Krylia Sovetov 0-1 CSKA Moscow – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates CSKA Moscow at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Krylia Sovetov vs CSKA Moscow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
CSKA Moscow make the trip to Solidarnost Arena to face Krylia Sovetov in Premier League, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Sunday 4 September 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Krylia Sovetov's overall Premier League record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D L D D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Krylia Sovetov have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Solidarnost Arena, Krylia Sovetov have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
CSKA Moscow (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: D W L W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. CSKA Moscow have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
CSKA Moscow's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. CSKA Moscow are 0.50 PPG clear of Krylia Sovetov in recent Premier League fixtures (1.70 vs 1.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Krylia Sovetov lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 4 Dec 2021, ended 0–1 with CSKA Moscow winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Krylia Sovetov — key trading statistics (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
CSKA Moscow — key trading statistics (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Krylia Sovetov 54% versus CSKA Moscow 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Krylia Sovetov 43% | CSKA Moscow 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Krylia Sovetov 1.08 xG and CSKA Moscow 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Krylia Sovetov attack 0.766 / defence 1.009 | CSKA Moscow attack 0.894 / defence 0.863. League average goals — home 1.628 / away 1.331. Krylia Sovetov's attack strength of 0.766 is below the league average — the 1.08 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 37 Krylia Sovetov games / 37 CSKA Moscow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 30% | Draw 34% | CSKA Moscow 36%. Fair-value odds: Krylia Sovetov 3.33 | Draw 2.94 | CSKA Moscow 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is CSKA Moscow at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on CSKA Moscow if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.28 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: Krylia Sovetov 60% | CSKA Moscow 50%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Krylia Sovetov vs CSKA Moscow | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Solidarnost Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Sep 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 30% | Draw 34% | CSKA Moscow 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 49% | xG Krylia Sovetov 1.08 / CSKA Moscow 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Krylia Sovetov attack 0.766 / def 1.009 | CSKA Moscow attack 0.894 / def 0.863 | league avg home 1.628 / away 1.331 • Poisson stance: CSKA Moscow (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Krylia Sovetov xG
Expected Goals
1.20
CSKA Moscow xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Krylia Sovetov vs CSKA Moscow kick off?
Krylia Sovetov vs CSKA Moscow kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 4 September 2022 at Solidarnost Arena.
What was the final score in Krylia Sovetov vs CSKA Moscow?
Krylia Sovetov 0 - 1 CSKA Moscow.
Where is Krylia Sovetov vs CSKA Moscow being played?
The match is being played at Solidarnost Arena.
What competition is Krylia Sovetov vs CSKA Moscow part of?
Krylia Sovetov vs CSKA Moscow is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Krylia Sovetov vs CSKA Moscow?
Our statistical model gives Krylia Sovetov a 30% chance of winning, CSKA Moscow a 36% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making CSKA Moscow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Krylia Sovetov vs CSKA Moscow?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Krylia Sovetov and CSKA Moscow will score (BTTS).
Will Krylia Sovetov vs CSKA Moscow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and CSKA Moscow?
Record (1 meetings): Krylia Sovetov 0W | Draws 0 | CSKA Moscow 1W.
What form are Krylia Sovetov and CSKA Moscow in?
Krylia Sovetov (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-D-W. CSKA Moscow (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Krylia Sovetov's attack at 0.77x the league average against CSKA Moscow's defence at 0.86x — combine the two and it projects 1.08 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — CSKA Moscow's attack (0.89x) against Krylia Sovetov's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.0%), 0-1 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
CSKA Moscow Win
30%
3.32
34%
2.97
36%
2.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Krylia Sovetov xG
Total xG
2.28
1.20
CSKA Moscow xG
3.32
30%
Home win
2.97
34%
Draw
2.76
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
30%
3.32
34%
2.93
Win to Nil
9%
11.04
12%
8.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 12.3 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.3 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.1 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Krylia Sovetov vs CSKA Moscow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Krylia Sovetov and CSKA Moscow expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Krylia Sovetov and 1.20 for CSKA Moscow, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Krylia Sovetov vs CSKA Moscow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Krylia Sovetov's recent record stands at 14W 8D 15L from 37 games, a 1.35 PPG return, with D-L-D-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Krylia Sovetov, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
CSKA Moscow, meanwhile, have gone 19W 7D 11L across 37 games — 1.73 PPG, with D-W-L-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for CSKA Moscow, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.35 PPG for Krylia Sovetov against 1.73 for CSKA Moscow. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Krylia Sovetov have managed 7W 5D 6L from 18 games — 1.44 PPG in front of their own supporters.
CSKA Moscow's away record stands at 6W 4D 8L across 18 trips, a 1.22 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.73 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of CSKA Moscow's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Krylia Sovetov are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; CSKA Moscow are on 1.57 scored and 0.97 conceded.
Defensively: CSKA Moscow in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Krylia Sovetov
Early Season
CSKA Moscow
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Krylia Sovetov and CSKA Moscow in coming into this match?
Krylia Sovetov have gone 14W 8D 15L in their last 37 games (1.35 PPG), while CSKA Moscow have gone 19W 7D 11L in their last 37 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Krylia Sovetov at home or CSKA Moscow away?
Krylia Sovetov's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Krylia Sovetov at home: 1.44 PPG; CSKA Moscow away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Krylia Sovetov or CSKA Moscow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Krylia Sovetov have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, CSKA Moscow in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: CSKA Moscow won 4-0 on 12 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Krylia Sovetov have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against CSKA Moscow — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Krylia Sovetov
4
Draws
6
CSKA Moscow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and CSKA Moscow?
From 10 meetings on record, Krylia Sovetov have won 0, CSKA Moscow have won 6, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Krylia Sovetov and CSKA Moscow last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when CSKA Moscow 1-1 Krylia Sovetov.
Who has won more matches between Krylia Sovetov and CSKA Moscow?
CSKA Moscow have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Krylia Sovetov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
CSKA Moscow see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Krylia Sovetov 50%, CSKA Moscow 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Krylia Sovetov) and 44% (CSKA Moscow).
On the defensive side: CSKA Moscow in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Krylia Sovetov home games / CSKA Moscow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Krylia Sovetov play CSKA Moscow?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Krylia Sovetov's recent matches and 50% of CSKA Moscow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Krylia Sovetov vs CSKA Moscow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Krylia Sovetov's recent games and 44% of CSKA Moscow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Krylia Sovetov and CSKA Moscow tend to score early?
Krylia Sovetov have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, CSKA Moscow in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as CSKA Moscow edge out Krylia Sovetov 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
CSKA Moscow beat Krylia Sovetov 0-1 at Solidarnost Arena, Regular Season - 8, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Krylia Sovetov 1.08 xG and CSKA Moscow 1.20 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Krylia Sovetov fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Krylia Sovetov attack 0.77 / defence 1.01 against CSKA Moscow attack 0.89 / defence 0.86, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Krylia Sovetov 30% | Draw 34% | CSKA Moscow 36%, with CSKA Moscow to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Krylia Sovetov 43%, CSKA Moscow 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
CSKA Moscow's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Krylia Sovetov 1.35 PPG, CSKA Moscow 1.73 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the CSKA Moscow win broke the near-deadlock. Krylia Sovetov (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward. CSKA Moscow (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.