Krylia Sovetov 4-2 FC Rostov – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Rostov at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Krylia Sovetov vs FC Rostov fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC Rostov make the trip to Solidarnost Arena to face Krylia Sovetov in Premier League, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Saturday 18 September 2021 at 14:30 UTC.
Current Form
Krylia Sovetov's overall Premier League record this term: 2W 1D 4L from 7 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L D W W L. They are averaging 0.86 goals per game and conceding 1.29 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Krylia Sovetov have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Krylia Sovetov's form when playing at home: 1W 0D 2L across 3 games at Solidarnost Arena this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
FC Rostov (all games): 1W 3D 3L across 7 Premier League outings this term — 0.86 points per game. Last five: D L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.14 per game is modest, conceding 1.86 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 86% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. FC Rostov have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Rostov away from home this season: 1W 2D 0L from 3 away games — 1.67 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.67 exceeds their overall 0.86 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Krylia Sovetov against 0.86 for FC Rostov. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading
Krylia Sovetov half-time and goal-timing data (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games.
FC Rostov half-time and goal-timing data (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Krylia Sovetov 57% and FC Rostov 86% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Krylia Sovetov 43% | FC Rostov 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Krylia Sovetov 1.01 xG and FC Rostov 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Krylia Sovetov attack 0.787 / defence 1.097 | FC Rostov attack 0.874 / defence 1.136. League average goals — home 1.126 / away 1.232. Krylia Sovetov's attack strength of 0.787 is below the league average — the 1.01 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 7 Krylia Sovetov games / 7 FC Rostov games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 29% | Draw 33% | FC Rostov 38%. Fair-value odds: Krylia Sovetov 3.45 | Draw 3.03 | FC Rostov 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Rostov at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Rostov if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.19 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. This conflicts with form data: Krylia Sovetov 33% | FC Rostov 100% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Krylia Sovetov vs FC Rostov | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Solidarnost Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Sep 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 29% | Draw 33% | FC Rostov 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 46% | xG Krylia Sovetov 1.01 / FC Rostov 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Krylia Sovetov attack 0.787 / def 1.097 | FC Rostov attack 0.874 / def 1.136 | league avg home 1.126 / away 1.232 • Poisson stance: FC Rostov (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Krylia Sovetov xG
Expected Goals
1.18
FC Rostov xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Krylia Sovetov vs FC Rostov kick off?
Krylia Sovetov vs FC Rostov kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 18 September 2021 at Solidarnost Arena.
What was the final score in Krylia Sovetov vs FC Rostov?
Krylia Sovetov 4 - 2 FC Rostov.
Where is Krylia Sovetov vs FC Rostov being played?
The match is being played at Solidarnost Arena.
What competition is Krylia Sovetov vs FC Rostov part of?
Krylia Sovetov vs FC Rostov is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Krylia Sovetov vs FC Rostov?
Our statistical model gives Krylia Sovetov a 29% chance of winning, FC Rostov a 38% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making FC Rostov the favourite.
Will both teams score in Krylia Sovetov vs FC Rostov?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Krylia Sovetov and FC Rostov will score (BTTS).
Will Krylia Sovetov vs FC Rostov have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and FC Rostov?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Krylia Sovetov and FC Rostov in?
Krylia Sovetov (all comps): 2W-1D-4L in 7 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.86 / GA 1.29 | L5 L-D-W-W-L. FC Rostov (all comps): 1W-3D-3L in 7 | 0.86 PPG | GF 1.14 / GA 1.86 | L5 D-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Krylia Sovetov's attack at 0.79x the league average against FC Rostov's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.01 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC Rostov's attack (0.87x) against Krylia Sovetov's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.0%), 0-1 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Rostov Win
29%
3.46
33%
3.00
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Krylia Sovetov xG
Total xG
2.19
1.18
FC Rostov xG
3.46
29%
Home win
3.00
33%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
31%
3.26
37%
2.73
Win to Nil
9%
11.27
14%
7.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 13.3 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.3 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 6.7 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Krylia Sovetov vs FC Rostov?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Krylia Sovetov and FC Rostov expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Krylia Sovetov and 1.18 for FC Rostov, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Krylia Sovetov vs FC Rostov?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 7 outings, Krylia Sovetov have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 2W 1D 4L record — L-D-W-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Krylia Sovetov, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC Rostov's form line: 1W 3D 3L from 7 games, 0.86 PPG, last five D-L-W-D-D. It's still early in the season for FC Rostov, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Krylia Sovetov against 0.86 for FC Rostov. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Krylia Sovetov have posted 1.00 PPG from 3 outings (1W 0D 2L).
On the road, FC Rostov have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 away games — 1.67 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 0.86 PPG overall record — FC Rostov travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Rostov come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Krylia Sovetov are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; FC Rostov are on 1.14 scored and 1.86 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Rostov in 86%.
Last 7 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Krylia Sovetov
Early Season
FC Rostov
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Krylia Sovetov and FC Rostov in coming into this match?
Krylia Sovetov have gone 2W 1D 4L in their last 7 games (1.00 PPG), while FC Rostov have gone 1W 3D 3L in their last 7 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Krylia Sovetov at home or FC Rostov away?
FC Rostov's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Krylia Sovetov at home: 1.00 PPG; FC Rostov away: 1.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 23 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Krylia Sovetov have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Krylia Sovetov won 5-1 on 5 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Krylia Sovetov have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC Rostov — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Krylia Sovetov
0
Draws
6
FC Rostov
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and FC Rostov?
From 10 meetings on record, Krylia Sovetov have won 4, FC Rostov have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Krylia Sovetov and FC Rostov last play each other?
They last met on 23 November 2025, when Krylia Sovetov 2-0 FC Rostov.
Who has won more matches between Krylia Sovetov and FC Rostov?
FC Rostov have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Krylia Sovetov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
FC Rostov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 33% for Krylia Sovetov, 100% for FC Rostov — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Krylia Sovetov and 33% for FC Rostov.
On the defensive side: Krylia Sovetov keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Krylia Sovetov have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Krylia Sovetov home games / FC Rostov away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Krylia Sovetov play FC Rostov?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 33% of Krylia Sovetov's games and 100% of FC Rostov's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Krylia Sovetov vs FC Rostov usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Krylia Sovetov's recent games and 33% of FC Rostov's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Krylia Sovetov and FC Rostov tend to score early?
Krylia Sovetov have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, FC Rostov in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Krylia Sovetov cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over FC Rostov.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Krylia Sovetov beat FC Rostov 4-2 at Solidarnost Arena, Regular Season - 8, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Krylia Sovetov 1.01 xG and FC Rostov 1.18 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Krylia Sovetov beat their projection by 3.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Rostov outscored their 1.18 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Krylia Sovetov attack 0.79 / defence 1.10 against FC Rostov attack 0.87 / defence 1.14, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Krylia Sovetov 29% | Draw 33% | FC Rostov 38%, with FC Rostov to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Krylia Sovetov win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Krylia Sovetov 43%, FC Rostov 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 71%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
FC Rostov's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 86% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Krylia Sovetov 1.00 PPG, FC Rostov 0.86 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Krylia Sovetov win broke the near-deadlock. Krylia Sovetov (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Rostov (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.