Baltika 0-0 FC Sochi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Baltika take on FC Sochi.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Baltika and FC Sochi meet at Rostec Arena in Premier League (matchday 19). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 3 March 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Form
Baltika (all games): 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Baltika's home record over their last 9 home games: 3W 2D 4L (1.22 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game.
FC Sochi have collected 0.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone.
On the road, FC Sochi have gone 1W 0D 9L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Baltika against 0.50 for FC Sochi. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, FC Sochi edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 23 Jul 2023, ended Baltika 0–2 FC Sochi — a FC Sochi win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Baltika half-time and goal-timing data (last 18 games, 9 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 56% of games.
FC Sochi half-time and goal-timing data (last 18 games, 9 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 56% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams scored in only 33% of Baltika's games and 33% of FC Sochi's. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Baltika 33% | FC Sochi 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baltika 1.16 xG and FC Sochi 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baltika attack 0.731 / defence 1.227 | FC Sochi attack 0.929 / defence 1.148. League average goals — home 1.380 / away 0.943. Baltika's attack rating of 0.731 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.16. Baltika's defence rating of 1.227 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing FC Sochi's projected output up. Data: built from Baltika's last 18 games and FC Sochi's last 48.
Result probabilities: Baltika 35% | Draw 35% | FC Sochi 30%. Fair-value odds: Baltika 2.88 | Draw 2.87 | FC Sochi 3.28. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 30% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.23 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 61% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Baltika 33% (last 9 home games) | FC Sochi 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baltika vs FC Sochi | Competition: Premier League, matchday 19 | Venue: Rostec Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 3 March 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baltika 35% | Draw 35% | FC Sochi 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% (Under 61%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Baltika 1.16 / FC Sochi 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Baltika attack 0.731 / def 1.227 | FC Sochi attack 0.929 / def 1.148 | league avg home 1.380 / away 0.943 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Baltika xG
Expected Goals
1.07
FC Sochi xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Baltika vs FC Sochi FAQs
What time does Baltika vs FC Sochi kick off?
Baltika vs FC Sochi kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Sunday 3 March 2024 at Rostec Arena.
What was the final score in Baltika vs FC Sochi?
Baltika 0 - 0 FC Sochi.
Where is Baltika vs FC Sochi being played?
The match is being played at Rostec Arena.
What competition is Baltika vs FC Sochi part of?
Baltika vs FC Sochi is a Premier League fixture (matchday 19) (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Baltika vs FC Sochi?
Our statistical model gives Baltika a 35% chance of winning, FC Sochi a 30% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making the draw the single most likely result.
Will both teams score in Baltika vs FC Sochi?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Baltika and FC Sochi will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Baltika vs FC Sochi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (61%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Baltika's attack at 0.73x the league average against FC Sochi's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.16 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC Sochi's attack (0.93x) against Baltika's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from Baltika's last 18 games and FC Sochi's last 48 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.4%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
35%
2.88
35%
2.87
30%
3.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Baltika xG
Total xG
2.23
1.07
FC Sochi xG
2.88
35%
Home win
2.87
35%
Draw
3.28
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
34%
2.93
31%
3.19
Win to Nil
12%
8.45
10%
10.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 11.5 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.3 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 7.7 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Baltika vs FC Sochi Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Baltika vs FC Sochi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Baltika and FC Sochi expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Baltika and 1.07 for FC Sochi, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Baltika vs FC Sochi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Baltika come into this having played 18 games, going 3W 4D 11L for 0.72 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-D-L.
On the other side, FC Sochi sit at 0.61 PPG from 18 outings (3W 2D 13L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.72 PPG for Baltika against 0.61 for FC Sochi. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Baltika's home form reads 3W 2D 4L across their last 9 home games, a 1.22 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.72 PPG overall — Baltika are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, FC Sochi have taken 0.33 points per game from their last 9 away games (1W 0D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Baltika come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Baltika are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; FC Sochi are on 0.94 scored and 1.72 conceded.
Last 18 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baltika
Blended
FC Sochi
Blended
Baltika (Home) vs FC Sochi (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Baltika
Blended
FC Sochi
Blended
❓ Baltika vs FC Sochi Form FAQs
What form are Baltika and FC Sochi in coming into this match?
Baltika have gone 3W 4D 11L in their last 18 games (0.72 PPG), while FC Sochi have gone 3W 2D 13L in their last 18 (0.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baltika at home or FC Sochi away?
Baltika's home record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baltika at home: 1.22 PPG; FC Sochi away: 0.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to July 2023 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 21 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Baltika have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Baltika won Baltika 4-0 FC Sochi on 21 Mar 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Baltika have gone 1W 1D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against FC Sochi — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Baltika
1
Draws
1
FC Sochi
Recent Meetings
❓ Baltika vs FC Sochi H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Baltika and FC Sochi?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Baltika have won 2, FC Sochi have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Baltika and FC Sochi last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 March 2026: Baltika 4-0 FC Sochi.
Who has won more matches between Baltika and FC Sochi?
Baltika have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Baltika are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
FC Sochi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 33% (Baltika) and 33% (FC Sochi) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Baltika) and 56% (FC Sochi).
On the defensive side: Baltika have failed to score in 44% of games; FC Sochi in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baltika home games / FC Sochi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Baltika vs FC Sochi Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Baltika and FC Sochi matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Baltika's recent matches and 33% of FC Sochi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Baltika and FC Sochi matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Baltika's recent games and 56% of FC Sochi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Baltika and FC Sochi matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of Baltika's recent matches and 67% of FC Sochi's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Baltika's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Rostec Arena, Regular Season - 19, as Baltika and FC Sochi drew 0-0 in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baltika 1.16 xG and FC Sochi 1.07 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Baltika fell 1.2 short of their projected output. FC Sochi landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baltika attack 0.73 / defence 1.23 against FC Sochi attack 0.93 / defence 1.15, drawn from 18/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Baltika 35% | Draw 35% | FC Sochi 30%, with Baltika to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baltika 33%, FC Sochi 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baltika's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 56% of games, a blank that repeated today.
FC Sochi's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 56% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Baltika 0.72 PPG, FC Sochi 0.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Baltika (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line. FC Sochi (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.