Pacos Ferreira 2-2 Belenenses – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 41% as Pacos Ferreira take on Belenenses.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primeira Liga encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Belenenses travel to Estádio da Capital do Móvel to take on Pacos Ferreira. The game is scheduled for Monday 27 September 2021, 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Pacos Ferreira — All Games: 2W 2D 2L from 6 Primeira Liga outings this season, averaging 1.33 points per game. Last five: L L W D D. They are averaging 0.83 goals per game and conceding 1.17 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 6 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Pacos Ferreira have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Pacos Ferreira at Estádio da Capital do Móvel this season: 1W 1D 1L from 3 home games — 1.33 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 3 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio da Capital do Móvel.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Belenenses stand at 0W 3D 3L from 6 Primeira Liga matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.33 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Belenenses have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Belenenses away from home this season: 0W 1D 2L from 3 away games — 0.33 PPG on the road.
On current form, Pacos Ferreira have the edge — a 0.83 PPG advantage (1.33 vs 0.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Profile
Pacos Ferreira in-play tendencies (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Belenenses in-play tendencies (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pacos Ferreira 33% versus Belenenses 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Pacos Ferreira 33% | Belenenses 17%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pacos Ferreira 0.98 xG and Belenenses 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pacos Ferreira attack 0.858 / defence 1.066 | Belenenses attack 0.580 / defence 1.085. League average goals — home 1.056 / away 1.126. Data: 6 Pacos Ferreira games / 6 Belenenses games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pacos Ferreira 37% | Draw 41% | Belenenses 21%. Fair-value odds: Pacos Ferreira 2.70 | Draw 2.44 | Belenenses 4.76. The draw (41%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.68. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.68 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Belenenses's lower xG of 0.70 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 41% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 37% and away win at 21% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.68 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 24% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 35% on No. Form rates corroborate: Pacos Ferreira 33% | Belenenses 0% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pacos Ferreira vs Belenenses | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Estádio da Capital do Móvel • Kick-off: Monday 27 Sep 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pacos Ferreira 37% | Draw 41% | Belenenses 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 24% | BTTS 35% | xG Pacos Ferreira 0.98 / Belenenses 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: Pacos Ferreira attack 0.858 / def 1.066 | Belenenses attack 0.580 / def 1.085 | league avg home 1.056 / away 1.126 • Poisson stance: Draw (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Pacos Ferreira xG
Expected Goals
0.70
Belenenses xG
35%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pacos Ferreira vs Belenenses kick off?
Pacos Ferreira vs Belenenses kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 27 September 2021 at Estádio da Capital do Móvel.
What was the final score in Pacos Ferreira vs Belenenses?
Pacos Ferreira 2 - 2 Belenenses.
Where is Pacos Ferreira vs Belenenses being played?
The match is being played at Estádio da Capital do Móvel.
What competition is Pacos Ferreira vs Belenenses part of?
Pacos Ferreira vs Belenenses is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Pacos Ferreira vs Belenenses?
Our statistical model gives Pacos Ferreira a 37% chance of winning, Belenenses a 21% chance, and a 41% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Pacos Ferreira vs Belenenses?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Pacos Ferreira and Belenenses will score (BTTS).
Will Pacos Ferreira vs Belenenses have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 24%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pacos Ferreira and Belenenses?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pacos Ferreira and Belenenses in?
Pacos Ferreira (all comps): 2W-2D-2L in 6 | 1.33 PPG | GF 0.83 / GA 1.17 | L5 L-L-W-D-D. Belenenses (all comps): 0W-3D-3L in 6 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.33 | L5 L-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Pacos Ferreira's attack at 0.86x the league average against Belenenses's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 0.98 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Belenenses's attack versus Pacos Ferreira's defence, projects 0.70 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 20.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (16.7%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
37%
2.68
41%
2.41
21%
4.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
18.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
18.3%
Home win
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Pacos Ferreira xG
Total xG
1.68
0.70
Belenenses xG
2.68
37%
Home win
2.41
41%
Draw
4.70
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
50%
Over 1.5
2.00
50%
Under 1.5
2.00
24%
Over 2.5
4.17
76%
Under 2.5
1.32
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.84
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
50%
2.01
37%
2.67
Win to Nil
19%
5.38
8%
12.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.7 | 13.0 | 4.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 18.3 | 12.8 | 4.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.0 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pacos Ferreira vs Belenenses?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.3%.
How many goals are Pacos Ferreira and Belenenses expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Pacos Ferreira and 0.70 for Belenenses, a combined total of 1.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Pacos Ferreira vs Belenenses?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 6 outings, Pacos Ferreira have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 2W 2D 2L record — L-L-W-D-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Pacos Ferreira, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Belenenses's form line: 0W 3D 3L from 6 games, 0.50 PPG, last five L-L-D-D-D. It's still early in the season for Belenenses, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Pacos Ferreira are the form team by 0.83 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Belenenses.
Venue Form
On home soil, Pacos Ferreira have posted 1.33 PPG from 3 outings (1W 1D 1L).
On the road, Belenenses have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 away games — 0.33 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pacos Ferreira come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Pacos Ferreira are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Belenenses are on 0.50 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Defensively: Pacos Ferreira have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 6 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pacos Ferreira
Early Season
Belenenses
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pacos Ferreira and Belenenses in coming into this match?
Pacos Ferreira have gone 2W 2D 2L in their last 6 games (1.33 PPG), while Belenenses have gone 0W 3D 3L in their last 6 (0.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pacos Ferreira at home or Belenenses away?
Pacos Ferreira's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pacos Ferreira at home: 1.33 PPG; Belenenses away: 0.33 PPG.
Have Pacos Ferreira or Belenenses been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pacos Ferreira have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Belenenses in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Pacos Ferreira
1
Draws
0
Belenenses
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pacos Ferreira and Belenenses?
From 2 meetings on record, Pacos Ferreira have won 1, Belenenses have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Pacos Ferreira and Belenenses last play each other?
They last met on 25 February 2022, when Belenenses 0-2 Pacos Ferreira.
Who has won more matches between Pacos Ferreira and Belenenses?
Pacos Ferreira have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pacos Ferreira see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Belenenses are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Pacos Ferreira 33% BTTS, Belenenses 0%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Pacos Ferreira and 0% for Belenenses.
On the defensive side: Pacos Ferreira keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Belenenses in 33%; Pacos Ferreira have failed to score in 33% of games; Belenenses in 100%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pacos Ferreira home games / Belenenses away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pacos Ferreira play Belenenses?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Pacos Ferreira's recent matches and 0% of Belenenses's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pacos Ferreira vs Belenenses usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Pacos Ferreira's recent games and 0% of Belenenses's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pacos Ferreira and Belenenses tend to score early?
Pacos Ferreira have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Belenenses in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pacos Ferreira and Belenenses share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio da Capital do Móvel, Regular Season - 7, as Pacos Ferreira and Belenenses drew 2-2 in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pacos Ferreira 0.98 xG and Belenenses 0.70 xG, a combined 1.68. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Pacos Ferreira beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Belenenses outscored their 0.70 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pacos Ferreira attack 0.86 / defence 1.07 against Belenenses attack 0.58 / defence 1.08, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pacos Ferreira 37% | Draw 41% | Belenenses 21%, with the draw its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. Over 3.5 was 9% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pacos Ferreira 33%, Belenenses 17%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pacos Ferreira's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Belenenses's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Pacos Ferreira arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Pacos Ferreira (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Belenenses (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.