SC Braga 3-0 Benfica – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Benfica at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SC Braga vs Benfica encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Benfica make the trip to Estádio Municipal de Braga to face SC Braga in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Friday 30 December 2022 at 21:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
SC Braga have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 7W 0D 3L. Last five: L W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for SC Braga, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estádio Municipal de Braga, SC Braga have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Municipal de Braga. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Benfica (all games): 9W 1D 0L across 10 Primeira Liga outings this term — 2.80 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.90 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Benfica, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Benfica have gone 8W 1D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 8 away clean sheets from 10 games (80%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On a straight form reading, Benfica are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (2.80 vs 2.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Both sides have a strong clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — SC Braga have seen both teams score in just 20% of their games, Benfica in only 20%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from both squads' form records.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: SC Braga 1W, Benfica 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 6.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 1 Apr 2022, ended 3–2 with SC Braga winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
SC Braga goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
Benfica goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SC Braga 40% versus Benfica 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Braga 47% | Benfica 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Braga 0.88 xG and Benfica 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Braga attack 0.995 / defence 0.899 | Benfica attack 1.300 / defence 0.642. League average goals — home 1.373 / away 1.112. Benfica's defence strength of 0.642 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Benfica have an above-average attack strength of 1.300 — the away xG of 1.30 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 47 SC Braga games / 47 Benfica games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Braga 25% | Draw 28% | Benfica 46%. Fair-value odds: SC Braga 4.00 | Draw 3.57 | Benfica 2.17. Benfica hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Benfica as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Benfica if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.18 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SC Braga 20% | Benfica 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Braga vs Benfica | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Estádio Municipal de Braga • Kick-off: Friday 30 Dec 2022, 21:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Braga 25% | Draw 28% | Benfica 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 42% | xG SC Braga 0.88 / Benfica 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: SC Braga attack 0.995 / def 0.899 | Benfica attack 1.300 / def 0.642 | league avg home 1.373 / away 1.112 • Poisson stance: Benfica (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
SC Braga xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Benfica xG
42%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Braga vs Benfica kick off?
SC Braga vs Benfica kicked off at 21:15 on Friday 30 December 2022 at Estádio Municipal de Braga.
What was the final score in SC Braga vs Benfica?
SC Braga 3 - 0 Benfica.
Where is SC Braga vs Benfica being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal de Braga.
What competition is SC Braga vs Benfica part of?
SC Braga vs Benfica is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win SC Braga vs Benfica?
Our statistical model gives SC Braga a 25% chance of winning, Benfica a 46% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Benfica the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Braga vs Benfica?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both SC Braga and Benfica will score (BTTS).
Will SC Braga vs Benfica have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Braga and Benfica?
Record (2 meetings): SC Braga 1W | Draws 0 | Benfica 1W.
What form are SC Braga and Benfica in?
SC Braga (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. Benfica (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from SC Braga's attack rating (0.99) and Benfica's defence rating (0.64), the model arrives at 0.88 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Benfica's attack (1.30x) against SC Braga's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (13.1%), 0-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benfica Win
25%
3.97
28%
3.51
46%
2.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
SC Braga xG
Total xG
2.18
1.30
Benfica xG
3.97
25%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
2.16
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.35
58%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
27%
3.67
42%
2.40
Win to Nil
7%
14.55
19%
5.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 14.7 | 9.6 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.9 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 5.7 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Braga vs Benfica?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are SC Braga and Benfica expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for SC Braga and 1.30 for Benfica, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Braga vs Benfica?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 47 outings, SC Braga have picked up 1.98 PPG on a 28W 9D 10L record — L-W-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for SC Braga is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Benfica's form line: 35W 6D 6L from 47 games, 2.36 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Benfica is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.98 PPG for SC Braga against 2.36 for Benfica. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, SC Braga have posted 1.91 PPG from 23 outings (13W 5D 5L).
On the road, Benfica have gone 18W 3D 2L from 23 away games — 2.48 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benfica come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
SC Braga are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Benfica are on 2.45 scored and 0.79 conceded. Benfica's attacking output running into SC Braga's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: SC Braga have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their games; Benfica in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Braga
Blended
Benfica
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Braga and Benfica in coming into this match?
SC Braga have gone 28W 9D 10L in their last 47 games (1.98 PPG), while Benfica have gone 35W 6D 6L in their last 47 (2.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Braga at home or Benfica away?
Benfica's away record (2.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Braga at home: 1.91 PPG; Benfica away: 2.48 PPG.
Have SC Braga or Benfica been keeping clean sheets recently?
SC Braga have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their recent games, Benfica in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 11 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Benfica won 6-1 on 7 Nov 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SC Braga have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Benfica — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
SC Braga
3
Draws
4
Benfica
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Braga and Benfica?
From 10 meetings on record, SC Braga have won 3, Benfica have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did SC Braga and Benfica last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2026, when Benfica 2-2 SC Braga.
Who has won more matches between SC Braga and Benfica?
Benfica have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SC Braga see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Benfica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 61% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SC Braga 35%, Benfica 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (SC Braga) and 52% (Benfica).
On the defensive side: SC Braga keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Benfica in 56%; SC Braga have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Braga home games / Benfica away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Braga play Benfica?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of SC Braga's recent matches and 44% of Benfica's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SC Braga vs Benfica usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of SC Braga's recent games and 52% of Benfica's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SC Braga and Benfica tend to score early?
SC Braga have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Benfica in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant SC Braga run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Benfica.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Braga beat Benfica 3-0 at Estádio Municipal de Braga, Regular Season - 14, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Braga 0.88 xG and Benfica 1.30 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. SC Braga beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Benfica landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Braga attack 0.99 / defence 0.90 against Benfica attack 1.30 / defence 0.64, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Braga 25% | Draw 28% | Benfica 46%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a SC Braga win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Braga 47%, Benfica 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Braga's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and duly kept one.
Benfica's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SC Braga 1.98 PPG, Benfica 2.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SC Braga win broke the near-deadlock. SC Braga (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.65 average — above their attacking norm. Benfica (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.30 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.65 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.