Krylia Sovetov 1-2 Akhmat – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Akhmat at 63%, yet other data sources diverge — this Krylia Sovetov vs Akhmat fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Akhmat make the trip to Solidarnost Arena to face Krylia Sovetov in Premier League, Regular Season - 1. The match kicks off on Sunday 25 July 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Krylia Sovetov 0.69 xG and Akhmat 1.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Krylia Sovetov attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Akhmat attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.705 / away 1.808. Data: 0 Krylia Sovetov games / 0 Akhmat games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 14% | Draw 23% | Akhmat 63%. Fair-value odds: Krylia Sovetov 7.14 | Draw 4.35 | Akhmat 1.59. The model has a clear lean to Akhmat (63%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Akhmat as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Krylia Sovetov vs Akhmat | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Solidarnost Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Jul 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 14% | Draw 23% | Akhmat 63% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 41% | xG Krylia Sovetov 0.69 / Akhmat 1.77 • Poisson strength factors: Krylia Sovetov attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Akhmat attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.705 / away 1.808 • Poisson stance: Akhmat (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.69
Krylia Sovetov xG
Expected Goals
1.77
Akhmat xG
41%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Krylia Sovetov vs Akhmat kick off?
Krylia Sovetov vs Akhmat kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 25 July 2021 at Solidarnost Arena.
What was the final score in Krylia Sovetov vs Akhmat?
Krylia Sovetov 1 - 2 Akhmat.
Where is Krylia Sovetov vs Akhmat being played?
The match is being played at Solidarnost Arena.
What competition is Krylia Sovetov vs Akhmat part of?
Krylia Sovetov vs Akhmat is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Krylia Sovetov vs Akhmat?
Our statistical model gives Krylia Sovetov a 14% chance of winning, Akhmat a 63% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Akhmat the favourite.
Will both teams score in Krylia Sovetov vs Akhmat?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Krylia Sovetov and Akhmat will score (BTTS).
Will Krylia Sovetov vs Akhmat have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and Akhmat?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Krylia Sovetov and Akhmat in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Krylia Sovetov's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Akhmat's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.69. Flip it around — Akhmat's attack (0.85x) against Krylia Sovetov's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.77.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 0-2 (13.4%), 1-1 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Akhmat Win
14%
7.11
23%
4.41
63%
1.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
13.4%
Away win
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.69
Krylia Sovetov xG
Total xG
2.46
1.77
Akhmat xG
7.11
14%
Home win
4.41
23%
Draw
1.58
63%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.42
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
17%
5.85
50%
1.99
Win to Nil
2%
41.63
32%
3.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 15.2 | 13.4 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.4 | 9.2 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 2.0 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Krylia Sovetov vs Akhmat?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Krylia Sovetov and Akhmat expected to score?
The model projects 0.69 expected goals for Krylia Sovetov and 1.77 for Akhmat, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Krylia Sovetov vs Akhmat?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Krylia Sovetov
Pre-Season
Akhmat
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Krylia Sovetov have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Akhmat — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Krylia Sovetov
2
Draws
5
Akhmat
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and Akhmat?
From 10 meetings on record, Krylia Sovetov have won 3, Akhmat have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Krylia Sovetov and Akhmat last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Krylia Sovetov 2-2 Akhmat.
Who has won more matches between Krylia Sovetov and Akhmat?
Akhmat have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Krylia Sovetov home games / Akhmat away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Akhmat edge out Krylia Sovetov 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Akhmat beat Krylia Sovetov 1-2 at Solidarnost Arena, Regular Season - 1, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Krylia Sovetov 0.69 xG and Akhmat 1.77 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Krylia Sovetov attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Akhmat attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Krylia Sovetov 14% | Draw 23% | Akhmat 63%, with Akhmat to win its most likely call at 63%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.