Fakel 1-1 Krylia Sovetov – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Krylia Sovetov (36%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Fakel face Krylia Sovetov.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Fakel and Krylia Sovetov meet at Stadion Fakel in Premier League, Regular Season - 30. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 24 May 2025 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Fakel have collected 0.30 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 0W 3D 7L. Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 0.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
In front of their own supporters this season, Fakel have posted 0W 6D 4L at Stadion Fakel — 0.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Krylia Sovetov (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: D W L L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Krylia Sovetov away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Krylia Sovetov arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.10 vs 0.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Fakel lead 1W to 3W over the last 5 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Aug 2024, ended 0–2 with Krylia Sovetov winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Fakel half-time and goal-timing data (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 45% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 24% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 3% of games (home games); they fail to score in 56% of games.
Krylia Sovetov half-time and goal-timing data (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fakel 34% versus Krylia Sovetov 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fakel 25% | Krylia Sovetov 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fakel 0.97 xG and Krylia Sovetov 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fakel attack 0.491 / defence 0.896 | Krylia Sovetov attack 1.129 / defence 1.339. League average goals — home 1.470 / away 1.100. Fakel's attack strength of 0.491 is below the league average — the 0.97 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Krylia Sovetov bring a strong defensive rating of 1.339 — this is suppressing Fakel's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 59 Fakel games / 59 Krylia Sovetov games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fakel 29% | Draw 35% | Krylia Sovetov 36%. Fair-value odds: Fakel 3.45 | Draw 2.86 | Krylia Sovetov 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Krylia Sovetov are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Krylia Sovetov if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.08 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Fakel 30% | Krylia Sovetov 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fakel vs Krylia Sovetov | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stadion Fakel • Kick-off: Saturday 24 May 2025, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fakel 29% | Draw 35% | Krylia Sovetov 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 44% | xG Fakel 0.97 / Krylia Sovetov 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Fakel attack 0.491 / def 0.896 | Krylia Sovetov attack 1.129 / def 1.339 | league avg home 1.470 / away 1.100 • Poisson stance: Krylia Sovetov (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Fakel xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Krylia Sovetov xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fakel vs Krylia Sovetov kick off?
Fakel vs Krylia Sovetov kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 24 May 2025 at Stadion Fakel.
What was the final score in Fakel vs Krylia Sovetov?
Fakel 1 - 1 Krylia Sovetov.
Where is Fakel vs Krylia Sovetov being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Fakel.
What competition is Fakel vs Krylia Sovetov part of?
Fakel vs Krylia Sovetov is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Fakel vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our statistical model gives Fakel a 29% chance of winning, Krylia Sovetov a 36% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Krylia Sovetov the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fakel vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Fakel and Krylia Sovetov will score (BTTS).
Will Fakel vs Krylia Sovetov have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fakel and Krylia Sovetov?
Record (5 meetings): Fakel 1W | Draws 1 | Krylia Sovetov 3W.
What form are Fakel and Krylia Sovetov in?
Fakel (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-L-D. Krylia Sovetov (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Fakel's attack rating (0.49) and Krylia Sovetov's defence rating (1.34), the model arrives at 0.97 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Krylia Sovetov's attack (1.13x) against Fakel's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 0-1 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Krylia Sovetov Win
29%
3.45
35%
2.89
36%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Fakel xG
Total xG
2.08
1.11
Krylia Sovetov xG
3.45
29%
Home win
2.89
35%
Draw
2.74
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
33%
3.05
38%
2.63
Win to Nil
10%
10.52
14%
7.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 13.9 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.4 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fakel vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Fakel and Krylia Sovetov expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Fakel and 1.11 for Krylia Sovetov, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Fakel vs Krylia Sovetov?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Fakel come into this having played 59 games, going 9W 22D 28L for 0.83 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-D.
On the other side, Krylia Sovetov sit at 1.20 PPG from 59 outings (19W 14D 26L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.83 PPG for Fakel against 1.20 for Krylia Sovetov. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Fakel's home form reads 5W 15D 9L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.03 PPG return.
Away from home, Krylia Sovetov have taken 0.93 points per game from 29 outings (7W 6D 16L).
Attack vs Defence
Fakel are averaging 0.59 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Krylia Sovetov are on 1.37 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fakel
Current Season
Krylia Sovetov
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fakel and Krylia Sovetov in coming into this match?
Fakel have gone 9W 22D 28L in their last 59 games (0.83 PPG), while Krylia Sovetov have gone 19W 14D 26L in their last 59 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fakel at home or Krylia Sovetov away?
Fakel's home record (1.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fakel at home: 1.03 PPG; Krylia Sovetov away: 0.93 PPG.
Have Fakel or Krylia Sovetov been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fakel have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Krylia Sovetov in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 May 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Krylia Sovetov won 3-0 on 2 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fakel have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Krylia Sovetov — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Fakel
2
Draws
3
Krylia Sovetov
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fakel and Krylia Sovetov?
From 6 meetings on record, Fakel have won 1, Krylia Sovetov have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fakel and Krylia Sovetov last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2025, when Fakel 1-1 Krylia Sovetov.
Who has won more matches between Fakel and Krylia Sovetov?
Krylia Sovetov have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fakel see a goal before the break in 45% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Krylia Sovetov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fakel 24%, Krylia Sovetov 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 3% for Fakel and 59% for Krylia Sovetov.
On the defensive side: Fakel keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Fakel have failed to score in 59% of games; Krylia Sovetov in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fakel home games / Krylia Sovetov away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fakel play Krylia Sovetov?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 24% of Fakel's recent matches and 62% of Krylia Sovetov's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fakel vs Krylia Sovetov usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 3% of Fakel's recent games and 59% of Krylia Sovetov's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fakel and Krylia Sovetov tend to score early?
Fakel have had a goal before half-time in 45% of their recent matches, Krylia Sovetov in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fakel and Krylia Sovetov share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fakel and Krylia Sovetov finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Fakel, Regular Season - 30, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fakel 0.97 xG and Krylia Sovetov 1.11 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fakel attack 0.49 / defence 0.90 against Krylia Sovetov attack 1.13 / defence 1.34, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fakel 29% | Draw 35% | Krylia Sovetov 36%, with Krylia Sovetov to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fakel 25%, Krylia Sovetov 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fakel's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fakel 0.83 PPG, Krylia Sovetov 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Krylia Sovetov (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.