Krylia Sovetov 0-1 Dinamo Makhachkala – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Krylia Sovetov at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Krylia Sovetov vs Dinamo Makhachkala fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Dinamo Makhachkala make the trip to Solidarnost Samara Arena to face Krylia Sovetov in Premier League, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Sunday 1 September 2024 at 15:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Krylia Sovetov have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L L W L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Krylia Sovetov have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Solidarnost Samara Arena, Krylia Sovetov have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Krylia Sovetov are significantly better at Solidarnost Samara Arena than their overall form suggests.
Dinamo Makhachkala (all games): 1W 2D 3L across 6 Premier League outings this term — 0.83 points per game. Last five: D L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.33 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 17% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Dinamo Makhachkala have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Dinamo Makhachkala have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.25 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.70 for Krylia Sovetov, 0.83 for Dinamo Makhachkala — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
Krylia Sovetov — key trading statistics (6 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Dinamo Makhachkala — key trading statistics (6 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (away games); they fail to score in 67% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Krylia Sovetov 33% | Dinamo Makhachkala 17%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Krylia Sovetov 67% | Dinamo Makhachkala 0%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Krylia Sovetov 1.44 xG and Dinamo Makhachkala 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Krylia Sovetov attack 1.004 / defence 1.162 | Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.538 / defence 1.063. League average goals — home 1.349 / away 1.213. Data: 36 Krylia Sovetov games / 6 Dinamo Makhachkala games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 53% | Draw 28% | Dinamo Makhachkala 19%. Fair-value odds: Krylia Sovetov 1.89 | Draw 3.57 | Dinamo Makhachkala 5.26. Krylia Sovetov hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Krylia Sovetov as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Krylia Sovetov if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.20 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Krylia Sovetov 40% | Dinamo Makhachkala 25% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Krylia Sovetov vs Dinamo Makhachkala | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Solidarnost Samara Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Sep 2024, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 53% | Draw 28% | Dinamo Makhachkala 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 41% | xG Krylia Sovetov 1.44 / Dinamo Makhachkala 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Krylia Sovetov attack 1.004 / def 1.162 | Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.538 / def 1.063 | league avg home 1.349 / away 1.213 • Poisson stance: Krylia Sovetov (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Krylia Sovetov xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Dinamo Makhachkala xG
41%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Krylia Sovetov vs Dinamo Makhachkala kick off?
Krylia Sovetov vs Dinamo Makhachkala kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 1 September 2024 at Solidarnost Samara Arena.
What was the final score in Krylia Sovetov vs Dinamo Makhachkala?
Krylia Sovetov 0 - 1 Dinamo Makhachkala.
Where is Krylia Sovetov vs Dinamo Makhachkala being played?
The match is being played at Solidarnost Samara Arena.
What competition is Krylia Sovetov vs Dinamo Makhachkala part of?
Krylia Sovetov vs Dinamo Makhachkala is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Krylia Sovetov vs Dinamo Makhachkala?
Our statistical model gives Krylia Sovetov a 53% chance of winning, Dinamo Makhachkala a 19% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Krylia Sovetov the favourite.
Will both teams score in Krylia Sovetov vs Dinamo Makhachkala?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Krylia Sovetov and Dinamo Makhachkala will score (BTTS).
Will Krylia Sovetov vs Dinamo Makhachkala have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and Dinamo Makhachkala?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Krylia Sovetov and Dinamo Makhachkala in?
Krylia Sovetov (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. Dinamo Makhachkala (all comps): 1W-2D-3L in 6 | 0.83 PPG | GF 0.33 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Krylia Sovetov's attack at 1.00x the league average against Dinamo Makhachkala's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.44 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Dinamo Makhachkala's attack (0.54x) against Krylia Sovetov's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 0.76.
These ratings are built from 36/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.7%), 0-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Krylia Sovetov Win
53%
1.89
28%
3.63
19%
5.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Krylia Sovetov xG
Total xG
2.20
0.76
Dinamo Makhachkala xG
1.89
53%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
5.15
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.45
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
47%
2.13
24%
4.22
Win to Nil
25%
4.03
5%
21.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 8.4 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.0 | 12.1 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 8.7 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.5 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Krylia Sovetov vs Dinamo Makhachkala?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Krylia Sovetov and Dinamo Makhachkala expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Krylia Sovetov and 0.76 for Dinamo Makhachkala, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Krylia Sovetov vs Dinamo Makhachkala?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Krylia Sovetov come into this having played 6 games, going 2W 0D 4L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Krylia Sovetov, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Dinamo Makhachkala sit at 0.83 PPG from 6 outings (1W 2D 3L), a run that reads D-L-L-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Dinamo Makhachkala, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Krylia Sovetov against 0.83 for Dinamo Makhachkala. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Krylia Sovetov's home form reads 2W 0D 2L across 4 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Krylia Sovetov are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Dinamo Makhachkala have taken 0.50 points per game from 4 outings (0W 2D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Krylia Sovetov come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Krylia Sovetov are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Dinamo Makhachkala are on 0.33 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dinamo Makhachkala in 17%.
Last 6 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Krylia Sovetov
Early Season
Dinamo Makhachkala
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Krylia Sovetov and Dinamo Makhachkala in coming into this match?
Krylia Sovetov have gone 2W 0D 4L in their last 6 games (1.00 PPG), while Dinamo Makhachkala have gone 1W 2D 3L in their last 6 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Krylia Sovetov at home or Dinamo Makhachkala away?
Krylia Sovetov's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Krylia Sovetov at home: 1.50 PPG; Dinamo Makhachkala away: 0.50 PPG.
Have Krylia Sovetov or Dinamo Makhachkala been keeping clean sheets recently?
Krylia Sovetov have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Dinamo Makhachkala in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Dinamo Makhachkala won 4-0 on 15 Mar 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Krylia Sovetov have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Dinamo Makhachkala — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Krylia Sovetov
0
Draws
3
Dinamo Makhachkala
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and Dinamo Makhachkala?
From 4 meetings on record, Krylia Sovetov have won 1, Dinamo Makhachkala have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Krylia Sovetov and Dinamo Makhachkala last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Krylia Sovetov 2-0 Dinamo Makhachkala.
Who has won more matches between Krylia Sovetov and Dinamo Makhachkala?
Dinamo Makhachkala have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Krylia Sovetov see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Dinamo Makhachkala are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Krylia Sovetov 50%, Dinamo Makhachkala 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (Krylia Sovetov) and 0% (Dinamo Makhachkala).
On the defensive side: Dinamo Makhachkala in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Krylia Sovetov home games / Dinamo Makhachkala away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Krylia Sovetov play Dinamo Makhachkala?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Krylia Sovetov's recent matches and 25% of Dinamo Makhachkala's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Krylia Sovetov vs Dinamo Makhachkala usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 75% of Krylia Sovetov's recent games and 0% of Dinamo Makhachkala's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Krylia Sovetov and Dinamo Makhachkala tend to score early?
Krylia Sovetov have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Dinamo Makhachkala in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Dinamo Makhachkala defy the odds to beat Krylia Sovetov 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dinamo Makhachkala beat Krylia Sovetov 0-1 at Solidarnost Samara Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Krylia Sovetov 1.44 xG and Dinamo Makhachkala 0.76 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Krylia Sovetov fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Krylia Sovetov attack 1.00 / defence 1.16 against Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.54 / defence 1.06, drawn from 36/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Krylia Sovetov 53% | Draw 28% | Dinamo Makhachkala 19%, with Krylia Sovetov to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Dinamo Makhachkala win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Krylia Sovetov 67%, Dinamo Makhachkala 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (6 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Dinamo Makhachkala's trading profile (6 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 17% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Krylia Sovetov 1.00 PPG, Dinamo Makhachkala 0.83 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dinamo Makhachkala win broke the near-deadlock. Krylia Sovetov (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Dinamo Makhachkala (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.