Dynamo 2-1 CSKA Moscow – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates CSKA Moscow at 54%, yet in-form Dynamo provide a compelling counter-argument — this Dynamo vs CSKA Moscow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Dynamo host CSKA Moscow at VTB Arena in Premier League, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 8 August 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Dynamo have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 outings — a 3.00 PPG return. Last five: W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Dynamo have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
CSKA Moscow — All Games: 1W 0D 1L from 2 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. CSKA Moscow have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Dynamo carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 3.00 vs 1.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dynamo 0.91 xG and CSKA Moscow 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dynamo attack 0.964 / defence 1.150 | CSKA Moscow attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.823 / away 1.639. Data: 2 Dynamo games / 2 CSKA Moscow games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Dynamo 21% | Draw 25% | CSKA Moscow 54%. Fair-value odds: Dynamo 4.76 | Draw 4.00 | CSKA Moscow 1.85. CSKA Moscow hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is CSKA Moscow at 54% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Dynamo (3.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on CSKA Moscow offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.52 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dynamo vs CSKA Moscow | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: VTB Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Aug 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dynamo 21% | Draw 25% | CSKA Moscow 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 48% | xG Dynamo 0.91 / CSKA Moscow 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: Dynamo attack 0.964 / def 1.150 | CSKA Moscow attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.823 / away 1.639 • Poisson stance: CSKA Moscow (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Dynamo xG
Expected Goals
1.60
CSKA Moscow xG
48%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dynamo vs CSKA Moscow kick off?
Dynamo vs CSKA Moscow kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 8 August 2021 at VTB Arena.
What was the final score in Dynamo vs CSKA Moscow?
Dynamo 2 - 1 CSKA Moscow.
Where is Dynamo vs CSKA Moscow being played?
The match is being played at VTB Arena.
What competition is Dynamo vs CSKA Moscow part of?
Dynamo vs CSKA Moscow is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Dynamo vs CSKA Moscow?
Our statistical model gives Dynamo a 21% chance of winning, CSKA Moscow a 54% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making CSKA Moscow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dynamo vs CSKA Moscow?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Dynamo and CSKA Moscow will score (BTTS).
Will Dynamo vs CSKA Moscow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dynamo and CSKA Moscow?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dynamo and CSKA Moscow in?
Dynamo (all comps): 2W-0D-0L in 2 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W. CSKA Moscow (all comps): 1W-0D-1L in 2 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Dynamo's attack rating (0.96) and CSKA Moscow's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 0.91 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, CSKA Moscow's attack versus Dynamo's defence, projects 1.60 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.4%), 0-2 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
CSKA Moscow Win
21%
4.66
25%
4.00
54%
1.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
0 – 2
10.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Dynamo xG
Total xG
2.52
1.60
CSKA Moscow xG
4.66
21%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
1.87
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
20%
4.96
40%
2.49
Win to Nil
4%
23.14
21%
4.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 13.0 | 10.4 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.8 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 5.4 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dynamo vs CSKA Moscow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Dynamo and CSKA Moscow expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Dynamo and 1.60 for CSKA Moscow, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Dynamo vs CSKA Moscow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 2 outings, Dynamo have picked up 3.00 PPG on a 2W 0D 0L record — W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Dynamo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
CSKA Moscow's form line: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games, 1.50 PPG, last five W-L. It's still early in the season for CSKA Moscow, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Dynamo are the form team by 1.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against CSKA Moscow.
Goals in Recent Form
Dynamo are averaging 2.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; CSKA Moscow are on 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Dynamo's scoring rate against CSKA Moscow's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Dynamo have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; CSKA Moscow in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dynamo
Early Season
CSKA Moscow
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dynamo and CSKA Moscow in coming into this match?
Dynamo have gone 2W 0D 0L in their last 2 games (3.00 PPG), while CSKA Moscow have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 (1.50 PPG).
Have Dynamo or CSKA Moscow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dynamo have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, CSKA Moscow in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Mar 2026, when Dynamo won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dynamo's record when hosting CSKA Moscow specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Dynamo
1
Draws
4
CSKA Moscow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dynamo and CSKA Moscow?
From 10 meetings on record, Dynamo have won 5, CSKA Moscow have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dynamo and CSKA Moscow last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when CSKA Moscow 1-4 Dynamo.
Who has won more matches between Dynamo and CSKA Moscow?
Dynamo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dynamo home games / CSKA Moscow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dynamo play CSKA Moscow?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Dynamo's recent matches and 50% of CSKA Moscow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dynamo vs CSKA Moscow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Dynamo's recent games and 50% of CSKA Moscow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dynamo and CSKA Moscow tend to score early?
Dynamo have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, CSKA Moscow in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Dynamo defy the odds to beat CSKA Moscow 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dynamo beat CSKA Moscow 2-1 at VTB Arena, Regular Season - 3, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dynamo 0.91 xG and CSKA Moscow 1.60 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Dynamo beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dynamo attack 0.96 / defence 1.15 against CSKA Moscow attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Dynamo 21% | Draw 25% | CSKA Moscow 54%, with CSKA Moscow to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Dynamo win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dynamo 50%, CSKA Moscow 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Dynamo arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.50. That form edge translated into the three points. CSKA Moscow shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.