Akhmat 1-3 Nizhny Novgorod – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Akhmat at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Akhmat vs Nizhny Novgorod fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Akhmat Arena plays host to Akhmat versus Nizhny Novgorod in Premier League, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Saturday 10 September 2022 at 17:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Akhmat have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D W L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Akhmat, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Akhmat Arena, Akhmat have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Nizhny Novgorod (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Nizhny Novgorod, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nizhny Novgorod's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Akhmat, 1.30 for Nizhny Novgorod — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Akhmat 2W, Nizhny Novgorod 0W, 0D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 May 2022, ended 1–0 with Akhmat winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Akhmat — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Nizhny Novgorod — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Akhmat 60% versus Nizhny Novgorod 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Akhmat 55% | Nizhny Novgorod 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Akhmat 1.30 xG and Nizhny Novgorod 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Akhmat attack 0.876 / defence 0.893 | Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.800 / defence 0.932. League average goals — home 1.588 / away 1.293. Data: 38 Akhmat games / 38 Nizhny Novgorod games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Akhmat 43% | Draw 33% | Nizhny Novgorod 24%. Fair-value odds: Akhmat 2.33 | Draw 3.03 | Nizhny Novgorod 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Akhmat as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Akhmat if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.22 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Akhmat 60% | Nizhny Novgorod 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Akhmat vs Nizhny Novgorod | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Akhmat Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Sep 2022, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Akhmat 43% | Draw 33% | Nizhny Novgorod 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 46% | xG Akhmat 1.30 / Nizhny Novgorod 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Akhmat attack 0.876 / def 0.893 | Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.800 / def 0.932 | league avg home 1.588 / away 1.293 • Poisson stance: Akhmat (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Akhmat xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Nizhny Novgorod xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Akhmat vs Nizhny Novgorod kick off?
Akhmat vs Nizhny Novgorod kicked off at 17:45 on Saturday 10 September 2022 at Akhmat Arena.
What was the final score in Akhmat vs Nizhny Novgorod?
Akhmat 1 - 3 Nizhny Novgorod.
Where is Akhmat vs Nizhny Novgorod being played?
The match is being played at Akhmat Arena.
What competition is Akhmat vs Nizhny Novgorod part of?
Akhmat vs Nizhny Novgorod is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Akhmat vs Nizhny Novgorod?
Our statistical model gives Akhmat a 43% chance of winning, Nizhny Novgorod a 24% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Akhmat the favourite.
Will both teams score in Akhmat vs Nizhny Novgorod?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Akhmat and Nizhny Novgorod will score (BTTS).
Will Akhmat vs Nizhny Novgorod have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Akhmat and Nizhny Novgorod?
Record (2 meetings): Akhmat 2W | Draws 0 | Nizhny Novgorod 0W.
What form are Akhmat and Nizhny Novgorod in?
Akhmat (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-L-W. Nizhny Novgorod (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Akhmat's attack at 0.88x the league average against Nizhny Novgorod's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.30 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Nizhny Novgorod's attack (0.80x) against Akhmat's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.5%), 1-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Akhmat Win
43%
2.32
33%
3.07
24%
4.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Akhmat xG
Total xG
2.22
0.92
Nizhny Novgorod xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
4.10
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
27%
3.66
Win to Nil
17%
5.86
7%
15.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 10.0 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 13.0 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 8.4 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Akhmat vs Nizhny Novgorod?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Akhmat and Nizhny Novgorod expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Akhmat and 0.92 for Nizhny Novgorod, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Akhmat vs Nizhny Novgorod?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 38 outings, Akhmat have picked up 1.39 PPG on a 16W 5D 17L record — D-W-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Akhmat is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nizhny Novgorod's form line: 10W 12D 16L from 38 games, 1.11 PPG, last five L-L-W-D-W. The sample for Nizhny Novgorod is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.39 PPG for Akhmat against 1.11 for Nizhny Novgorod. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Akhmat have posted 1.68 PPG from 19 outings (10W 2D 7L).
On the road, Nizhny Novgorod have gone 5W 7D 7L from 19 away games — 1.16 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Akhmat come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Akhmat are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Nizhny Novgorod are on 1.03 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Akhmat have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 38 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Akhmat
Blended
Nizhny Novgorod
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Akhmat and Nizhny Novgorod in coming into this match?
Akhmat have gone 16W 5D 17L in their last 38 games (1.39 PPG), while Nizhny Novgorod have gone 10W 12D 16L in their last 38 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Akhmat at home or Nizhny Novgorod away?
Akhmat's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Akhmat at home: 1.68 PPG; Nizhny Novgorod away: 1.16 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Akhmat go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Akhmat won 5-1 on 28 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Akhmat have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Nizhny Novgorod — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Akhmat
0
Draws
5
Nizhny Novgorod
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Akhmat and Nizhny Novgorod?
From 10 meetings on record, Akhmat have won 5, Nizhny Novgorod have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Akhmat and Nizhny Novgorod last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Akhmat 2-0 Nizhny Novgorod.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Akhmat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Nizhny Novgorod see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Akhmat 58%, Nizhny Novgorod 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Akhmat) and 47% (Nizhny Novgorod).
On the defensive side: Nizhny Novgorod in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Akhmat home games / Nizhny Novgorod away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Akhmat play Nizhny Novgorod?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Akhmat's games and 58% of Nizhny Novgorod's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Akhmat vs Nizhny Novgorod usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Akhmat's recent games and 47% of Nizhny Novgorod's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Akhmat and Nizhny Novgorod tend to score early?
Akhmat have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Nizhny Novgorod in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Nizhny Novgorod cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Akhmat.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nizhny Novgorod beat Akhmat 1-3 at Akhmat Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Akhmat 1.30 xG and Nizhny Novgorod 0.92 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Nizhny Novgorod outscored their 0.92 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Akhmat attack 0.88 / defence 0.89 against Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.80 / defence 0.93, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Akhmat 43% | Draw 33% | Nizhny Novgorod 24%, with Akhmat to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a Nizhny Novgorod win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Akhmat 55%, Nizhny Novgorod 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Akhmat's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Nizhny Novgorod's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Akhmat 1.39 PPG, Nizhny Novgorod 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nizhny Novgorod win broke the near-deadlock. Akhmat (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Nizhny Novgorod (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.