CSKA Moscow 2-2 Krylia Sovetov – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates CSKA Moscow at 60% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this CSKA Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
VEB Arena plays host to CSKA Moscow versus Krylia Sovetov in Premier League, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Saturday 16 September 2023 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
CSKA Moscow (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. CSKA Moscow have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at VEB Arena, CSKA Moscow have gone 8W 2D 0L this season (10 games, 2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — CSKA Moscow are significantly better at VEB Arena than their overall form suggests.
Krylia Sovetov have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W D L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Krylia Sovetov have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Krylia Sovetov's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Krylia Sovetov are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — CSKA Moscow have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Krylia Sovetov in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Across 3 previous meetings, CSKA Moscow are the stronger side on paper — 3 victories to 0, with 0 draws in between.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Mar 2023, ended 4–0 with CSKA Moscow winning.
The historical record gives CSKA Moscow a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 3 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Data
CSKA Moscow goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Krylia Sovetov goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — CSKA Moscow 62% and Krylia Sovetov 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (CSKA Moscow 62% | Krylia Sovetov 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects CSKA Moscow 2.07 xG and Krylia Sovetov 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: CSKA Moscow attack 1.303 / defence 0.856 | Krylia Sovetov attack 0.968 / defence 0.958. League average goals — home 1.654 / away 1.176. CSKA Moscow carry an above-average attack strength of 1.303 — their λ of 2.07 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 37 CSKA Moscow games / 37 Krylia Sovetov games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: CSKA Moscow 60% | Draw 25% | Krylia Sovetov 15%. Fair-value odds: CSKA Moscow 1.67 | Draw 4.00 | Krylia Sovetov 6.67. The model has a clear lean to CSKA Moscow (60%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
CSKA Moscow dominate the H2H record, yet Krylia Sovetov are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, CSKA Moscow are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Krylia Sovetov (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.04 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: CSKA Moscow 60% | Krylia Sovetov 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: CSKA Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: VEB Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Sep 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: CSKA Moscow 60% | Draw 25% | Krylia Sovetov 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 56% | xG CSKA Moscow 2.07 / Krylia Sovetov 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: CSKA Moscow attack 1.303 / def 0.856 | Krylia Sovetov attack 0.968 / def 0.958 | league avg home 1.654 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: CSKA Moscow (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.07
CSKA Moscow xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Krylia Sovetov xG
56%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does CSKA Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov kick off?
CSKA Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 16 September 2023 at VEB Arena.
What was the final score in CSKA Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov?
CSKA Moscow 2 - 2 Krylia Sovetov.
Where is CSKA Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov being played?
The match is being played at VEB Arena.
What competition is CSKA Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov part of?
CSKA Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win CSKA Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our statistical model gives CSKA Moscow a 60% chance of winning, Krylia Sovetov a 15% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making CSKA Moscow the favourite.
Will both teams score in CSKA Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both CSKA Moscow and Krylia Sovetov will score (BTTS).
Will CSKA Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between CSKA Moscow and Krylia Sovetov?
Record (3 meetings): CSKA Moscow 3W | Draws 0 | Krylia Sovetov 0W.
What form are CSKA Moscow and Krylia Sovetov in?
CSKA Moscow (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-D-D. Krylia Sovetov (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
CSKA Moscow's attacking strength (1.30x league average) is weighed against Krylia Sovetov's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.07. Flip it around — Krylia Sovetov's attack (0.97x) against CSKA Moscow's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.9%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.2%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
CSKA Moscow Win
60%
1.65
25%
4.05
15%
6.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.07
CSKA Moscow xG
Total xG
3.04
0.97
Krylia Sovetov xG
1.65
60%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
6.74
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
13%
7.89
Win to Nil
23%
4.38
2%
53.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.9 | 9.6 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.0 | 6.8 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for CSKA Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are CSKA Moscow and Krylia Sovetov expected to score?
The model projects 2.07 expected goals for CSKA Moscow and 0.97 for Krylia Sovetov, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for CSKA Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
CSKA Moscow's recent record stands at 20W 9D 8L from 37 games, a 1.86 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for CSKA Moscow, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Krylia Sovetov, meanwhile, have gone 12W 10D 15L across 37 games — 1.24 PPG, with W-D-L-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Krylia Sovetov, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours CSKA Moscow by 0.62 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Krylia Sovetov heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, CSKA Moscow have managed 13W 4D 1L from 18 games — 2.39 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.86 PPG overall — CSKA Moscow are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Krylia Sovetov's away record stands at 5W 3D 10L across 18 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, CSKA Moscow come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
CSKA Moscow are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Krylia Sovetov are on 1.32 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: CSKA Moscow have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Krylia Sovetov in 62%.
Last 37 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
CSKA Moscow
Early Season
Krylia Sovetov
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are CSKA Moscow and Krylia Sovetov in coming into this match?
CSKA Moscow have gone 20W 9D 8L in their last 37 games (1.86 PPG), while Krylia Sovetov have gone 12W 10D 15L in their last 37 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — CSKA Moscow at home or Krylia Sovetov away?
CSKA Moscow's home record (2.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — CSKA Moscow at home: 2.39 PPG; Krylia Sovetov away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: CSKA Moscow won 4-0 on 12 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, CSKA Moscow have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Krylia Sovetov — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
CSKA Moscow
4
Draws
0
Krylia Sovetov
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between CSKA Moscow and Krylia Sovetov?
From 10 meetings on record, CSKA Moscow have won 6, Krylia Sovetov have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did CSKA Moscow and Krylia Sovetov last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when CSKA Moscow 1-1 Krylia Sovetov.
Who has won more matches between CSKA Moscow and Krylia Sovetov?
CSKA Moscow have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
CSKA Moscow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 72% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Krylia Sovetov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 61% for CSKA Moscow, 72% for Krylia Sovetov — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for CSKA Moscow and 72% for Krylia Sovetov. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: CSKA Moscow keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = CSKA Moscow home games / Krylia Sovetov away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when CSKA Moscow play Krylia Sovetov?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of CSKA Moscow's games and 72% of Krylia Sovetov's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is CSKA Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of CSKA Moscow's matches and 72% of Krylia Sovetov's.
Do CSKA Moscow and Krylia Sovetov tend to score early?
CSKA Moscow have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Krylia Sovetov in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
CSKA Moscow and Krylia Sovetov share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at VEB Arena, Regular Season - 8, as CSKA Moscow and Krylia Sovetov drew 2-2 in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting CSKA Moscow 2.07 xG and Krylia Sovetov 0.97 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Krylia Sovetov outscored their 0.97 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of CSKA Moscow attack 1.30 / defence 0.86 against Krylia Sovetov attack 0.97 / defence 0.96, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it CSKA Moscow 60% | Draw 25% | Krylia Sovetov 15%, with CSKA Moscow to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (CSKA Moscow 62%, Krylia Sovetov 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
CSKA Moscow's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, CSKA Moscow arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.24. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. CSKA Moscow (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.