Lokomotiv 1-3 Khimki – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Lokomotiv (66%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Lokomotiv face Khimki.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lokomotiv host Khimki at RZD Arena in Premier League, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 1 December 2024 at 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Lokomotiv have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: L D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lokomotiv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lokomotiv at RZD Arena this season: 9W 0D 1L from 10 home games — 2.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at RZD Arena. Their home PPG of 2.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Lokomotiv are significantly better at RZD Arena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Khimki stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Khimki, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Khimki's away record: 1W 3D 4L from 8 road trips in Premier League this season (0.75 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.12 conceded per game.
On current form, Lokomotiv have the edge — a 1.20 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Lokomotiv, 1 for Khimki and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 19 Oct 2024, ended 0–2 with Khimki winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Lokomotiv in-play and half-time data (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Khimki in-play and half-time data (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lokomotiv 56% versus Khimki 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lokomotiv 62% | Khimki 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lokomotiv 2.23 xG and Khimki 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lokomotiv attack 1.138 / defence 0.910 | Khimki attack 0.765 / defence 1.382. League average goals — home 1.415 / away 1.238. Khimki bring a strong defensive rating of 1.382 — this is suppressing Lokomotiv's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 46 Lokomotiv games / 16 Khimki games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lokomotiv 66% | Draw 23% | Khimki 11%. Fair-value odds: Lokomotiv 1.52 | Draw 4.35 | Khimki 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Lokomotiv (66%) — a 55pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lokomotiv at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.09 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral: Lokomotiv 40% | Khimki 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lokomotiv vs Khimki | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: RZD Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Dec 2024, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lokomotiv 66% | Draw 23% | Khimki 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 54% | xG Lokomotiv 2.23 / Khimki 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Lokomotiv attack 1.138 / def 0.910 | Khimki attack 0.765 / def 1.382 | league avg home 1.415 / away 1.238 • Poisson stance: Lokomotiv (66%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.23
Lokomotiv xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Khimki xG
54%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lokomotiv vs Khimki kick off?
Lokomotiv vs Khimki kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 1 December 2024 at RZD Arena.
What was the final score in Lokomotiv vs Khimki?
Lokomotiv 1 - 3 Khimki.
Where is Lokomotiv vs Khimki being played?
The match is being played at RZD Arena.
What competition is Lokomotiv vs Khimki part of?
Lokomotiv vs Khimki is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Lokomotiv vs Khimki?
Our statistical model gives Lokomotiv a 66% chance of winning, Khimki a 11% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Lokomotiv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lokomotiv vs Khimki?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Lokomotiv and Khimki will score (BTTS).
Will Lokomotiv vs Khimki have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lokomotiv and Khimki?
Record (5 meetings): Lokomotiv 3W | Draws 1 | Khimki 1W.
What form are Lokomotiv and Khimki in?
Lokomotiv (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-W-W-L. Khimki (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-D-L-D.
What do the betting odds say about Lokomotiv vs Khimki?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Lokomotiv's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against Khimki's defensive record (1.38x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.23. The same calculation in reverse, Khimki's attack versus Lokomotiv's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 11.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.9%), 2-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lokomotiv Win
66%
1.51
23%
4.40
11%
9.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.23
Lokomotiv xG
Total xG
3.09
0.86
Khimki xG
1.51
66%
Home win
4.40
23%
Draw
9.05
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
11%
9.25
Win to Nil
28%
3.58
1%
83.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.2 | 8.8 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.7 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 8.4 | 7.2 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.7 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lokomotiv vs Khimki?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Lokomotiv and Khimki expected to score?
The model projects 2.23 expected goals for Lokomotiv and 0.86 for Khimki, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Lokomotiv vs Khimki?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Lokomotiv's recent record stands at 11W 1D 4L from 16 games, a 2.12 PPG return, with L-D-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Lokomotiv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Khimki, meanwhile, have gone 2W 7D 7L across 16 games — 0.81 PPG, with W-L-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Khimki is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Lokomotiv by 1.31 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Khimki heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Lokomotiv have managed 7W 0D 1L from 8 games — 2.62 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 2.12 PPG overall — Lokomotiv are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Khimki's away record stands at 1W 3D 4L across 8 trips, a 0.75 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lokomotiv come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Lokomotiv are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Khimki are on 1.12 scored and 1.88 conceded.
Last 16 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lokomotiv
Blended
Khimki
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lokomotiv and Khimki in coming into this match?
Lokomotiv have gone 11W 1D 4L in their last 16 games (2.12 PPG), while Khimki have gone 2W 7D 7L in their last 16 (0.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lokomotiv at home or Khimki away?
Lokomotiv's home record (2.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lokomotiv at home: 2.62 PPG; Khimki away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Lokomotiv or Khimki been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lokomotiv have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Khimki in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lokomotiv and Khimki runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 December 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Khimki go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Apr 2023, when Lokomotiv won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lokomotiv's record when hosting Khimki specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Lokomotiv
1
Draws
2
Khimki
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lokomotiv and Khimki?
From 6 meetings on record, Lokomotiv have won 3, Khimki have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lokomotiv and Khimki last play each other?
They last met on 1 December 2024, when Lokomotiv 1-3 Khimki.
Who has won more matches between Lokomotiv and Khimki?
Lokomotiv have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lokomotiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Khimki are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lokomotiv 50%, Khimki 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Lokomotiv and 62% for Khimki. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lokomotiv keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Khimki in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lokomotiv home games / Khimki away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lokomotiv play Khimki?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Lokomotiv's recent matches and 50% of Khimki's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lokomotiv vs Khimki usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Lokomotiv's matches and 62% of Khimki's.
Do Lokomotiv and Khimki tend to score early?
Lokomotiv have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Khimki in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Khimki cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Lokomotiv.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Khimki beat Lokomotiv 1-3 at RZD Arena, Regular Season - 17, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lokomotiv 2.23 xG and Khimki 0.86 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Lokomotiv fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Khimki outscored their 0.86 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lokomotiv attack 1.14 / defence 0.91 against Khimki attack 0.77 / defence 1.38, drawn from 46/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lokomotiv 66% | Draw 23% | Khimki 11%, with Lokomotiv to win its most likely call at 66%. Instead the game produced a Khimki win, an outcome the model had rated at just 11% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lokomotiv 62%, Khimki 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lokomotiv's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Khimki's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Lokomotiv arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 0.81. Form was overturned, with Khimki winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Lokomotiv (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Khimki (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.