FC Rostov 2-1 Khimki – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Rostov at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Rostov vs Khimki fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees Khimki travel to Rostov Arena to take on FC Rostov. The game is scheduled for Saturday 14 May 2022, 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, FC Rostov have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Rostov Arena, FC Rostov have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Khimki — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D W D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Khimki's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: FC Rostov 1.70 PPG, Khimki 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, FC Rostov have won 0, Khimki 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Aug 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
FC Rostov trading profile (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Khimki trading profile (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Rostov 79% and Khimki 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Rostov 64% | Khimki 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Rostov 1.66 xG and Khimki 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Rostov attack 1.218 / defence 1.245 | Khimki attack 0.748 / defence 1.240. League average goals — home 1.101 / away 1.225. Khimki bring a strong defensive rating of 1.240 — this is suppressing FC Rostov's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 28 FC Rostov games / 28 Khimki games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Rostov 49% | Draw 24% | Khimki 26%. Fair-value odds: FC Rostov 2.04 | Draw 4.17 | Khimki 3.85. FC Rostov hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Rostov are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Rostov offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.80 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC Rostov 70% | Khimki 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Rostov vs Khimki | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Rostov Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 14 May 2022, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Rostov 49% | Draw 24% | Khimki 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 55% | xG FC Rostov 1.66 / Khimki 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: FC Rostov attack 1.218 / def 1.245 | Khimki attack 0.748 / def 1.240 | league avg home 1.101 / away 1.225 • Poisson stance: FC Rostov (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
FC Rostov xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Khimki xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Rostov vs Khimki kick off?
FC Rostov vs Khimki kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 14 May 2022 at Rostov Arena.
What was the final score in FC Rostov vs Khimki?
FC Rostov 2 - 1 Khimki.
Where is FC Rostov vs Khimki being played?
The match is being played at Rostov Arena.
What competition is FC Rostov vs Khimki part of?
FC Rostov vs Khimki is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win FC Rostov vs Khimki?
Our statistical model gives FC Rostov a 49% chance of winning, Khimki a 26% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making FC Rostov the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Rostov vs Khimki?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both FC Rostov and Khimki will score (BTTS).
Will FC Rostov vs Khimki have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Rostov and Khimki?
Record (1 meetings): FC Rostov 0W | Draws 1 | Khimki 0W.
What form are FC Rostov and Khimki in?
FC Rostov (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-L-D. Khimki (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates FC Rostov's attack at 1.22x the league average against Khimki's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 1.66 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Khimki's attack versus FC Rostov's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Rostov Win
49%
2.02
24%
4.09
26%
3.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
FC Rostov xG
Total xG
2.80
1.14
Khimki xG
2.02
49%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
3.83
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
32%
3.13
19%
5.26
Win to Nil
16%
6.33
5%
20.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 6.9 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 11.5 | 6.6 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Rostov vs Khimki?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are FC Rostov and Khimki expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for FC Rostov and 1.14 for Khimki, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Rostov vs Khimki?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Rostov's recent record stands at 9W 8D 11L from 28 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-D in the last five.
Khimki, meanwhile, have gone 6W 11D 11L across 28 games — 1.04 PPG, with W-D-W-D-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Rostov on 1.25 PPG, Khimki on 1.04. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, FC Rostov have managed 5W 2D 7L from 14 games — 1.21 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Khimki's away record stands at 3W 3D 8L across 14 trips, a 0.86 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Rostov are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Khimki are on 1.11 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Rostov have seen both teams score in 79% of their recent games.
Last 28 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Rostov
Current Season
Khimki
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Rostov and Khimki in coming into this match?
FC Rostov have gone 9W 8D 11L in their last 28 games (1.25 PPG), while Khimki have gone 6W 11D 11L in their last 28 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Rostov at home or Khimki away?
FC Rostov's home record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Rostov at home: 1.21 PPG; Khimki away: 0.86 PPG.
Have FC Rostov or Khimki been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Rostov have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, Khimki in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
FC Rostov's record when hosting Khimki specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
FC Rostov
2
Draws
0
Khimki
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Rostov and Khimki?
From 6 meetings on record, FC Rostov have won 4, Khimki have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Rostov and Khimki last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2025, when Khimki 1-1 FC Rostov.
Who has won more matches between FC Rostov and Khimki?
FC Rostov have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Rostov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Khimki see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Rostov 71%, Khimki 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for FC Rostov and 57% for Khimki. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 57% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Khimki in 36%; Khimki in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Rostov home games / Khimki away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Rostov play Khimki?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of FC Rostov's games and 43% of Khimki's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Rostov vs Khimki usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of FC Rostov's matches and 57% of Khimki's.
Do FC Rostov and Khimki tend to score early?
FC Rostov have had a goal before half-time in 93% of their recent matches, Khimki in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Rostov edge out Khimki 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Rostov beat Khimki 2-1 at Rostov Arena, Regular Season - 29, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Rostov 1.66 xG and Khimki 1.14 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Rostov attack 1.22 / defence 1.25 against Khimki attack 0.75 / defence 1.24, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Rostov 49% | Draw 24% | Khimki 26%, with FC Rostov to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Rostov 64%, Khimki 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Rostov's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 79% of their matches — today it did.
Khimki's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Rostov 1.25 PPG, Khimki 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Rostov win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.