Santa Clara 1-1 Chaves – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Chaves at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Santa Clara vs Chaves encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Chaves make the trip to Estádio de São Miguel to face Santa Clara in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Sunday 23 April 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Santa Clara's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 0W 1D 9L from 10 games (0.10 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly.
Santa Clara's home record at Estádio de São Miguel: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Primeira Liga appearances (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Chaves (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Primeira Liga outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling in Primeira Liga this season, Chaves have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Chaves are 1.30 PPG clear of Santa Clara in recent Primeira Liga fixtures (1.40 vs 0.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Santa Clara lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 0.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 7 Nov 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Santa Clara half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Chaves half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Santa Clara 43% versus Chaves 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Santa Clara 50% | Chaves 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Santa Clara 0.87 xG and Chaves 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Santa Clara attack 0.733 / defence 1.454 | Chaves attack 0.765 / defence 0.903. League average goals — home 1.316 / away 1.060. Santa Clara's attack strength of 0.733 is below the league average — the 0.87 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 62 Santa Clara games / 28 Chaves games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Santa Clara 27% | Draw 30% | Chaves 43%. Fair-value odds: Santa Clara 3.70 | Draw 3.33 | Chaves 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Chaves at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chaves if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.05 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates are neutral: Santa Clara 60% | Chaves 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Santa Clara vs Chaves | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Estádio de São Miguel • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Apr 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Santa Clara 27% | Draw 30% | Chaves 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 40% | xG Santa Clara 0.87 / Chaves 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Santa Clara attack 0.733 / def 1.454 | Chaves attack 0.765 / def 0.903 | league avg home 1.316 / away 1.060 • Poisson stance: Chaves (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
Santa Clara xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Chaves xG
40%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Santa Clara vs Chaves kick off?
Santa Clara vs Chaves kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 23 April 2023 at Estádio de São Miguel.
What was the final score in Santa Clara vs Chaves?
Santa Clara 1 - 1 Chaves.
Where is Santa Clara vs Chaves being played?
The match is being played at Estádio de São Miguel.
What competition is Santa Clara vs Chaves part of?
Santa Clara vs Chaves is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Santa Clara vs Chaves?
Our statistical model gives Santa Clara a 27% chance of winning, Chaves a 43% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Chaves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Santa Clara vs Chaves?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Santa Clara and Chaves will score (BTTS).
Will Santa Clara vs Chaves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Santa Clara and Chaves?
Record (1 meetings): Santa Clara 0W | Draws 1 | Chaves 0W.
What form are Santa Clara and Chaves in?
Santa Clara (all comps): 0W-1D-9L in 10 | 0.10 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Chaves (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Santa Clara's attacking strength (0.73x league average) is weighed against Chaves's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.87. Flip it around — Chaves's attack (0.77x) against Santa Clara's defence (1.45x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 62/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.6%), 0-1 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chaves Win
27%
3.69
30%
3.34
43%
2.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
Santa Clara xG
Total xG
2.05
1.18
Chaves xG
3.69
27%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
2.33
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.48
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
42%
2.39
Win to Nil
8%
12.00
18%
5.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.9 | 15.2 | 8.9 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.2 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 5.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Santa Clara vs Chaves?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Santa Clara and Chaves expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Santa Clara and 1.18 for Chaves, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Santa Clara vs Chaves?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 30 outings, Santa Clara have picked up 0.60 PPG on a 4W 6D 20L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Chaves's form line: 10W 9D 11L from 30 games, 1.30 PPG, last five W-W-L-D-W.
Put side by side, Chaves are the form team by 0.70 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Santa Clara.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Santa Clara have posted 0.87 PPG from 15 outings (3W 4D 8L).
On the road, Chaves have gone 5W 4D 6L from 15 away games — 1.27 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chaves come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Santa Clara are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Chaves are on 1.00 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Santa Clara
Current Season
Chaves
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Santa Clara and Chaves in coming into this match?
Santa Clara have gone 4W 6D 20L in their last 30 games (0.60 PPG), while Chaves have gone 10W 9D 11L in their last 30 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Santa Clara at home or Chaves away?
Chaves's away record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Santa Clara at home: 0.87 PPG; Chaves away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Santa Clara or Chaves been keeping clean sheets recently?
Santa Clara have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Chaves in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Santa Clara
2
Draws
0
Chaves
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Santa Clara and Chaves?
From 2 meetings on record, Santa Clara have won 0, Chaves have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Santa Clara and Chaves last play each other?
They last met on 23 April 2023, when Santa Clara 1-1 Chaves.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Santa Clara are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Chaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Santa Clara 60%, Chaves 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Santa Clara) and 33% (Chaves).
On the defensive side: Chaves in 33%; Santa Clara have failed to score in 33% of games; Chaves in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Santa Clara home games / Chaves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Santa Clara play Chaves?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Santa Clara's recent matches and 33% of Chaves's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Santa Clara vs Chaves usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Santa Clara's recent games and 33% of Chaves's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Santa Clara and Chaves tend to score early?
Santa Clara have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Chaves in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Santa Clara and Chaves share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Santa Clara and Chaves finished level at 1-1 at Estádio de São Miguel, Regular Season - 29, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Santa Clara 0.87 xG and Chaves 1.18 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Santa Clara attack 0.73 / defence 1.45 against Chaves attack 0.77 / defence 0.90, drawn from 62/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Santa Clara 27% | Draw 30% | Chaves 43%, with Chaves to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Santa Clara 50%, Chaves 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Santa Clara's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Chaves's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Chaves arrived the stronger side — 1.30 PPG against 0.60. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.