Akron 2-0 Krylia Sovetov – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Krylia Sovetov at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Akron face Krylia Sovetov.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Akron welcome Krylia Sovetov to Solidarnost Samara Arena in Premier League (matchday 14). Kick-off is Sunday 3 November 2024 at 10:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Akron stand at 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W D L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
At home, Akron have gone 1W 1D 5L in their last 7 home games (0.57 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 2.57 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Krylia Sovetov — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Krylia Sovetov's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Akron 1.00 PPG, Krylia Sovetov 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
Akron trading profile (last 15 games, 7 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 60%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Krylia Sovetov trading profile (last 15 games, 7 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Akron 47% versus Krylia Sovetov 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Akron 60% | Krylia Sovetov 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Akron 1.25 xG and Krylia Sovetov 1.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Akron attack 0.976 / defence 1.570 | Krylia Sovetov attack 0.818 / defence 1.005. League average goals — home 1.275 / away 1.324. Akron's defence rating of 1.570 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Krylia Sovetov's projected output up. Data: built from Akron's last 13 games and Krylia Sovetov's last 43.
Result probabilities: Akron 25% | Draw 29% | Krylia Sovetov 45%. Fair-value odds: Akron 3.93 | Draw 3.40 | Krylia Sovetov 2.22. Krylia Sovetov hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.25 / 1.70) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Krylia Sovetov as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Krylia Sovetov offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.95 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Akron's last 7 home games and Krylia Sovetov's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Akron 57% (last 7 home games) | Krylia Sovetov 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Akron vs Krylia Sovetov | Competition: Premier League, matchday 14 | Venue: Solidarnost Samara Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 3 November 2024 at 10:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Akron 25% | Draw 29% | Krylia Sovetov 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% (Under 43%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG Akron 1.25 / Krylia Sovetov 1.70 • Poisson strength factors: Akron attack 0.976 / def 1.570 | Krylia Sovetov attack 0.818 / def 1.005 | league avg home 1.275 / away 1.324 • Poisson stance: Krylia Sovetov (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Akron xG
Expected Goals
1.70
Krylia Sovetov xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Akron vs Krylia Sovetov FAQs
What time does Akron vs Krylia Sovetov kick off?
Akron vs Krylia Sovetov kicked off at 10:00 UK time on Sunday 3 November 2024 at Solidarnost Samara Arena.
What was the final score in Akron vs Krylia Sovetov?
Akron 2 - 0 Krylia Sovetov.
Where is Akron vs Krylia Sovetov being played?
The match is being played at Solidarnost Samara Arena.
What competition is Akron vs Krylia Sovetov part of?
Akron vs Krylia Sovetov is a Premier League fixture (matchday 14) (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Akron vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our statistical model gives Akron a 25% chance of winning, Krylia Sovetov a 45% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Krylia Sovetov the favourite.
Will both teams score in Akron vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Akron and Krylia Sovetov will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Akron vs Krylia Sovetov have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Akron's attack at 0.98x the league average against Krylia Sovetov's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Krylia Sovetov's attack versus Akron's defence, projects 1.70 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Akron's last 13 games and Krylia Sovetov's last 43 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Krylia Sovetov Win
25%
3.93
29%
3.40
45%
2.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Akron xG
Total xG
2.95
1.70
Krylia Sovetov xG
3.93
25%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
2.22
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
18%
5.47
29%
3.49
Win to Nil
5%
21.50
13%
7.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 8.9 | 7.6 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 11.1 | 9.5 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 7.0 | 5.9 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Akron vs Krylia Sovetov Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Akron vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Akron and Krylia Sovetov expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Akron and 1.70 for Krylia Sovetov, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Akron vs Krylia Sovetov?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Akron's recent record stands at 4W 4D 7L from 15 games, a 1.07 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-D in the last five.
Krylia Sovetov, meanwhile, have gone 3W 4D 8L across 15 games — 0.87 PPG, with D-D-L-D-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Akron on 1.07 PPG, Krylia Sovetov on 0.87. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Akron have managed 1W 1D 5L from their last 7 home games — 0.57 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 1.07 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Krylia Sovetov's away record stands at 1W 2D 4L across their last 7 away games, a 0.71 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Akron are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.87 conceded per game recently; Krylia Sovetov are on 0.93 scored and 1.60 conceded.
Last 15 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Akron
Blended
Krylia Sovetov
Blended
Akron (Home) vs Krylia Sovetov (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Akron
Blended
Krylia Sovetov
Blended
❓ Akron vs Krylia Sovetov Form FAQs
What form are Akron and Krylia Sovetov in coming into this match?
Akron have gone 4W 4D 7L in their last 15 games (1.07 PPG), while Krylia Sovetov have gone 3W 4D 8L in their last 15 (0.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Akron at home or Krylia Sovetov away?
Krylia Sovetov's away record (0.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Akron at home: 0.57 PPG; Krylia Sovetov away: 0.71 PPG.
Have Akron or Krylia Sovetov been keeping clean sheets recently?
Akron have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Krylia Sovetov in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 5 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2024. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 23 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Krylia Sovetov have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 17 May 2026, when Krylia Sovetov won Krylia Sovetov 4-1 Akron.
Akron's record when hosting Krylia Sovetov specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Akron
1
Draws
2
Krylia Sovetov
Recent Meetings
❓ Akron vs Krylia Sovetov H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Akron and Krylia Sovetov?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Akron have won 2, Krylia Sovetov have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Akron and Krylia Sovetov last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 August 2026: Akron 0-3 Krylia Sovetov.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Akron are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 67% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Krylia Sovetov see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Akron 57%, Krylia Sovetov 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 86% for Akron and 43% for Krylia Sovetov. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Akron have failed to score in 29% of games; Krylia Sovetov in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Akron home games / Krylia Sovetov away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Akron vs Krylia Sovetov Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Akron and Krylia Sovetov matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Akron's recent matches and 43% of Krylia Sovetov's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Akron and Krylia Sovetov matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 86% of Akron's matches and 43% of Krylia Sovetov's.
Do Akron and Krylia Sovetov matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 86% of Akron's recent matches and 57% of Krylia Sovetov's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Akron cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Krylia Sovetov.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Akron beat Krylia Sovetov 2-0 at Solidarnost Samara Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Akron 1.25 xG and Krylia Sovetov 1.70 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Krylia Sovetov landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Akron attack 0.98 / defence 1.57 against Krylia Sovetov attack 0.82 / defence 1.00, drawn from 13/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Akron 25% | Draw 29% | Krylia Sovetov 45%, with Krylia Sovetov to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a Akron win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Akron 60%, Krylia Sovetov 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Akron's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Akron 1.07 PPG, Krylia Sovetov 0.87 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Akron win broke the near-deadlock. Akron (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.57 average — tighter than their form line. Krylia Sovetov (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.