Krylia Sovetov 2-0 Fakel – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Fakel at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Krylia Sovetov face Fakel.

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Full Analysis

Solidarnost Samara Arena plays host to Krylia Sovetov versus Fakel in Premier League (matchday 4). Kick-off: Sunday 11 August 2024 at 16:30 UK time.

Form

Krylia Sovetov (all games): 1W 2D 7L across their last 10 — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

At home, Krylia Sovetov have gone 2W 4D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Krylia Sovetov are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Fakel's record over their last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L (0.70 PPG). Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.

When travelling, Fakel have posted 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.

A near-identical PPG reading — 0.50 for Krylia Sovetov, 0.70 for Fakel — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Krylia Sovetov, 1 for Fakel and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 25 Apr 2024, ended Krylia Sovetov 1–0 Fakel — a Krylia Sovetov win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Data

Krylia Sovetov goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 33 games, 16 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).

Fakel goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 33 games, 16 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 52% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Krylia Sovetov 61% versus Fakel 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Krylia Sovetov 64% | Fakel 24%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Krylia Sovetov 1.20 xG and Fakel 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Krylia Sovetov attack 0.805 / defence 1.262 | Fakel attack 0.850 / defence 1.100. League average goals — home 1.353 / away 1.381. Krylia Sovetov's defence rating of 1.262 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Fakel's projected output up. Data: built from Krylia Sovetov's last 33 games and Fakel's last 33.

Result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 29% | Draw 29% | Fakel 42%. Fair-value odds: Krylia Sovetov 3.45 | Draw 3.46 | Fakel 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Fakel at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fakel if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.68 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Krylia Sovetov 50% (last 10 home games) | Fakel 50% (last 10 away games).

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