Tondela 1-1 Alverca – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Tondela at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Tondela vs Alverca fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Tondela and Alverca meet at Estádio João Cardoso in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 22. This fixture gets under way on Friday 13 February 2026 at 20:45 UTC.
Current Form
Tondela's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Tondela, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Tondela's home record at Estádio João Cardoso: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Primeira Liga appearances (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Alverca (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Primeira Liga outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: W W L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Alverca, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Primeira Liga this season, Alverca have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Alverca are 0.50 PPG clear of Tondela in recent Primeira Liga fixtures (1.30 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Tondela, 1 for Alverca and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2025, ended 0–1 with Alverca winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Tondela half-time and goal-timing data (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 30% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 62% of games.
Alverca half-time and goal-timing data (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tondela 33% versus Alverca 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tondela 57% | Alverca 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tondela 1.25 xG and Alverca 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tondela attack 0.629 / defence 0.976 | Alverca attack 0.772 / defence 1.293. League average goals — home 1.539 / away 1.248. Tondela's attack strength of 0.629 is below the league average — the 1.25 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Alverca bring a strong defensive rating of 1.293 — this is suppressing Tondela's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 21 Tondela games / 21 Alverca games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tondela 43% | Draw 29% | Alverca 28%. Fair-value odds: Tondela 2.33 | Draw 3.45 | Alverca 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Tondela as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Alverca (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Tondela if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.19 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: Tondela 30% | Alverca 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tondela vs Alverca | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Estádio João Cardoso • Kick-off: Friday 13 Feb 2026, 20:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tondela 43% | Draw 29% | Alverca 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Tondela 1.25 / Alverca 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Tondela attack 0.629 / def 0.976 | Alverca attack 0.772 / def 1.293 | league avg home 1.539 / away 1.248 • Poisson stance: Tondela (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Tondela xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Alverca xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tondela vs Alverca kick off?
Tondela vs Alverca kicked off at 20:45 on Friday 13 February 2026 at Estádio João Cardoso.
What was the final score in Tondela vs Alverca?
Tondela 1 - 1 Alverca.
Where is Tondela vs Alverca being played?
The match is being played at Estádio João Cardoso.
What competition is Tondela vs Alverca part of?
Tondela vs Alverca is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Tondela vs Alverca?
Our statistical model gives Tondela a 43% chance of winning, Alverca a 28% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Tondela the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tondela vs Alverca?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Tondela and Alverca will score (BTTS).
Will Tondela vs Alverca have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tondela and Alverca?
Record (1 meetings): Tondela 0W | Draws 0 | Alverca 1W.
What form are Tondela and Alverca in?
Tondela (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-D-D. Alverca (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Tondela's attack rating (0.63) and Alverca's defence rating (1.29), the model arrives at 1.25 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Alverca's attack (0.77x) against Tondela's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 1-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tondela Win
43%
2.30
29%
3.48
28%
3.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Tondela xG
Total xG
2.19
0.94
Alverca xG
2.30
43%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
3.59
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.30
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
39%
2.56
29%
3.49
Win to Nil
17%
5.89
8%
12.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 10.5 | 4.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.0 | 13.1 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.2 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tondela vs Alverca?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Tondela and Alverca expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Tondela and 0.94 for Alverca, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Tondela vs Alverca?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 21 outings, Tondela have picked up 0.67 PPG on a 3W 5D 13L record — L-L-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Tondela is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Alverca's form line: 7W 3D 11L from 21 games, 1.14 PPG, last five W-W-L-D-L. The sample for Alverca is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Alverca are the form team by 0.47 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Tondela.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Tondela have posted 0.60 PPG from 10 outings (1W 3D 6L).
On the road, Alverca have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.14 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Alverca's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Tondela are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Alverca are on 1.00 scored and 1.71 conceded.
Last 21 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tondela
Blended
Alverca
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tondela and Alverca in coming into this match?
Tondela have gone 3W 5D 13L in their last 21 games (0.67 PPG), while Alverca have gone 7W 3D 11L in their last 21 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tondela at home or Alverca away?
Alverca's away record (0.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tondela at home: 0.60 PPG; Alverca away: 0.70 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since September 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Tondela
1
Draws
1
Alverca
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tondela and Alverca?
From 2 meetings on record, Tondela have won 0, Alverca have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Tondela and Alverca last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when Tondela 1-1 Alverca.
Who has won more matches between Tondela and Alverca?
Alverca have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Tondela tend to start slowly — only 30% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Alverca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tondela 30%, Alverca 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Tondela) and 70% (Alverca). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Tondela have failed to score in 70% of games; Alverca in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tondela home games / Alverca away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tondela play Alverca?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of Tondela's recent matches and 60% of Alverca's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Tondela vs Alverca usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 40% of Tondela's matches and 70% of Alverca's.
Do Tondela and Alverca tend to score early?
Tondela have had a goal before half-time in 30% of their recent matches, Alverca in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Tondela and Alverca share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tondela and Alverca finished level at 1-1 at Estádio João Cardoso, Regular Season - 22, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tondela 1.25 xG and Alverca 0.94 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tondela attack 0.63 / defence 0.98 against Alverca attack 0.77 / defence 1.29, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tondela 43% | Draw 29% | Alverca 28%, with Tondela to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tondela 57%, Alverca 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tondela's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.
Alverca's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Alverca arrived the stronger side — 1.14 PPG against 0.67. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Alverca (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.10 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.