Pacos Ferreira 1-2 Vitória SC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 39% as Pacos Ferreira take on Vitória SC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Vitória SC make the trip to Estádio da Capital do Móvel to face Pacos Ferreira in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Saturday 4 December 2021 at 20:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Pacos Ferreira have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Pacos Ferreira, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Pacos Ferreira have posted 1W 3D 2L at Estádio da Capital do Móvel — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 6 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio da Capital do Móvel.
Vitória SC's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Vitória SC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vitória SC's away record: 1W 3D 2L from 6 road trips in Primeira Liga this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.83 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Vitória SC are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading & In-Play
Pacos Ferreira — key trading statistics (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Vitória SC — key trading statistics (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pacos Ferreira 42% versus Vitória SC 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pacos Ferreira 33% | Vitória SC 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pacos Ferreira 0.85 xG and Vitória SC 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pacos Ferreira attack 0.750 / defence 1.096 | Vitória SC attack 0.752 / defence 1.068. League average goals — home 1.063 / away 1.365. Pacos Ferreira's attack strength of 0.750 is below the league average — the 0.85 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 12 Pacos Ferreira games / 12 Vitória SC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pacos Ferreira 24% | Draw 39% | Vitória SC 38%. Fair-value odds: Pacos Ferreira 4.17 | Draw 2.56 | Vitória SC 2.63. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 24% and away win at 38% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.98 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Pacos Ferreira 33% | Vitória SC 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pacos Ferreira vs Vitória SC | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Estádio da Capital do Móvel • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Dec 2021, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pacos Ferreira 24% | Draw 39% | Vitória SC 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 43% | xG Pacos Ferreira 0.85 / Vitória SC 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Pacos Ferreira attack 0.750 / def 1.096 | Vitória SC attack 0.752 / def 1.068 | league avg home 1.063 / away 1.365 • Poisson stance: Draw (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Pacos Ferreira xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Vitória SC xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pacos Ferreira vs Vitória SC kick off?
Pacos Ferreira vs Vitória SC kicked off at 20:30 on Saturday 4 December 2021 at Estádio da Capital do Móvel.
What was the final score in Pacos Ferreira vs Vitória SC?
Pacos Ferreira 1 - 2 Vitória SC.
Where is Pacos Ferreira vs Vitória SC being played?
The match is being played at Estádio da Capital do Móvel.
What competition is Pacos Ferreira vs Vitória SC part of?
Pacos Ferreira vs Vitória SC is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Pacos Ferreira vs Vitória SC?
Our statistical model gives Pacos Ferreira a 24% chance of winning, Vitória SC a 38% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Pacos Ferreira vs Vitória SC?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Pacos Ferreira and Vitória SC will score (BTTS).
Will Pacos Ferreira vs Vitória SC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pacos Ferreira and Vitória SC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pacos Ferreira and Vitória SC in?
Pacos Ferreira (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-L-L. Vitória SC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Pacos Ferreira's attacking strength (0.75x league average) is weighed against Vitória SC's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.85. Flip it around — Vitória SC's attack (0.75x) against Pacos Ferreira's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
24%
4.25
39%
2.59
38%
2.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.8%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Pacos Ferreira xG
Total xG
1.98
1.13
Vitória SC xG
4.25
24%
Home win
2.59
39%
Draw
2.64
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
32%
3.08
43%
2.35
Win to Nil
8%
13.10
16%
6.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.8 | 15.6 | 8.8 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.3 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 5.7 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pacos Ferreira vs Vitória SC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.5%.
How many goals are Pacos Ferreira and Vitória SC expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Pacos Ferreira and 1.13 for Vitória SC, a combined total of 1.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Pacos Ferreira vs Vitória SC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Pacos Ferreira come into this having played 12 games, going 2W 5D 5L for 0.92 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-L-L. The sample for Pacos Ferreira is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Vitória SC sit at 1.33 PPG from 12 outings (4W 4D 4L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Vitória SC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vitória SC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.41 PPG clear of Pacos Ferreira — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Pacos Ferreira's home form reads 1W 3D 2L across 6 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Vitória SC have taken 1.00 points per game from 6 outings (1W 3D 2L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Pacos Ferreira are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Vitória SC are on 1.17 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Last 12 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pacos Ferreira
Blended
Vitória SC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pacos Ferreira and Vitória SC in coming into this match?
Pacos Ferreira have gone 2W 5D 5L in their last 12 games (0.92 PPG), while Vitória SC have gone 4W 4D 4L in their last 12 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pacos Ferreira at home or Vitória SC away?
Pacos Ferreira's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pacos Ferreira at home: 1.00 PPG; Vitória SC away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Pacos Ferreira or Vitória SC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pacos Ferreira have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Vitória SC in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Vitória SC won 4-0 on 15 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pacos Ferreira have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Vitória SC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Pacos Ferreira
1
Draws
3
Vitória SC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pacos Ferreira and Vitória SC?
From 4 meetings on record, Pacos Ferreira have won 0, Vitória SC have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Pacos Ferreira and Vitória SC last play each other?
They last met on 1 April 2023, when Vitória SC 0-0 Pacos Ferreira.
Who has won more matches between Pacos Ferreira and Vitória SC?
Vitória SC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Pacos Ferreira see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Vitória SC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pacos Ferreira 33%, Vitória SC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Pacos Ferreira) and 50% (Vitória SC).
On the defensive side: Pacos Ferreira keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Vitória SC in 33%; Pacos Ferreira have failed to score in 50% of games; Vitória SC in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pacos Ferreira home games / Vitória SC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pacos Ferreira play Vitória SC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Pacos Ferreira's recent matches and 50% of Vitória SC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pacos Ferreira vs Vitória SC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Pacos Ferreira's recent games and 50% of Vitória SC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pacos Ferreira and Vitória SC tend to score early?
Pacos Ferreira have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Vitória SC in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Vitória SC edge out Pacos Ferreira 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vitória SC beat Pacos Ferreira 1-2 at Estádio da Capital do Móvel, Regular Season - 13, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pacos Ferreira 0.85 xG and Vitória SC 1.13 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Vitória SC outscored their 1.13 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pacos Ferreira attack 0.75 / defence 1.10 against Vitória SC attack 0.75 / defence 1.07, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pacos Ferreira 24% | Draw 39% | Vitória SC 38%, with the draw its most likely call at 39%. The actual Vitória SC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 38%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pacos Ferreira 33%, Vitória SC 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pacos Ferreira's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Vitória SC's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Vitória SC arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.92. That form edge translated into the three points. Pacos Ferreira (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Vitória SC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.