Baltika 2-1 Krylia Sovetov – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Baltika at 35% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Baltika face Krylia Sovetov.

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Analysis & Preview

Krylia Sovetov travel to Rostec Arena to take on Baltika in Premier League (matchday 25). The game is scheduled for Saturday 20 April 2024 at 15:30 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Baltika have gone 2W 3D 5L — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D L W L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.

Baltika's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Krylia Sovetov stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

When travelling, Krylia Sovetov have posted 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Baltika 0.90 PPG, Krylia Sovetov 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H

The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Baltika, 1 for Krylia Sovetov and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 27 Aug 2023, ended Baltika 1–2 Krylia Sovetov — a Krylia Sovetov win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Baltika in-play and half-time data (last 23 games, 11 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games); they fail to score in 56% of games.

Krylia Sovetov in-play and half-time data (last 23 games, 11 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Baltika 30% versus Krylia Sovetov 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Baltika 30% | Krylia Sovetov 65%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Baltika 1.11 xG and Krylia Sovetov 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baltika attack 0.758 / defence 0.948 | Krylia Sovetov attack 0.949 / defence 1.073. League average goals — home 1.371 / away 1.173. Baltika's attack rating of 0.758 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.11. Data: built from Baltika's last 23 games and Krylia Sovetov's last 53.

Result probabilities: Baltika 35% | Draw 32% | Krylia Sovetov 32%. Fair-value odds: Baltika 2.82 | Draw 3.11 | Krylia Sovetov 3.08. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Baltika at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Baltika offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.17 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Baltika 20% (last 10 home games) | Krylia Sovetov 60% (last 10 away games).

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