spartak Moscow Win
44%
2.30
25%
3.96
31%
3.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Spartak Moscow xG
Total xG
2.85
1.29
CSKA Moscow xG
2.30
44%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
3.20
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
28%
3.62
21%
4.76
Win to Nil
12%
8.31
7%
15.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 7.5 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 11.7 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.1 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.7 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Spartak Moscow vs CSKA Moscow Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Spartak Moscow vs CSKA Moscow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Spartak Moscow and CSKA Moscow expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Spartak Moscow and 1.29 for CSKA Moscow, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Spartak Moscow vs CSKA Moscow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 40 outings, Spartak Moscow have picked up 1.75 PPG on a 20W 10D 10L record — D-L-W-W-L across the most recent five.
CSKA Moscow's form line: 21W 11D 8L from 40 games, 1.85 PPG, last five D-D-D-D-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Spartak Moscow on 1.75 PPG, CSKA Moscow on 1.85. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Spartak Moscow have posted 2.10 PPG from their last 20 home games (12W 6D 2L).
On the road, CSKA Moscow have gone 7W 6D 7L from their last 20 away games — 1.35 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.85 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of CSKA Moscow's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Spartak Moscow come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Spartak Moscow are averaging 1.85 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; CSKA Moscow are on 1.90 scored and 1.05 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Spartak Moscow have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; CSKA Moscow in 62%.
Last 40 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spartak Moscow
Blended
CSKA Moscow
Blended
Spartak Moscow (Home) vs CSKA Moscow (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Spartak Moscow
Blended
CSKA Moscow
Blended
❓ Spartak Moscow vs CSKA Moscow Form FAQs
What form are Spartak Moscow and CSKA Moscow in coming into this match?
Spartak Moscow have gone 20W 10D 10L in their last 40 games (1.75 PPG), while CSKA Moscow have gone 21W 11D 8L in their last 40 (1.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spartak Moscow at home or CSKA Moscow away?
Spartak Moscow's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spartak Moscow at home: 2.10 PPG; CSKA Moscow away: 1.35 PPG.
Have Spartak Moscow or CSKA Moscow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Spartak Moscow have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, CSKA Moscow in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to February 2022. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 25 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Spartak Moscow's record when hosting CSKA Moscow specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Spartak Moscow
3
Draws
4
CSKA Moscow
Recent Meetings
❓ Spartak Moscow vs CSKA Moscow H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Spartak Moscow and CSKA Moscow?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Spartak Moscow have won 3, CSKA Moscow have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Spartak Moscow and CSKA Moscow last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 October 2026: CSKA Moscow 2-0 Spartak Moscow.
Who has won more matches between Spartak Moscow and CSKA Moscow?
CSKA Moscow have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Spartak Moscow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
CSKA Moscow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Spartak Moscow 55%, CSKA Moscow 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Spartak Moscow and 60% for CSKA Moscow. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Spartak Moscow keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spartak Moscow home games / CSKA Moscow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Spartak Moscow vs CSKA Moscow Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Spartak Moscow and CSKA Moscow matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Spartak Moscow's games and 65% of CSKA Moscow's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Spartak Moscow and CSKA Moscow matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Spartak Moscow's matches and 60% of CSKA Moscow's.
Do Spartak Moscow and CSKA Moscow matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 65% of Spartak Moscow's recent matches and 75% of CSKA Moscow's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Spartak Moscow and CSKA Moscow share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Spartak Moscow and CSKA Moscow finished level at 2-2 at Lukoil Arena, Regular Season - 11, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spartak Moscow 1.56 xG and CSKA Moscow 1.29 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spartak Moscow attack 0.92 / defence 0.93 against CSKA Moscow attack 1.25 / defence 1.09, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spartak Moscow 44% | Draw 25% | CSKA Moscow 31%, with Spartak Moscow to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spartak Moscow 60%, CSKA Moscow 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spartak Moscow's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
CSKA Moscow's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Spartak Moscow 1.75 PPG, CSKA Moscow 1.85 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Spartak Moscow (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.