Dinamo Makhachkala 0-1 Dynamo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dynamo at 45% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dinamo Makhachkala vs Dynamo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Dynamo travel to Anzhi Arena to take on Dinamo Makhachkala in Premier League (matchday 10). The game is scheduled for Sunday 29 September 2024 at 18:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Dinamo Makhachkala — last 9 games: 2W 4D 3L, averaging 1.11 points per game. Last five: W L W D D. They are averaging 0.44 goals per game and conceding 0.78 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.78 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 9 games (44%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 22% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Dinamo Makhachkala's form when playing at home: 1W 1D 1L across their last 3 home games (1.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Dynamo stand at 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L D W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Dynamo away from home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Dynamo are 0.59 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.11), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Data
Dinamo Makhachkala trading profile (last 9 games, 3 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 22% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 56% of games.
Dynamo trading profile (last 9 games, 3 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games; Over 3.5 in 56%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dinamo Makhachkala 22% versus Dynamo 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Dinamo Makhachkala 0% | Dynamo 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dinamo Makhachkala 0.96 xG and Dynamo 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.729 / defence 0.997 | Dynamo attack 1.155 / defence 0.982. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.235. Dinamo Makhachkala's attack rating of 0.729 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.96. Data: built from Dinamo Makhachkala's last 9 games and Dynamo's last 39.
Result probabilities: Dinamo Makhachkala 23% | Draw 32% | Dynamo 45%. Fair-value odds: Dinamo Makhachkala 4.35 | Draw 3.16 | Dynamo 2.20. Dynamo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dynamo are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dynamo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.38 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Dinamo Makhachkala's last 3 home games and Dynamo's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Dinamo Makhachkala 33% (last 3 home games) | Dynamo 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dinamo Makhachkala vs Dynamo | Competition: Premier League, matchday 10 | Venue: Anzhi Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 29 September 2024 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dinamo Makhachkala 23% | Draw 32% | Dynamo 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Dinamo Makhachkala 0.96 / Dynamo 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.729 / def 0.997 | Dynamo attack 1.155 / def 0.982 | league avg home 1.339 / away 1.235 • Poisson stance: Dynamo (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Dinamo Makhachkala xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Dynamo xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Dinamo Makhachkala vs Dynamo FAQs
What time does Dinamo Makhachkala vs Dynamo kick off?
Dinamo Makhachkala vs Dynamo kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Sunday 29 September 2024 at Anzhi Arena.
What was the final score in Dinamo Makhachkala vs Dynamo?
Dinamo Makhachkala 0 - 1 Dynamo.
Where is Dinamo Makhachkala vs Dynamo being played?
The match is being played at Anzhi Arena.
What competition is Dinamo Makhachkala vs Dynamo part of?
Dinamo Makhachkala vs Dynamo is a Premier League fixture (matchday 10) (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Dinamo Makhachkala vs Dynamo?
Our statistical model gives Dinamo Makhachkala a 23% chance of winning, Dynamo a 45% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Dynamo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dinamo Makhachkala vs Dynamo?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Dinamo Makhachkala and Dynamo will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Dinamo Makhachkala vs Dynamo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Dinamo Makhachkala's attack rating (0.73) and Dynamo's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 0.96 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Dynamo's attack versus Dinamo Makhachkala's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Dinamo Makhachkala's last 9 games and Dynamo's last 39 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.5%), 0-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dynamo Win
23%
4.35
32%
3.16
45%
2.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Dinamo Makhachkala xG
Total xG
2.38
1.42
Dynamo xG
4.35
23%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
2.20
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
24%
4.15
38%
2.61
Win to Nil
6%
18.03
17%
5.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 13.2 | 9.4 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.6 | 9.0 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.0 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Dinamo Makhachkala vs Dynamo Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Dinamo Makhachkala vs Dynamo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Dinamo Makhachkala and Dynamo expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Dinamo Makhachkala and 1.42 for Dynamo, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Dinamo Makhachkala vs Dynamo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 9 outings, Dinamo Makhachkala have picked up 1.11 PPG on a 2W 4D 3L record — W-L-W-D-D across the most recent five.
Dynamo's form line: 5W 2D 2L from 9 games, 1.89 PPG, last five W-L-D-W-D.
Put side by side, Dynamo are the form team by 0.78 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Dinamo Makhachkala.
Venue Form
On home soil, Dinamo Makhachkala have posted 1.33 PPG from their last 3 home games (1W 1D 1L).
On the road, Dynamo have gone 0W 2D 1L from their last 3 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.89 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Dynamo's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dinamo Makhachkala come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Dinamo Makhachkala are averaging 0.44 goals scored and 0.78 conceded per game recently; Dynamo are on 1.89 scored and 1.11 conceded. Dynamo's attacking output running into Dinamo Makhachkala's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Dinamo Makhachkala have seen both teams score in 22% of their recent games.
Defensively: Dinamo Makhachkala have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 9 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dinamo Makhachkala
Blended
Dynamo
Blended
Dinamo Makhachkala (Home) vs Dynamo (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Dinamo Makhachkala
Blended
Dynamo
Blended
❓ Dinamo Makhachkala vs Dynamo Form FAQs
What form are Dinamo Makhachkala and Dynamo in coming into this match?
Dinamo Makhachkala have gone 2W 4D 3L in their last 9 games (1.11 PPG), while Dynamo have gone 5W 2D 2L in their last 9 (1.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dinamo Makhachkala at home or Dynamo away?
Dinamo Makhachkala's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dinamo Makhachkala at home: 1.33 PPG; Dynamo away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Dinamo Makhachkala or Dynamo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dinamo Makhachkala have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Dynamo in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 5 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from September 2024. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 9 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Dynamo have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 8 Mar 2025, when Dynamo won Dynamo 4-0 Dinamo Makhachkala.
Dinamo Makhachkala's record when hosting Dynamo specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Dinamo Makhachkala
0
Draws
4
Dynamo
Recent Meetings
❓ Dinamo Makhachkala vs Dynamo H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Dinamo Makhachkala and Dynamo?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Dinamo Makhachkala have won 1, Dynamo have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Dinamo Makhachkala and Dynamo last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 August 2026: Dynamo 3-1 Dinamo Makhachkala.
Who has won more matches between Dinamo Makhachkala and Dynamo?
Dynamo have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Dinamo Makhachkala see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Dynamo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dinamo Makhachkala 33%, Dynamo 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Dinamo Makhachkala and 67% for Dynamo.
On the defensive side: Dinamo Makhachkala keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Dinamo Makhachkala have failed to score in 33% of games; Dynamo in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dinamo Makhachkala home games / Dynamo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Dinamo Makhachkala vs Dynamo Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Dinamo Makhachkala and Dynamo matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Dinamo Makhachkala's recent matches and 67% of Dynamo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Dinamo Makhachkala and Dynamo matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Dinamo Makhachkala's recent games and 67% of Dynamo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dinamo Makhachkala and Dynamo matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 33% of Dinamo Makhachkala's recent matches and 67% of Dynamo's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Dynamo edge out Dinamo Makhachkala 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dynamo beat Dinamo Makhachkala 0-1 at Anzhi Arena, Regular Season - 10, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dinamo Makhachkala 0.96 xG and Dynamo 1.42 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Dinamo Makhachkala fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.73 / defence 1.00 against Dynamo attack 1.16 / defence 0.98, drawn from 9/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dinamo Makhachkala 23% | Draw 32% | Dynamo 45%, with Dynamo to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 28% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dinamo Makhachkala 0%, Dynamo 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dinamo Makhachkala's trading profile (9 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 22% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 56% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Dynamo's trading profile (9 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Dynamo arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.11. That form edge translated into the three points. Dynamo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.