Khimki 1-2 CSKA Moscow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Khimki at 36%, yet in-form CSKA Moscow provide a compelling counter-argument — this Khimki vs CSKA Moscow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 11 as Khimki welcome CSKA Moscow to Arena Khimki. Kick-off is set for Saturday 1 October 2022 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Khimki — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Khimki, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Khimki have posted 5W 3D 2L at Arena Khimki — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Khimki are significantly better at Arena Khimki than their overall form suggests.
Across all Premier League games this season, CSKA Moscow have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for CSKA Moscow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
CSKA Moscow's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. CSKA Moscow's 2.00 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Khimki's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Khimki, 0 for CSKA Moscow and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 9 Apr 2022, ended 4–2 with Khimki winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Khimki in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 30% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
CSKA Moscow in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Khimki 55% versus CSKA Moscow 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Khimki 58% | CSKA Moscow 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Khimki 1.09 xG and CSKA Moscow 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Khimki attack 0.842 / defence 1.036 | CSKA Moscow attack 0.769 / defence 0.788. League average goals — home 1.647 / away 1.253. CSKA Moscow's defence strength of 0.788 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 40 Khimki games / 40 CSKA Moscow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Khimki 36% | Draw 33% | CSKA Moscow 31%. Fair-value odds: Khimki 2.78 | Draw 3.03 | CSKA Moscow 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Khimki are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form CSKA Moscow (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Khimki offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.09 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates are neutral: Khimki 60% | CSKA Moscow 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Khimki vs CSKA Moscow | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Arena Khimki • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Oct 2022, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Khimki 36% | Draw 33% | CSKA Moscow 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 43% | xG Khimki 1.09 / CSKA Moscow 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Khimki attack 0.842 / def 1.036 | CSKA Moscow attack 0.769 / def 0.788 | league avg home 1.647 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Khimki (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Khimki xG
Expected Goals
1.00
CSKA Moscow xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Khimki vs CSKA Moscow kick off?
Khimki vs CSKA Moscow kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 1 October 2022 at Arena Khimki.
What was the final score in Khimki vs CSKA Moscow?
Khimki 1 - 2 CSKA Moscow.
Where is Khimki vs CSKA Moscow being played?
The match is being played at Arena Khimki.
What competition is Khimki vs CSKA Moscow part of?
Khimki vs CSKA Moscow is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Khimki vs CSKA Moscow?
Our statistical model gives Khimki a 36% chance of winning, CSKA Moscow a 31% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Khimki the favourite.
Will both teams score in Khimki vs CSKA Moscow?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Khimki and CSKA Moscow will score (BTTS).
Will Khimki vs CSKA Moscow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Khimki and CSKA Moscow?
Record (2 meetings): Khimki 1W | Draws 1 | CSKA Moscow 0W.
What form are Khimki and CSKA Moscow in?
Khimki (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. CSKA Moscow (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Khimki's attack at 0.84x the league average against CSKA Moscow's defence at 0.79x — combine the two and it projects 1.09 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, CSKA Moscow's attack versus Khimki's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 1-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Khimki Win
36%
2.78
33%
3.05
31%
3.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Khimki xG
Total xG
2.09
1.00
CSKA Moscow xG
2.78
36%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
3.21
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.30
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
34%
2.98
Win to Nil
13%
7.54
10%
9.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 12.3 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 7.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Khimki vs CSKA Moscow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Khimki and CSKA Moscow expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Khimki and 1.00 for CSKA Moscow, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Khimki vs CSKA Moscow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 40 outings, Khimki have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 9W 13D 18L record — L-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Khimki is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
CSKA Moscow's form line: 21W 7D 12L from 40 games, 1.75 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-L. The sample for CSKA Moscow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, CSKA Moscow are the form team by 0.75 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Khimki.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Khimki have posted 1.40 PPG from 20 outings (6W 10D 4L).
On the road, CSKA Moscow have gone 7W 4D 9L from 20 away games — 1.25 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.75 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of CSKA Moscow's season.
The Goals Picture
Khimki are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; CSKA Moscow are on 1.58 scored and 0.95 conceded.
Defensively: CSKA Moscow in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Khimki
Blended
CSKA Moscow
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Khimki and CSKA Moscow in coming into this match?
Khimki have gone 9W 13D 18L in their last 40 games (1.00 PPG), while CSKA Moscow have gone 21W 7D 12L in their last 40 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Khimki at home or CSKA Moscow away?
Khimki's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Khimki at home: 1.40 PPG; CSKA Moscow away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Khimki or CSKA Moscow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Khimki have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, CSKA Moscow in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Khimki and CSKA Moscow runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: CSKA Moscow have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Apr 2023, when CSKA Moscow won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Khimki's record when hosting CSKA Moscow specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Khimki
1
Draws
4
CSKA Moscow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Khimki and CSKA Moscow?
From 6 meetings on record, Khimki have won 1, CSKA Moscow have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Khimki and CSKA Moscow last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2025, when CSKA Moscow 1-0 Khimki.
Who has won more matches between Khimki and CSKA Moscow?
CSKA Moscow have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Khimki are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
CSKA Moscow see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Khimki 55%, CSKA Moscow 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Khimki) and 40% (CSKA Moscow).
On the defensive side: Khimki keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Khimki have failed to score in 30% of games; CSKA Moscow in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Khimki home games / CSKA Moscow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Khimki play CSKA Moscow?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Khimki's recent matches and 45% of CSKA Moscow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Khimki vs CSKA Moscow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Khimki's recent games and 40% of CSKA Moscow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Khimki and CSKA Moscow tend to score early?
Khimki have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, CSKA Moscow in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as CSKA Moscow defy the odds to beat Khimki 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
CSKA Moscow beat Khimki 1-2 at Arena Khimki, Regular Season - 11, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Khimki 1.09 xG and CSKA Moscow 1.00 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. CSKA Moscow outscored their 1.00 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khimki attack 0.84 / defence 1.04 against CSKA Moscow attack 0.77 / defence 0.79, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Khimki 36% | Draw 33% | CSKA Moscow 31%, with Khimki to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual CSKA Moscow win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Khimki 58%, CSKA Moscow 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Khimki's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
CSKA Moscow's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, CSKA Moscow arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Khimki (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual. CSKA Moscow (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.