Nizhny Novgorod 0-2 CSKA Moscow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates CSKA Moscow at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nizhny Novgorod vs CSKA Moscow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Nizhny Novgorod plays host to Nizhny Novgorod versus CSKA Moscow in Premier League, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Monday 27 September 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Nizhny Novgorod have collected 1.38 PPG across 8 Premier League outings this season: 3W 2D 3L. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 1.38 goals per game and conceding 1.38 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 88% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Nizhny Novgorod, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nizhny Novgorod at Stadion Nizhny Novgorod this season: 1W 0D 3L from 4 home games — 0.75 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.75 lags behind their overall 1.38 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadion Nizhny Novgorod this season.
CSKA Moscow's overall Premier League record this term: 4W 1D 3L from 8 games (1.62 PPG). Last five: W W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.38 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets in 8 outings (38%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for CSKA Moscow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, CSKA Moscow have posted 1W 1D 2L from 4 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.62 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.38 PPG for Nizhny Novgorod against 1.62 for CSKA Moscow. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Nizhny Novgorod register both teams scoring in 75% of relevant games, CSKA Moscow in 75%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading Data
Nizhny Novgorod goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games).
CSKA Moscow goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Nizhny Novgorod 88% and CSKA Moscow 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nizhny Novgorod 62% | CSKA Moscow 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nizhny Novgorod 1.19 xG and CSKA Moscow 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.863 / defence 1.433 | CSKA Moscow attack 0.921 / defence 1.206. League average goals — home 1.142 / away 1.179. CSKA Moscow bring a strong defensive rating of 1.206 — this is suppressing Nizhny Novgorod's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 8 Nizhny Novgorod games / 8 CSKA Moscow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nizhny Novgorod 28% | Draw 27% | CSKA Moscow 45%. Fair-value odds: Nizhny Novgorod 3.57 | Draw 3.70 | CSKA Moscow 2.22. CSKA Moscow hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates CSKA Moscow as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on CSKA Moscow if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.75 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Nizhny Novgorod 75% | CSKA Moscow 75% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nizhny Novgorod vs CSKA Moscow | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadion Nizhny Novgorod • Kick-off: Monday 27 Sep 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nizhny Novgorod 28% | Draw 27% | CSKA Moscow 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Nizhny Novgorod 1.19 / CSKA Moscow 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.863 / def 1.433 | CSKA Moscow attack 0.921 / def 1.206 | league avg home 1.142 / away 1.179 • Poisson stance: CSKA Moscow (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Nizhny Novgorod xG
Expected Goals
1.56
CSKA Moscow xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nizhny Novgorod vs CSKA Moscow kick off?
Nizhny Novgorod vs CSKA Moscow kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 27 September 2021 at Stadion Nizhny Novgorod.
What was the final score in Nizhny Novgorod vs CSKA Moscow?
Nizhny Novgorod 0 - 2 CSKA Moscow.
Where is Nizhny Novgorod vs CSKA Moscow being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Nizhny Novgorod.
What competition is Nizhny Novgorod vs CSKA Moscow part of?
Nizhny Novgorod vs CSKA Moscow is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Nizhny Novgorod vs CSKA Moscow?
Our statistical model gives Nizhny Novgorod a 28% chance of winning, CSKA Moscow a 45% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making CSKA Moscow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nizhny Novgorod vs CSKA Moscow?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Nizhny Novgorod and CSKA Moscow will score (BTTS).
Will Nizhny Novgorod vs CSKA Moscow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nizhny Novgorod and CSKA Moscow?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Nizhny Novgorod and CSKA Moscow in?
Nizhny Novgorod (all comps): 3W-2D-3L in 8 | 1.38 PPG | GF 1.38 / GA 1.38 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. CSKA Moscow (all comps): 4W-1D-3L in 8 | 1.62 PPG | GF 1.38 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Nizhny Novgorod's attack at 0.86x the league average against CSKA Moscow's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.19 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — CSKA Moscow's attack (0.92x) against Nizhny Novgorod's defence (1.43x) — and the away total comes out at 1.56.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
CSKA Moscow Win
28%
3.58
27%
3.64
45%
2.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Nizhny Novgorod xG
Total xG
2.75
1.56
CSKA Moscow xG
3.58
28%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
2.24
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
21%
4.74
30%
3.28
Win to Nil
6%
17.00
14%
7.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 10.0 | 7.8 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.9 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.1 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nizhny Novgorod vs CSKA Moscow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Nizhny Novgorod and CSKA Moscow expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Nizhny Novgorod and 1.56 for CSKA Moscow, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Nizhny Novgorod vs CSKA Moscow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Nizhny Novgorod's recent record stands at 3W 2D 3L from 8 games, a 1.38 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Nizhny Novgorod is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
CSKA Moscow, meanwhile, have gone 4W 1D 3L across 8 games — 1.62 PPG, with W-W-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for CSKA Moscow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.38 PPG for Nizhny Novgorod against 1.62 for CSKA Moscow. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Nizhny Novgorod have managed 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — 0.75 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 1.38 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
CSKA Moscow's away record stands at 1W 1D 2L across 4 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.62 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of CSKA Moscow's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Nizhny Novgorod are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; CSKA Moscow are on 1.38 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nizhny Novgorod have seen both teams score in 88% of their recent games.
Defensively: CSKA Moscow in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nizhny Novgorod
Blended
CSKA Moscow
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nizhny Novgorod and CSKA Moscow in coming into this match?
Nizhny Novgorod have gone 3W 2D 3L in their last 8 games (1.38 PPG), while CSKA Moscow have gone 4W 1D 3L in their last 8 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nizhny Novgorod at home or CSKA Moscow away?
CSKA Moscow's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nizhny Novgorod at home: 0.75 PPG; CSKA Moscow away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Nizhny Novgorod or CSKA Moscow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nizhny Novgorod have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, CSKA Moscow in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 11 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
CSKA Moscow go into this on the back of 6 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: CSKA Moscow won 2-6 on 20 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nizhny Novgorod have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against CSKA Moscow — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Nizhny Novgorod
1
Draws
8
CSKA Moscow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nizhny Novgorod and CSKA Moscow?
From 10 meetings on record, Nizhny Novgorod have won 1, CSKA Moscow have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Nizhny Novgorod and CSKA Moscow last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2026, when Nizhny Novgorod 1-2 CSKA Moscow.
Who has won more matches between Nizhny Novgorod and CSKA Moscow?
CSKA Moscow have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Nizhny Novgorod see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
CSKA Moscow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 75% for Nizhny Novgorod, 75% for CSKA Moscow — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Nizhny Novgorod and 75% for CSKA Moscow. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nizhny Novgorod home games / CSKA Moscow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nizhny Novgorod play CSKA Moscow?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Nizhny Novgorod's games and 75% of CSKA Moscow's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nizhny Novgorod vs CSKA Moscow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Nizhny Novgorod's matches and 75% of CSKA Moscow's.
Do Nizhny Novgorod and CSKA Moscow tend to score early?
Nizhny Novgorod have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, CSKA Moscow in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
CSKA Moscow cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Nizhny Novgorod.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
CSKA Moscow beat Nizhny Novgorod 0-2 at Stadion Nizhny Novgorod, Regular Season - 9, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nizhny Novgorod 1.19 xG and CSKA Moscow 1.56 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Nizhny Novgorod fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.86 / defence 1.43 against CSKA Moscow attack 0.92 / defence 1.21, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nizhny Novgorod 28% | Draw 27% | CSKA Moscow 45%, with CSKA Moscow to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nizhny Novgorod 62%, CSKA Moscow 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nizhny Novgorod's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 88% of their matches — today it did not.
CSKA Moscow's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nizhny Novgorod 1.38 PPG, CSKA Moscow 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the CSKA Moscow win broke the near-deadlock. Nizhny Novgorod (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward. CSKA Moscow (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.