Santa Clara 1-0 GIL Vicente – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Santa Clara take on GIL Vicente.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Santa Clara host GIL Vicente at Estádio de São Miguel in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 29 August 2021 at 20:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Santa Clara — All Games: 0W 1D 2L from 3 Primeira Liga outings this season, averaging 0.33 points per game. Last five: L D L. They are averaging 0.67 goals per game and conceding 2.33 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.33 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Santa Clara have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, GIL Vicente stand at 2W 0D 1L from 3 Primeira Liga matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.33 per game is modest, conceding 0.67 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 3 games (67%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. GIL Vicente have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour GIL Vicente — 1.67 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 0.33). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Profile
Santa Clara in-play tendencies (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
GIL Vicente in-play tendencies (3 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Santa Clara 33% | GIL Vicente 0%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Santa Clara 67% | GIL Vicente 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Santa Clara 1.15 xG and GIL Vicente 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Santa Clara attack 1.060 / defence 1.281 | GIL Vicente attack 0.848 / defence 1.002. League average goals — home 1.086 / away 1.038. Data: 3 Santa Clara games / 3 GIL Vicente games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Santa Clara 32% | Draw 36% | GIL Vicente 31%. Fair-value odds: Santa Clara 3.12 | Draw 2.78 | GIL Vicente 3.23. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 31% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.28 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Santa Clara 33% | GIL Vicente 0% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Santa Clara vs GIL Vicente | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Estádio de São Miguel • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Aug 2021, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Santa Clara 32% | Draw 36% | GIL Vicente 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 50% | xG Santa Clara 1.15 / GIL Vicente 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Santa Clara attack 1.060 / def 1.281 | GIL Vicente attack 0.848 / def 1.002 | league avg home 1.086 / away 1.038 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Santa Clara xG
Expected Goals
1.13
GIL Vicente xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Santa Clara vs GIL Vicente kick off?
Santa Clara vs GIL Vicente kicked off at 20:30 on Sunday 29 August 2021 at Estádio de São Miguel.
What was the final score in Santa Clara vs GIL Vicente?
Santa Clara 1 - 0 GIL Vicente.
Where is Santa Clara vs GIL Vicente being played?
The match is being played at Estádio de São Miguel.
What competition is Santa Clara vs GIL Vicente part of?
Santa Clara vs GIL Vicente is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Santa Clara vs GIL Vicente?
Our statistical model gives Santa Clara a 32% chance of winning, GIL Vicente a 31% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Santa Clara vs GIL Vicente?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Santa Clara and GIL Vicente will score (BTTS).
Will Santa Clara vs GIL Vicente have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Santa Clara and GIL Vicente?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Santa Clara and GIL Vicente in?
Santa Clara (all comps): 0W-1D-2L in 3 | 0.33 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 2.33 | L5 L-D-L. GIL Vicente (all comps): 2W-0D-1L in 3 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 0.67 | L5 W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Santa Clara's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against GIL Vicente's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.15. The same calculation in reverse, GIL Vicente's attack versus Santa Clara's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 3/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.09
36%
2.74
31%
3.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Santa Clara xG
Total xG
2.28
1.13
GIL Vicente xG
3.09
32%
Home win
2.74
36%
Draw
3.21
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
32%
3.09
32%
3.17
Win to Nil
10%
9.54
10%
10.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 11.5 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.3 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 7.7 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Santa Clara vs GIL Vicente?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Santa Clara and GIL Vicente expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Santa Clara and 1.13 for GIL Vicente, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Santa Clara vs GIL Vicente?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Santa Clara come into this having played 3 games, going 0W 1D 2L for 0.33 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L. It's still early in the season for Santa Clara, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, GIL Vicente sit at 2.00 PPG from 3 outings (2W 0D 1L), a run that reads W-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for GIL Vicente, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
GIL Vicente carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.67 PPG clear of Santa Clara — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
Santa Clara are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game recently; GIL Vicente are on 1.33 scored and 0.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: GIL Vicente in 0%.
Defensively: GIL Vicente in 67% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 3 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Santa Clara
Early Season
GIL Vicente
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Santa Clara and GIL Vicente in coming into this match?
Santa Clara have gone 0W 1D 2L in their last 3 games (0.33 PPG), while GIL Vicente have gone 2W 0D 1L in their last 3 (2.00 PPG).
Have Santa Clara or GIL Vicente been keeping clean sheets recently?
Santa Clara have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, GIL Vicente in 67%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Santa Clara's record when hosting GIL Vicente specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Santa Clara
1
Draws
2
GIL Vicente
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Santa Clara and GIL Vicente?
From 8 meetings on record, Santa Clara have won 5, GIL Vicente have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Santa Clara and GIL Vicente last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Santa Clara 1-0 GIL Vicente.
Who has won more matches between Santa Clara and GIL Vicente?
Santa Clara have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Santa Clara are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
GIL Vicente see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Santa Clara 33% BTTS, GIL Vicente 0%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Santa Clara) and 33% (GIL Vicente).
On the defensive side: GIL Vicente in 67%; Santa Clara have failed to score in 67% of games; GIL Vicente in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Santa Clara home games / GIL Vicente away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Santa Clara play GIL Vicente?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Santa Clara's recent matches and 0% of GIL Vicente's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Santa Clara vs GIL Vicente usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Santa Clara's recent games and 33% of GIL Vicente's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Santa Clara and GIL Vicente tend to score early?
Santa Clara have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, GIL Vicente in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Santa Clara edge out GIL Vicente 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Santa Clara beat GIL Vicente 1-0 at Estádio de São Miguel, Regular Season - 4, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Santa Clara 1.15 xG and GIL Vicente 1.13 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. GIL Vicente landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Santa Clara attack 1.06 / defence 1.28 against GIL Vicente attack 0.85 / defence 1.00, drawn from 3/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Santa Clara 32% | Draw 36% | GIL Vicente 31%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The actual Santa Clara win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Santa Clara 67%, GIL Vicente 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 17%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Santa Clara's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not.
GIL Vicente's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, GIL Vicente arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.33. Form was overturned, with Santa Clara winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Santa Clara conceded 0 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line. GIL Vicente managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.