FC Krasnodar 1-2 Zenit – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Zenit (37%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as FC Krasnodar face Zenit.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Zenit travel to Stadion FK Krasnodar to take on FC Krasnodar. The game is scheduled for Saturday 13 April 2024, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Krasnodar stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D L D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for FC Krasnodar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion FK Krasnodar, FC Krasnodar have gone 8W 2D 0L this season (10 games, 2.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion FK Krasnodar. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — FC Krasnodar are significantly better at Stadion FK Krasnodar than their overall form suggests.
Across all Premier League games this season, Zenit have recorded 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Zenit, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zenit away from home this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Zenit are 0.60 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The previous 5 encounters between these sides heavily favour Zenit, who boast 3 victories compared to 0 for FC Krasnodar.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 Nov 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Zenit have won 3 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
FC Krasnodar trading profile (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Zenit trading profile (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Krasnodar 64% versus Zenit 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Krasnodar 58% | Zenit 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Krasnodar 1.28 xG and Zenit 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Krasnodar attack 1.060 / defence 0.907 | Zenit attack 1.261 / defence 0.914. League average goals — home 1.326 / away 1.183. Zenit have an above-average attack strength of 1.261 — the away xG of 1.35 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 52 FC Krasnodar games / 52 Zenit games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Krasnodar 34% | Draw 29% | Zenit 37%. Fair-value odds: FC Krasnodar 2.94 | Draw 3.45 | Zenit 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Zenit as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zenit offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.64 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Krasnodar 50% | Zenit 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Krasnodar vs Zenit | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stadion FK Krasnodar • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Apr 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Krasnodar 34% | Draw 29% | Zenit 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 55% | xG FC Krasnodar 1.28 / Zenit 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: FC Krasnodar attack 1.060 / def 0.907 | Zenit attack 1.261 / def 0.914 | league avg home 1.326 / away 1.183 • Poisson stance: Zenit (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
FC Krasnodar xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Zenit xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Krasnodar vs Zenit kick off?
FC Krasnodar vs Zenit kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 13 April 2024 at Stadion FK Krasnodar.
What was the final score in FC Krasnodar vs Zenit?
FC Krasnodar 1 - 2 Zenit.
Where is FC Krasnodar vs Zenit being played?
The match is being played at Stadion FK Krasnodar.
What competition is FC Krasnodar vs Zenit part of?
FC Krasnodar vs Zenit is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win FC Krasnodar vs Zenit?
Our statistical model gives FC Krasnodar a 34% chance of winning, Zenit a 37% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Zenit the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Krasnodar vs Zenit?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both FC Krasnodar and Zenit will score (BTTS).
Will FC Krasnodar vs Zenit have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Krasnodar and Zenit?
Record (5 meetings): FC Krasnodar 0W | Draws 2 | Zenit 3W.
What form are FC Krasnodar and Zenit in?
FC Krasnodar (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-D-W. Zenit (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from FC Krasnodar's attack rating (1.06) and Zenit's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.28 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Zenit's attack versus FC Krasnodar's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.8%), 1-2 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zenit Win
34%
2.95
29%
3.45
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
FC Krasnodar xG
Total xG
2.64
1.35
Zenit xG
2.95
34%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
26%
3.87
28%
3.61
Win to Nil
9%
11.40
10%
9.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 9.7 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.4 | 8.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.0 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Krasnodar vs Zenit?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are FC Krasnodar and Zenit expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for FC Krasnodar and 1.35 for Zenit, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Krasnodar vs Zenit?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Krasnodar come into this having played 52 games, going 25W 16D 11L for 1.75 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-D-W. The sample for FC Krasnodar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Zenit sit at 2.19 PPG from 52 outings (34W 12D 6L), a run that reads W-D-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Zenit is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Zenit carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.44 PPG clear of FC Krasnodar — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
FC Krasnodar's home form reads 16W 6D 3L across 25 games on their own ground, a 2.16 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.75 PPG overall — FC Krasnodar are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Zenit have taken 2.00 points per game from 25 outings (14W 8D 3L).
Goals in Recent Form
FC Krasnodar are averaging 1.87 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Zenit are on 2.21 scored and 0.75 conceded. FC Krasnodar's scoring rate against Zenit's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: FC Krasnodar have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Defensively: Zenit in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Krasnodar
Blended
Zenit
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Krasnodar and Zenit in coming into this match?
FC Krasnodar have gone 25W 16D 11L in their last 52 games (1.75 PPG), while Zenit have gone 34W 12D 6L in their last 52 (2.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Krasnodar at home or Zenit away?
FC Krasnodar's home record (2.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Krasnodar at home: 2.16 PPG; Zenit away: 2.00 PPG.
Have FC Krasnodar or Zenit been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Krasnodar have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Zenit in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Apr 2025, when Zenit won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Krasnodar's record when hosting Zenit specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
FC Krasnodar
3
Draws
6
Zenit
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Krasnodar and Zenit?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Krasnodar have won 1, Zenit have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC Krasnodar and Zenit last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Zenit 1-1 FC Krasnodar.
Who has won more matches between FC Krasnodar and Zenit?
Zenit have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Krasnodar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Zenit are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Krasnodar 60%, Zenit 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (FC Krasnodar) and 44% (Zenit).
On the defensive side: FC Krasnodar keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Zenit in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Krasnodar home games / Zenit away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Krasnodar play Zenit?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of FC Krasnodar's games and 52% of Zenit's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Krasnodar vs Zenit usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of FC Krasnodar's recent games and 44% of Zenit's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Krasnodar and Zenit tend to score early?
FC Krasnodar have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Zenit in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Zenit edge out FC Krasnodar 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zenit beat FC Krasnodar 1-2 at Stadion FK Krasnodar, Regular Season - 24, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Krasnodar 1.28 xG and Zenit 1.35 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Krasnodar attack 1.06 / defence 0.91 against Zenit attack 1.26 / defence 0.91, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Krasnodar 34% | Draw 29% | Zenit 37%, with Zenit to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Krasnodar 58%, Zenit 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Krasnodar's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Zenit's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Zenit arrived the stronger side — 2.19 PPG against 1.75. Form held, and they took the win. FC Krasnodar (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.84 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.