CSKA Moscow 2-2 Ural – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates CSKA Moscow at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this CSKA Moscow vs Ural encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Ural travel to VEB Arena to take on CSKA Moscow. The game is scheduled for Sunday 3 April 2022, 14:30 UTC.
Form Guide
CSKA Moscow — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for CSKA Moscow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
CSKA Moscow's home record at VEB Arena: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Premier League appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at VEB Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Premier League games this season, Ural have recorded 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Ural, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Ural have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, CSKA Moscow have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. CSKA Moscow's 30% rate and Ural's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for CSKA Moscow, 0 for Ural and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 17 Oct 2021, ended 1–0 with CSKA Moscow winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
CSKA Moscow in-play tendencies (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Ural in-play tendencies (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they fail to score in 59% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (CSKA Moscow 36% | Ural 27%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (CSKA Moscow 36% | Ural 18%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects CSKA Moscow 1.57 xG and Ural 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: CSKA Moscow attack 1.298 / defence 0.902 | Ural attack 0.723 / defence 1.178. League average goals — home 1.026 / away 1.255. CSKA Moscow carry an above-average attack strength of 1.298 — their λ of 1.57 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 22 CSKA Moscow games / 22 Ural games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: CSKA Moscow 53% | Draw 29% | Ural 18%. Fair-value odds: CSKA Moscow 1.89 | Draw 3.45 | Ural 5.56. CSKA Moscow hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, CSKA Moscow are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on CSKA Moscow offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.39 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: CSKA Moscow 30% | Ural 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: CSKA Moscow vs Ural | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: VEB Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Apr 2022, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: CSKA Moscow 53% | Draw 29% | Ural 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 46% | xG CSKA Moscow 1.57 / Ural 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: CSKA Moscow attack 1.298 / def 0.902 | Ural attack 0.723 / def 1.178 | league avg home 1.026 / away 1.255 • Poisson stance: CSKA Moscow (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
CSKA Moscow xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Ural xG
46%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does CSKA Moscow vs Ural kick off?
CSKA Moscow vs Ural kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 3 April 2022 at VEB Arena.
What was the final score in CSKA Moscow vs Ural?
CSKA Moscow 2 - 2 Ural.
Where is CSKA Moscow vs Ural being played?
The match is being played at VEB Arena.
What competition is CSKA Moscow vs Ural part of?
CSKA Moscow vs Ural is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win CSKA Moscow vs Ural?
Our statistical model gives CSKA Moscow a 53% chance of winning, Ural a 18% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making CSKA Moscow the favourite.
Will both teams score in CSKA Moscow vs Ural?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both CSKA Moscow and Ural will score (BTTS).
Will CSKA Moscow vs Ural have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between CSKA Moscow and Ural?
Record (1 meetings): CSKA Moscow 1W | Draws 0 | Ural 0W.
What form are CSKA Moscow and Ural in?
CSKA Moscow (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Ural (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates CSKA Moscow's attack at 1.30x the league average against Ural's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 1.57 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ural's attack versus CSKA Moscow's defence, projects 0.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.9%), 2-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
CSKA Moscow Win
53%
1.87
29%
3.49
18%
5.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
CSKA Moscow xG
Total xG
2.39
0.82
Ural xG
1.87
53%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
5.60
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
44%
2.27
21%
4.80
Win to Nil
24%
4.24
4%
26.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.4 | 11.8 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.3 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.9 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for CSKA Moscow vs Ural?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are CSKA Moscow and Ural expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for CSKA Moscow and 0.82 for Ural, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for CSKA Moscow vs Ural?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
CSKA Moscow come into this having played 22 games, going 13W 3D 6L for 1.91 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W. The sample for CSKA Moscow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Ural sit at 0.91 PPG from 22 outings (4W 8D 10L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Ural is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
CSKA Moscow carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Ural — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
CSKA Moscow's home form reads 7W 2D 2L across 11 games on their own ground, a 2.09 PPG return.
Away from home, Ural have taken 1.00 points per game from 11 outings (3W 2D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, CSKA Moscow come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
CSKA Moscow are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 0.82 conceded per game recently; Ural are on 0.59 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Ural in 27%.
Defensively: CSKA Moscow have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
CSKA Moscow
Blended
Ural
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are CSKA Moscow and Ural in coming into this match?
CSKA Moscow have gone 13W 3D 6L in their last 22 games (1.91 PPG), while Ural have gone 4W 8D 10L in their last 22 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — CSKA Moscow at home or Ural away?
CSKA Moscow's home record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — CSKA Moscow at home: 2.09 PPG; Ural away: 1.00 PPG.
Have CSKA Moscow or Ural been keeping clean sheets recently?
CSKA Moscow have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Ural in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between CSKA Moscow and Ural runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
CSKA Moscow's record when hosting Ural specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
CSKA Moscow
1
Draws
1
Ural
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between CSKA Moscow and Ural?
From 6 meetings on record, CSKA Moscow have won 4, Ural have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did CSKA Moscow and Ural last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2024, when CSKA Moscow 2-0 Ural.
Who has won more matches between CSKA Moscow and Ural?
CSKA Moscow have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
CSKA Moscow see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches.
Ural see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — CSKA Moscow 27% BTTS, Ural 27%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 27% for CSKA Moscow and 27% for Ural.
On the defensive side: CSKA Moscow keep a clean sheet in 64% of their matches; CSKA Moscow have failed to score in 27% of games; Ural in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = CSKA Moscow home games / Ural away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when CSKA Moscow play Ural?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 27% of CSKA Moscow's recent matches and 27% of Ural's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is CSKA Moscow vs Ural usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of CSKA Moscow's recent games and 27% of Ural's, pointing to a tighter contest.
CSKA Moscow and Ural share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at VEB Arena, Regular Season - 23, as CSKA Moscow and Ural drew 2-2 in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting CSKA Moscow 1.57 xG and Ural 0.82 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Ural outscored their 0.82 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of CSKA Moscow attack 1.30 / defence 0.90 against Ural attack 0.72 / defence 1.18, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it CSKA Moscow 53% | Draw 29% | Ural 18%, with CSKA Moscow to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 27% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (CSKA Moscow 36%, Ural 18%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 32%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
CSKA Moscow's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Ural's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 27% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, CSKA Moscow arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 0.91. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. CSKA Moscow (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.55 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ural (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.73 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.