Sporting CP 3-1 Casa Pia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sporting CP at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sporting CP vs Casa Pia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Casa Pia make the trip to Estádio José Alvalade to face Sporting CP in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Saturday 22 October 2022 at 20:30 UTC.
Form
Sporting CP (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Sporting CP, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sporting CP's form when playing at home: 8W 0D 2L across 10 games at Estádio José Alvalade this term (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio José Alvalade. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Sporting CP are significantly better at Estádio José Alvalade than their overall form suggests.
Casa Pia's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 5W 2D 2L from 9 games (1.89 PPG). Last five: D W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.56 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.56 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 9 games (56%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 22% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Casa Pia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Casa Pia have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 away fixtures this term (2.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from 4 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.50 exceeds their overall 1.89 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.90 for Sporting CP, 1.89 for Casa Pia — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
Sporting CP — key trading statistics (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games).
Casa Pia — key trading statistics (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time; they fail to score in 44% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Sporting CP 44% | Casa Pia 22%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sporting CP 78% | Casa Pia 22%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sporting CP 1.83 xG and Casa Pia 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sporting CP attack 1.371 / defence 0.878 | Casa Pia attack 1.041 / defence 1.009. League average goals — home 1.321 / away 1.100. Sporting CP carry an above-average attack strength of 1.371 — their λ of 1.83 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 43 Sporting CP games / 9 Casa Pia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sporting CP 57% | Draw 23% | Casa Pia 21%. Fair-value odds: Sporting CP 1.75 | Draw 4.35 | Casa Pia 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Sporting CP (57%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sporting CP as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.83 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Sporting CP 20% | Casa Pia 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sporting CP vs Casa Pia | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Estádio José Alvalade • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Oct 2022, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sporting CP 57% | Draw 23% | Casa Pia 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 53% | xG Sporting CP 1.83 / Casa Pia 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Sporting CP attack 1.371 / def 0.878 | Casa Pia attack 1.041 / def 1.009 | league avg home 1.321 / away 1.100 • Poisson stance: Sporting CP (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Sporting CP xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Casa Pia xG
53%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sporting CP vs Casa Pia kick off?
Sporting CP vs Casa Pia kicked off at 20:30 on Saturday 22 October 2022 at Estádio José Alvalade.
What was the final score in Sporting CP vs Casa Pia?
Sporting CP 3 - 1 Casa Pia.
Where is Sporting CP vs Casa Pia being played?
The match is being played at Estádio José Alvalade.
What competition is Sporting CP vs Casa Pia part of?
Sporting CP vs Casa Pia is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Sporting CP vs Casa Pia?
Our statistical model gives Sporting CP a 57% chance of winning, Casa Pia a 21% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Sporting CP the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sporting CP vs Casa Pia?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Sporting CP and Casa Pia will score (BTTS).
Will Sporting CP vs Casa Pia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sporting CP and Casa Pia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sporting CP and Casa Pia in?
Sporting CP (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Casa Pia (all comps): 5W-2D-2L in 9 | 1.89 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.56 | L5 D-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Sporting CP's attack at 1.37x the league average against Casa Pia's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.83 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Casa Pia's attack (1.04x) against Sporting CP's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 43/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sporting CP Win
57%
1.76
23%
4.39
21%
4.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Sporting CP xG
Total xG
2.83
1.00
Casa Pia xG
1.76
57%
Home win
4.39
23%
Draw
4.87
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
16%
6.22
Win to Nil
21%
4.82
3%
30.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 10.8 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sporting CP vs Casa Pia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Sporting CP and Casa Pia expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Sporting CP and 1.00 for Casa Pia, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Sporting CP vs Casa Pia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sporting CP's recent record stands at 5W 1D 3L from 9 games, a 1.78 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Sporting CP is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Casa Pia, meanwhile, have gone 5W 2D 2L across 9 games — 1.89 PPG, with D-W-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Casa Pia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.78 PPG for Sporting CP against 1.89 for Casa Pia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Sporting CP have managed 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — 2.25 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.78 PPG overall — Sporting CP are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Casa Pia's away record stands at 3W 1D 0L across 4 trips, a 2.50 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 1.89 PPG overall record — Casa Pia travel well.
Attack vs Defence
Sporting CP are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Casa Pia are on 1.00 scored and 0.56 conceded. Sporting CP's scoring rate against Casa Pia's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Casa Pia in 22%.
Defensively: Casa Pia in 56% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 9 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sporting CP
Blended
Casa Pia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sporting CP and Casa Pia in coming into this match?
Sporting CP have gone 5W 1D 3L in their last 9 games (1.78 PPG), while Casa Pia have gone 5W 2D 2L in their last 9 (1.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sporting CP at home or Casa Pia away?
Casa Pia's away record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sporting CP at home: 2.25 PPG; Casa Pia away: 2.50 PPG.
Have Sporting CP or Casa Pia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sporting CP have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Casa Pia in 56%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 16 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Sporting CP have taken the last 8 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sporting CP won 8-0 on 29 Jan 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sporting CP have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Casa Pia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
8
Sporting CP
0
Draws
0
Casa Pia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sporting CP and Casa Pia?
From 8 meetings on record, Sporting CP have won 8, Casa Pia have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sporting CP and Casa Pia last play each other?
They last met on 16 January 2026, when Sporting CP 3-0 Casa Pia.
Who has won more matches between Sporting CP and Casa Pia?
Sporting CP have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sporting CP are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time.
Casa Pia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sporting CP 25%, Casa Pia 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Sporting CP and 50% for Casa Pia. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sporting CP keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Casa Pia in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sporting CP home games / Casa Pia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sporting CP play Casa Pia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Sporting CP's recent matches and 50% of Casa Pia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sporting CP vs Casa Pia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Sporting CP's matches and 50% of Casa Pia's.
Do Sporting CP and Casa Pia tend to score early?
Sporting CP have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Casa Pia in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sporting CP cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Casa Pia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sporting CP beat Casa Pia 3-1 at Estádio José Alvalade, Regular Season - 10, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sporting CP 1.83 xG and Casa Pia 1.00 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Sporting CP beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sporting CP attack 1.37 / defence 0.88 against Casa Pia attack 1.04 / defence 1.01, drawn from 43/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sporting CP 57% | Draw 23% | Casa Pia 21%, with Sporting CP to win its most likely call at 57%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sporting CP 78%, Casa Pia 22%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sporting CP's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Casa Pia's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 22% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sporting CP 1.78 PPG, Casa Pia 1.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sporting CP win broke the near-deadlock. Casa Pia (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.