Pacos Ferreira 0-2 Benfica – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Benfica at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pacos Ferreira vs Benfica encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primeira Liga encounter, Regular Season - 34 sees Benfica travel to Estádio da Capital do Móvel to take on Pacos Ferreira. The game is scheduled for Friday 13 May 2022, 20:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pacos Ferreira stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L D D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Pacos Ferreira at Estádio da Capital do Móvel this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Benfica — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Benfica away from home this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 away games — 2.20 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Benfica are 0.60 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Pacos Ferreira register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Benfica in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Pacos Ferreira, 1 for Benfica and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Jan 2022, ended 0–2 with Benfica winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Pacos Ferreira trading profile (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Benfica trading profile (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pacos Ferreira 46% versus Benfica 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pacos Ferreira 33% | Benfica 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pacos Ferreira 1.05 xG and Benfica 1.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pacos Ferreira attack 0.958 / defence 1.205 | Benfica attack 1.314 / defence 1.011. League average goals — home 1.082 / away 1.169. Benfica have an above-average attack strength of 1.314 — the away xG of 1.85 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 33 Pacos Ferreira games / 33 Benfica games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pacos Ferreira 20% | Draw 24% | Benfica 55%. Fair-value odds: Pacos Ferreira 5.00 | Draw 4.17 | Benfica 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Benfica (55%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Benfica as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.90 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Pacos Ferreira 80% | Benfica 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pacos Ferreira vs Benfica | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Estádio da Capital do Móvel • Kick-off: Friday 13 May 2022, 20:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pacos Ferreira 20% | Draw 24% | Benfica 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 55% | xG Pacos Ferreira 1.05 / Benfica 1.85 • Poisson strength factors: Pacos Ferreira attack 0.958 / def 1.205 | Benfica attack 1.314 / def 1.011 | league avg home 1.082 / away 1.169 • Poisson stance: Benfica (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Pacos Ferreira xG
Expected Goals
1.85
Benfica xG
55%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pacos Ferreira vs Benfica kick off?
Pacos Ferreira vs Benfica kicked off at 20:15 on Friday 13 May 2022 at Estádio da Capital do Móvel.
What was the final score in Pacos Ferreira vs Benfica?
Pacos Ferreira 0 - 2 Benfica.
Where is Pacos Ferreira vs Benfica being played?
The match is being played at Estádio da Capital do Móvel.
What competition is Pacos Ferreira vs Benfica part of?
Pacos Ferreira vs Benfica is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Pacos Ferreira vs Benfica?
Our statistical model gives Pacos Ferreira a 20% chance of winning, Benfica a 55% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Benfica the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pacos Ferreira vs Benfica?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Pacos Ferreira and Benfica will score (BTTS).
Will Pacos Ferreira vs Benfica have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pacos Ferreira and Benfica?
Record (1 meetings): Pacos Ferreira 0W | Draws 0 | Benfica 1W.
What form are Pacos Ferreira and Benfica in?
Pacos Ferreira (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-D-L. Benfica (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Pacos Ferreira's attack at 0.96x the league average against Benfica's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.05 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Benfica's attack versus Pacos Ferreira's defence, projects 1.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benfica Win
20%
4.89
24%
4.14
55%
1.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Pacos Ferreira xG
Total xG
2.90
1.85
Benfica xG
4.89
20%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
1.80
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.80
45%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
16%
6.37
35%
2.85
Win to Nil
3%
31.13
19%
5.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 10.2 | 9.4 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 10.7 | 9.9 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 5.6 | 5.2 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pacos Ferreira vs Benfica?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Pacos Ferreira and Benfica expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Pacos Ferreira and 1.85 for Benfica, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Pacos Ferreira vs Benfica?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Pacos Ferreira come into this having played 33 games, going 9W 11D 13L for 1.15 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-D-L.
On the other side, Benfica sit at 2.15 PPG from 33 outings (22W 5D 6L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-L across their last five.
Benfica carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Pacos Ferreira — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Pacos Ferreira's home form reads 5W 6D 5L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.31 PPG return.
Away from home, Benfica have taken 2.38 points per game from 16 outings (12W 2D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benfica come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Pacos Ferreira are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Benfica are on 2.30 scored and 0.91 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Benfica in 61%.
Last 33 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pacos Ferreira
Current Season
Benfica
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pacos Ferreira and Benfica in coming into this match?
Pacos Ferreira have gone 9W 11D 13L in their last 33 games (1.15 PPG), while Benfica have gone 22W 5D 6L in their last 33 (2.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pacos Ferreira at home or Benfica away?
Benfica's away record (2.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pacos Ferreira at home: 1.31 PPG; Benfica away: 2.38 PPG.
Have Pacos Ferreira or Benfica been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pacos Ferreira have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Benfica in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Pacos Ferreira and Benfica runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 January 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Benfica have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Pacos Ferreira's record when hosting Benfica specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Pacos Ferreira
0
Draws
4
Benfica
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pacos Ferreira and Benfica?
From 4 meetings on record, Pacos Ferreira have won 0, Benfica have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Pacos Ferreira and Benfica last play each other?
They last met on 26 January 2023, when Pacos Ferreira 0-2 Benfica.
Who has won more matches between Pacos Ferreira and Benfica?
Benfica have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Pacos Ferreira are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Benfica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 69% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pacos Ferreira 62%, Benfica 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Pacos Ferreira) and 62% (Benfica).
On the defensive side: Benfica in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pacos Ferreira home games / Benfica away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pacos Ferreira play Benfica?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Pacos Ferreira's games and 56% of Benfica's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pacos Ferreira vs Benfica usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Pacos Ferreira's recent games and 62% of Benfica's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pacos Ferreira and Benfica tend to score early?
Pacos Ferreira have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Benfica in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Benfica cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Pacos Ferreira.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benfica beat Pacos Ferreira 0-2 at Estádio da Capital do Móvel, Regular Season - 34, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pacos Ferreira 1.05 xG and Benfica 1.85 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Pacos Ferreira fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pacos Ferreira attack 0.96 / defence 1.21 against Benfica attack 1.31 / defence 1.01, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pacos Ferreira 20% | Draw 24% | Benfica 55%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pacos Ferreira 33%, Benfica 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pacos Ferreira's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Benfica's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.15 PPG against 1.15. That form edge translated into the three points. Pacos Ferreira (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward. Benfica (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.