Baltika 2-0 Nizhny Novgorod – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 39% as Baltika take on Nizhny Novgorod.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Baltika welcome Nizhny Novgorod to Rostec Arena in Premier League (matchday 22). Kick-off is Saturday 30 March 2024 at 14:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Baltika have gone 1W 4D 5L — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 0.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Baltika's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Baltika are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Nizhny Novgorod stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
On the road, Nizhny Novgorod have gone 1W 2D 7L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Nizhny Novgorod — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Baltika's 30% BTTS rate and Nizhny Novgorod's 20% (from Baltika's last 10 home games and Nizhny Novgorod's last 10 away games) are both low — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Baltika, 0 for Nizhny Novgorod and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 1 H2H match in our data, averaging 0.0 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 12 Nov 2023, ended Baltika 0–0 Nizhny Novgorod — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Baltika in-play tendencies (last 20 games, 10 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 60% of games.
Nizhny Novgorod in-play tendencies (last 20 games, 10 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 10% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 45% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams scored in only 30% of Baltika's games and 25% of Nizhny Novgorod's. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Baltika 30% | Nizhny Novgorod 15%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baltika 0.78 xG and Nizhny Novgorod 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baltika attack 0.664 / defence 1.056 | Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.827 / defence 0.921. League average goals — home 1.284 / away 1.069. Baltika's attack rating of 0.664 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.78. Data: built from Baltika's last 20 games and Nizhny Novgorod's last 50.
Result probabilities: Baltika 26% | Draw 39% | Nizhny Novgorod 35%. Fair-value odds: Baltika 3.79 | Draw 2.57 | Nizhny Novgorod 2.88. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS Yes probability 36% | Total xG 1.72. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.72 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 64% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 26% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.72 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 75% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Baltika's last 10 home games and Nizhny Novgorod's last 10 away games) averaging 1.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Baltika 30% (last 10 home games) | Nizhny Novgorod 20% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baltika vs Nizhny Novgorod | Competition: Premier League, matchday 22 | Venue: Rostec Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 30 March 2024 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baltika 26% | Draw 39% | Nizhny Novgorod 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% (Under 75%) | BTTS Yes 36% (No 64%) | xG Baltika 0.78 / Nizhny Novgorod 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Baltika attack 0.664 / def 1.056 | Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.827 / def 0.921 | league avg home 1.284 / away 1.069 • Poisson stance: Draw (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.78
Baltika xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Nizhny Novgorod xG
36%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Baltika vs Nizhny Novgorod FAQs
What time does Baltika vs Nizhny Novgorod kick off?
Baltika vs Nizhny Novgorod kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Saturday 30 March 2024 at Rostec Arena.
What was the final score in Baltika vs Nizhny Novgorod?
Baltika 2 - 0 Nizhny Novgorod.
Where is Baltika vs Nizhny Novgorod being played?
The match is being played at Rostec Arena.
What competition is Baltika vs Nizhny Novgorod part of?
Baltika vs Nizhny Novgorod is a Premier League fixture (matchday 22) (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Baltika vs Nizhny Novgorod?
Our statistical model gives Baltika a 26% chance of winning, Nizhny Novgorod a 35% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw — making the draw the single most likely result.
Will both teams score in Baltika vs Nizhny Novgorod?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Baltika and Nizhny Novgorod will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (64%).
Will Baltika vs Nizhny Novgorod have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (75%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Baltika's attack rating (0.66) and Nizhny Novgorod's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 0.78 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Nizhny Novgorod's attack versus Baltika's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Baltika's last 20 games and Nizhny Novgorod's last 50 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 19.7%. Close behind: 0-1 (15.0%), 1-1 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
26%
3.79
39%
2.57
35%
2.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
18.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
16.8%
Away win
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.78
Baltika xG
Total xG
1.72
0.93
Nizhny Novgorod xG
3.79
26%
Home win
2.57
39%
Draw
2.88
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
51%
Over 1.5
1.96
49%
Under 1.5
2.04
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.81
64%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
46%
2.19
Win to Nil
10%
9.64
16%
6.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.0 | 16.8 | 7.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 13.1 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Baltika vs Nizhny Novgorod Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Baltika vs Nizhny Novgorod?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.7%.
How many goals are Baltika and Nizhny Novgorod expected to score?
The model projects 0.78 expected goals for Baltika and 0.93 for Nizhny Novgorod, a combined total of 1.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Baltika vs Nizhny Novgorod?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Baltika's recent record stands at 3W 5D 12L from 20 games, a 0.70 PPG return, with L-D-L-D-L in the last five.
Nizhny Novgorod, meanwhile, have gone 8W 4D 8L across 20 games — 1.40 PPG, with L-W-L-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Nizhny Novgorod by 0.70 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Baltika heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Baltika have managed 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.70 PPG overall — Baltika are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Nizhny Novgorod's away record stands at 1W 2D 7L across their last 10 away games, a 0.50 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.40 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Nizhny Novgorod's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Baltika come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Baltika are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Nizhny Novgorod are on 0.85 scored and 0.85 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Baltika have seen both teams score in 30% of their recent games; Nizhny Novgorod in 25%.
Defensively: Nizhny Novgorod in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baltika
Blended
Nizhny Novgorod
Blended
Baltika (Home) vs Nizhny Novgorod (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Baltika
Blended
Nizhny Novgorod
Blended
❓ Baltika vs Nizhny Novgorod Form FAQs
What form are Baltika and Nizhny Novgorod in coming into this match?
Baltika have gone 3W 5D 12L in their last 20 games (0.70 PPG), while Nizhny Novgorod have gone 8W 4D 8L in their last 20 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baltika at home or Nizhny Novgorod away?
Baltika's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baltika at home: 1.20 PPG; Nizhny Novgorod away: 0.50 PPG.
Have Baltika or Nizhny Novgorod been keeping clean sheets recently?
Baltika have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Nizhny Novgorod in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2023. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 11 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Baltika's record when hosting Nizhny Novgorod specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Baltika
3
Draws
0
Nizhny Novgorod
Recent Meetings
❓ Baltika vs Nizhny Novgorod H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Baltika and Nizhny Novgorod?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Baltika have won 1, Nizhny Novgorod have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Baltika and Nizhny Novgorod last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 April 2026: Baltika 2-2 Nizhny Novgorod.
Who has won more matches between Baltika and Nizhny Novgorod?
Baltika have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Baltika are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Nizhny Novgorod are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Baltika 30% BTTS, Nizhny Novgorod 20%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 30% for Baltika and 10% for Nizhny Novgorod.
On the defensive side: Baltika have failed to score in 50% of games; Nizhny Novgorod in 70%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baltika home games / Nizhny Novgorod away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Baltika vs Nizhny Novgorod Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Baltika and Nizhny Novgorod matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of Baltika's recent matches and 20% of Nizhny Novgorod's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Baltika and Nizhny Novgorod matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Baltika's recent games and 10% of Nizhny Novgorod's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Baltika and Nizhny Novgorod matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Baltika's recent matches and 60% of Nizhny Novgorod's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Baltika cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Nizhny Novgorod.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Baltika beat Nizhny Novgorod 2-0 at Rostec Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baltika 0.78 xG and Nizhny Novgorod 0.93 xG, a combined 1.72. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Baltika beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Nizhny Novgorod landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baltika attack 0.66 / defence 1.06 against Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.83 / defence 0.92, drawn from 20/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Baltika 26% | Draw 39% | Nizhny Novgorod 35%, with the draw its most likely call at 39%. The actual Baltika win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 22% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baltika 30%, Nizhny Novgorod 15%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 28%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baltika's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did not.
Nizhny Novgorod's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Nizhny Novgorod arrived the stronger side — 1.40 PPG against 0.70. Form was overturned, with Baltika winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Baltika (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line. Nizhny Novgorod (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.