Santa Clara 2-1 Maritimo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Santa Clara at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Santa Clara vs Maritimo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primeira Liga clash, Regular Season - 5 as Santa Clara welcome Maritimo to Estádio de São Miguel. Kick-off is set for Sunday 4 September 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Santa Clara stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Santa Clara have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Estádio de São Miguel, Santa Clara have gone 4W 5D 1L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Santa Clara are significantly better at Estádio de São Miguel than their overall form suggests.
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Maritimo have recorded 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Maritimo have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Maritimo have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 exceeds their overall 0.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Santa Clara are in the better shape of the two on current Primeira Liga data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.00 vs 0.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Santa Clara, 1 for Maritimo and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Apr 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Santa Clara in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Maritimo in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Santa Clara 55% versus Maritimo 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Santa Clara 55% | Maritimo 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Santa Clara 1.79 xG and Maritimo 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Santa Clara attack 0.923 / defence 0.999 | Maritimo attack 0.891 / defence 1.560. League average goals — home 1.240 / away 1.188. Maritimo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.560 — this is suppressing Santa Clara's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 38 Santa Clara games / 38 Maritimo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Santa Clara 54% | Draw 23% | Maritimo 22%. Fair-value odds: Santa Clara 1.85 | Draw 4.35 | Maritimo 4.55. Santa Clara hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Santa Clara are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Santa Clara offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.84 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Santa Clara 60% | Maritimo 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Santa Clara vs Maritimo | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Estádio de São Miguel • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Sep 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Santa Clara 54% | Draw 23% | Maritimo 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 54% | xG Santa Clara 1.79 / Maritimo 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Santa Clara attack 0.923 / def 0.999 | Maritimo attack 0.891 / def 1.560 | league avg home 1.240 / away 1.188 • Poisson stance: Santa Clara (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Santa Clara xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Maritimo xG
54%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Santa Clara vs Maritimo kick off?
Santa Clara vs Maritimo kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 4 September 2022 at Estádio de São Miguel.
What was the final score in Santa Clara vs Maritimo?
Santa Clara 2 - 1 Maritimo.
Where is Santa Clara vs Maritimo being played?
The match is being played at Estádio de São Miguel.
What competition is Santa Clara vs Maritimo part of?
Santa Clara vs Maritimo is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Santa Clara vs Maritimo?
Our statistical model gives Santa Clara a 54% chance of winning, Maritimo a 22% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Santa Clara the favourite.
Will both teams score in Santa Clara vs Maritimo?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Santa Clara and Maritimo will score (BTTS).
Will Santa Clara vs Maritimo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Santa Clara and Maritimo?
Record (2 meetings): Santa Clara 0W | Draws 1 | Maritimo 1W.
What form are Santa Clara and Maritimo in?
Santa Clara (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Maritimo (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Santa Clara's attack rating (0.92) and Maritimo's defence rating (1.56), the model arrives at 1.79 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Maritimo's attack versus Santa Clara's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Santa Clara Win
54%
1.84
23%
4.30
22%
4.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Santa Clara xG
Total xG
2.84
1.06
Maritimo xG
1.84
54%
Home win
4.30
23%
Draw
4.48
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
35%
2.88
17%
5.97
Win to Nil
19%
5.28
4%
26.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 6.2 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 11.0 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.8 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Santa Clara vs Maritimo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Santa Clara and Maritimo expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Santa Clara and 1.06 for Maritimo, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Santa Clara vs Maritimo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Santa Clara come into this having played 38 games, going 9W 14D 15L for 1.08 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Santa Clara, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Maritimo sit at 1.00 PPG from 38 outings (9W 11D 18L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Maritimo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Santa Clara on 1.08 PPG, Maritimo on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Santa Clara's home form reads 8W 7D 4L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.63 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.08 PPG overall — Santa Clara are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Maritimo have taken 1.05 points per game from 19 outings (5W 5D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Santa Clara come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Santa Clara are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Maritimo are on 1.08 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Santa Clara
Early Season
Maritimo
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Santa Clara and Maritimo in coming into this match?
Santa Clara have gone 9W 14D 15L in their last 38 games (1.08 PPG), while Maritimo have gone 9W 11D 18L in their last 38 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Santa Clara at home or Maritimo away?
Santa Clara's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Santa Clara at home: 1.63 PPG; Maritimo away: 1.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Dec 2021, when Maritimo won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Santa Clara's record when hosting Maritimo specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Santa Clara
1
Draws
2
Maritimo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Santa Clara and Maritimo?
From 4 meetings on record, Santa Clara have won 1, Maritimo have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Santa Clara and Maritimo last play each other?
They last met on 25 February 2023, when Maritimo 3-1 Santa Clara.
Who has won more matches between Santa Clara and Maritimo?
Maritimo have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Santa Clara are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Maritimo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Santa Clara 53%, Maritimo 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Santa Clara) and 58% (Maritimo). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Santa Clara keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Santa Clara have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Santa Clara home games / Maritimo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Santa Clara play Maritimo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Santa Clara's games and 63% of Maritimo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Santa Clara vs Maritimo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Santa Clara's matches and 58% of Maritimo's.
Do Santa Clara and Maritimo tend to score early?
Santa Clara have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Maritimo in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Santa Clara edge out Maritimo 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Santa Clara beat Maritimo 2-1 at Estádio de São Miguel, Regular Season - 5, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Santa Clara 1.79 xG and Maritimo 1.06 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Santa Clara attack 0.92 / defence 1.00 against Maritimo attack 0.89 / defence 1.56, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Santa Clara 54% | Draw 23% | Maritimo 22%, with Santa Clara to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Santa Clara 55%, Maritimo 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Santa Clara's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Maritimo's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Santa Clara 1.08 PPG, Maritimo 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Santa Clara win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.