FC Krasnodar 0-0 Nizhny Novgorod – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates FC Krasnodar at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Krasnodar vs Nizhny Novgorod encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FC Krasnodar and Nizhny Novgorod meet at Stadion FK Krasnodar in Premier League, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 12 December 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FC Krasnodar have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: L L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for FC Krasnodar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Krasnodar at Stadion FK Krasnodar this season: 4W 1D 2L from 7 home games — 1.86 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game.
Nizhny Novgorod (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Nizhny Novgorod, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Nizhny Novgorod have gone 3W 2D 3L from 8 away fixtures this term (1.38 PPG). Away from home they average 1.12 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.38 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The points-per-game gap of 1.10 in FC Krasnodar's favour (1.80 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for FC Krasnodar, 0 for Nizhny Novgorod and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 23 Oct 2021, ended 4–1 with FC Krasnodar winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
FC Krasnodar half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Nizhny Novgorod half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Krasnodar 53% and Nizhny Novgorod 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Krasnodar 53% | Nizhny Novgorod 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Krasnodar 1.56 xG and Nizhny Novgorod 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Krasnodar attack 0.938 / defence 1.091 | Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.838 / defence 1.377. League average goals — home 1.209 / away 1.156. Nizhny Novgorod bring a strong defensive rating of 1.377 — this is suppressing FC Krasnodar's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 17 FC Krasnodar games / 17 Nizhny Novgorod games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Krasnodar 48% | Draw 27% | Nizhny Novgorod 25%. Fair-value odds: FC Krasnodar 2.08 | Draw 3.70 | Nizhny Novgorod 4.00. FC Krasnodar hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Krasnodar are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Krasnodar if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.62 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: FC Krasnodar 43% | Nizhny Novgorod 75% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Krasnodar vs Nizhny Novgorod | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stadion FK Krasnodar • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Dec 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Krasnodar 48% | Draw 27% | Nizhny Novgorod 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG FC Krasnodar 1.56 / Nizhny Novgorod 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: FC Krasnodar attack 0.938 / def 1.091 | Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.838 / def 1.377 | league avg home 1.209 / away 1.156 • Poisson stance: FC Krasnodar (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
FC Krasnodar xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Nizhny Novgorod xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Krasnodar vs Nizhny Novgorod kick off?
FC Krasnodar vs Nizhny Novgorod kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 12 December 2021 at Stadion FK Krasnodar.
What was the final score in FC Krasnodar vs Nizhny Novgorod?
FC Krasnodar 0 - 0 Nizhny Novgorod.
Where is FC Krasnodar vs Nizhny Novgorod being played?
The match is being played at Stadion FK Krasnodar.
What competition is FC Krasnodar vs Nizhny Novgorod part of?
FC Krasnodar vs Nizhny Novgorod is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win FC Krasnodar vs Nizhny Novgorod?
Our statistical model gives FC Krasnodar a 48% chance of winning, Nizhny Novgorod a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making FC Krasnodar the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Krasnodar vs Nizhny Novgorod?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both FC Krasnodar and Nizhny Novgorod will score (BTTS).
Will FC Krasnodar vs Nizhny Novgorod have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Krasnodar and Nizhny Novgorod?
Record (1 meetings): FC Krasnodar 1W | Draws 0 | Nizhny Novgorod 0W.
What form are FC Krasnodar and Nizhny Novgorod in?
FC Krasnodar (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-L-W-D-W. Nizhny Novgorod (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from FC Krasnodar's attack rating (0.94) and Nizhny Novgorod's defence rating (1.38), the model arrives at 1.56 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Nizhny Novgorod's attack (0.84x) against FC Krasnodar's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Krasnodar Win
48%
2.08
27%
3.66
25%
4.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
FC Krasnodar xG
Total xG
2.62
1.06
Nizhny Novgorod xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
4.05
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
35%
2.88
21%
4.76
Win to Nil
17%
6.00
5%
19.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 7.7 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 12.0 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Krasnodar vs Nizhny Novgorod?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are FC Krasnodar and Nizhny Novgorod expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for FC Krasnodar and 1.06 for Nizhny Novgorod, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Krasnodar vs Nizhny Novgorod?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 17 outings, FC Krasnodar have picked up 1.65 PPG on a 8W 4D 5L record — L-L-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for FC Krasnodar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nizhny Novgorod's form line: 5W 3D 9L from 17 games, 1.06 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-W. The sample for Nizhny Novgorod is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, FC Krasnodar are the form team by 0.59 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Nizhny Novgorod.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, FC Krasnodar have posted 1.86 PPG from 7 outings (4W 1D 2L).
On the road, Nizhny Novgorod have gone 3W 1D 3L from 7 away games — 1.43 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Krasnodar come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
FC Krasnodar are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Nizhny Novgorod are on 1.06 scored and 1.76 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nizhny Novgorod in 71%.
Last 17 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Krasnodar
Blended
Nizhny Novgorod
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Krasnodar and Nizhny Novgorod in coming into this match?
FC Krasnodar have gone 8W 4D 5L in their last 17 games (1.65 PPG), while Nizhny Novgorod have gone 5W 3D 9L in their last 17 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Krasnodar at home or Nizhny Novgorod away?
FC Krasnodar's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Krasnodar at home: 1.86 PPG; Nizhny Novgorod away: 1.43 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
FC Krasnodar have won the last 8 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Krasnodar won 5-0 on 21 Mar 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Krasnodar have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Nizhny Novgorod — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
9
FC Krasnodar
1
Draws
0
Nizhny Novgorod
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Krasnodar and Nizhny Novgorod?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Krasnodar have won 9, Nizhny Novgorod have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Krasnodar and Nizhny Novgorod last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when FC Krasnodar 5-0 Nizhny Novgorod.
Who has won more matches between FC Krasnodar and Nizhny Novgorod?
FC Krasnodar have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC Krasnodar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Nizhny Novgorod are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Krasnodar 43%, Nizhny Novgorod 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (FC Krasnodar) and 57% (Nizhny Novgorod).
On the defensive side: FC Krasnodar have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Krasnodar home games / Nizhny Novgorod away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Krasnodar play Nizhny Novgorod?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 43% of FC Krasnodar's games and 71% of Nizhny Novgorod's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Krasnodar vs Nizhny Novgorod usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of FC Krasnodar's recent games and 57% of Nizhny Novgorod's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Krasnodar and Nizhny Novgorod tend to score early?
FC Krasnodar have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Nizhny Novgorod in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at FC Krasnodar's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Krasnodar and Nizhny Novgorod finished level at 0-0 at Stadion FK Krasnodar, Regular Season - 18, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Krasnodar 1.56 xG and Nizhny Novgorod 1.06 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. FC Krasnodar fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Nizhny Novgorod landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Krasnodar attack 0.94 / defence 1.09 against Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.84 / defence 1.38, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Krasnodar 48% | Draw 27% | Nizhny Novgorod 25%, with FC Krasnodar to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Krasnodar 53%, Nizhny Novgorod 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Krasnodar's trading profile (17 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Nizhny Novgorod's trading profile (17 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Krasnodar arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.06. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. FC Krasnodar (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line. Nizhny Novgorod (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.