Vizela 1-1 Pacos Ferreira – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Vizela take on Pacos Ferreira.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Vizela and Pacos Ferreira meet at Estádio Do Vizela in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 6. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 19 September 2021 at 15:30 UTC.
Form
Vizela (all games): 1W 2D 2L across 5 Primeira Liga fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Vizela have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Pacos Ferreira's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W L L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 5 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Pacos Ferreira have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
Vizela — key trading statistics (5 games): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Pacos Ferreira — key trading statistics (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vizela 60% versus Pacos Ferreira 20%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vizela 80% | Pacos Ferreira 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vizela 1.19 xG and Pacos Ferreira 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vizela attack 0.995 / defence 1.144 | Pacos Ferreira attack 0.739 / defence 1.215. League average goals — home 0.986 / away 1.145. Pacos Ferreira bring a strong defensive rating of 1.215 — this is suppressing Vizela's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 5 Vizela games / 5 Pacos Ferreira games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vizela 37% | Draw 37% | Pacos Ferreira 26%. Fair-value odds: Vizela 2.70 | Draw 2.70 | Pacos Ferreira 3.85. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 37% and away win at 26% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.16 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates corroborate: Vizela 60% | Pacos Ferreira 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vizela vs Pacos Ferreira | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Estádio Do Vizela • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Sep 2021, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vizela 37% | Draw 37% | Pacos Ferreira 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 47% | xG Vizela 1.19 / Pacos Ferreira 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Vizela attack 0.995 / def 1.144 | Pacos Ferreira attack 0.739 / def 1.215 | league avg home 0.986 / away 1.145 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Vizela xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Pacos Ferreira xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vizela vs Pacos Ferreira kick off?
Vizela vs Pacos Ferreira kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 19 September 2021 at Estádio Do Vizela.
What was the final score in Vizela vs Pacos Ferreira?
Vizela 1 - 1 Pacos Ferreira.
Where is Vizela vs Pacos Ferreira being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Do Vizela.
What competition is Vizela vs Pacos Ferreira part of?
Vizela vs Pacos Ferreira is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Vizela vs Pacos Ferreira?
Our statistical model gives Vizela a 37% chance of winning, Pacos Ferreira a 26% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Vizela vs Pacos Ferreira?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Vizela and Pacos Ferreira will score (BTTS).
Will Vizela vs Pacos Ferreira have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vizela and Pacos Ferreira?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Vizela and Pacos Ferreira in?
Vizela (all comps): 1W-2D-2L in 5 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-W-L-D-D. Pacos Ferreira (all comps): 2W-1D-2L in 5 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Vizela's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Pacos Ferreira's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.19. Flip it around — Pacos Ferreira's attack (0.74x) against Vizela's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.3%), 1-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
37%
2.70
37%
2.69
26%
3.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Vizela xG
Total xG
2.16
0.97
Pacos Ferreira xG
2.70
37%
Home win
2.69
37%
Draw
3.89
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
30%
3.29
Win to Nil
14%
7.10
8%
12.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 11.2 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 13.3 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 7.9 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vizela vs Pacos Ferreira?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Vizela and Pacos Ferreira expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Vizela and 0.97 for Pacos Ferreira, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Vizela vs Pacos Ferreira?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 5 outings, Vizela have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 1W 2D 2L record — L-W-L-D-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Vizela, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Pacos Ferreira's form line: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games, 1.40 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-D. It's still early in the season for Pacos Ferreira, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Vizela against 1.40 for Pacos Ferreira. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Attack vs Defence
Vizela are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game recently; Pacos Ferreira are on 0.80 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Vizela have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Pacos Ferreira in 20%.
Defensively: Pacos Ferreira in 60% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vizela
Early Season
Pacos Ferreira
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vizela and Pacos Ferreira in coming into this match?
Vizela have gone 1W 2D 2L in their last 5 games (1.00 PPG), while Pacos Ferreira have gone 2W 1D 2L in their last 5 (1.40 PPG).
Have Vizela or Pacos Ferreira been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vizela have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Pacos Ferreira in 60%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vizela have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Pacos Ferreira — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Vizela
1
Draws
2
Pacos Ferreira
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vizela and Pacos Ferreira?
From 4 meetings on record, Vizela have won 1, Pacos Ferreira have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Vizela and Pacos Ferreira last play each other?
They last met on 29 April 2023, when Vizela 1-2 Pacos Ferreira.
Who has won more matches between Vizela and Pacos Ferreira?
Pacos Ferreira have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Vizela see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Pacos Ferreira are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vizela 60%, Pacos Ferreira 20% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Vizela and 40% for Pacos Ferreira. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Pacos Ferreira in 60%; Vizela have failed to score in 40% of games; Pacos Ferreira in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vizela home games / Pacos Ferreira away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vizela play Pacos Ferreira?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Vizela's recent matches and 20% of Pacos Ferreira's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vizela vs Pacos Ferreira usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Vizela's matches and 40% of Pacos Ferreira's.
Do Vizela and Pacos Ferreira tend to score early?
Vizela have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Pacos Ferreira in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Vizela and Pacos Ferreira share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio Do Vizela, Regular Season - 6, as Vizela and Pacos Ferreira drew 1-1 in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vizela 1.19 xG and Pacos Ferreira 0.97 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vizela attack 0.99 / defence 1.14 against Pacos Ferreira attack 0.74 / defence 1.22, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vizela 37% | Draw 37% | Pacos Ferreira 26%, with Vizela to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vizela 80%, Pacos Ferreira 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vizela's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Pacos Ferreira's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 20% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vizela 1.00 PPG, Pacos Ferreira 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Vizela conceded 1 against a 2.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.