Moreirense 3-2 GIL Vicente – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Moreirense at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Moreirense vs GIL Vicente fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primeira Liga clash, Regular Season - 11 as Moreirense welcome GIL Vicente to Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas. Kick-off is set for Friday 8 November 2024 at 20:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Moreirense have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D L W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Moreirense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Moreirense have posted 5W 4D 1L at Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Moreirense are significantly better at Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas than their overall form suggests.
GIL Vicente — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for GIL Vicente, so this record blends games from this season and last.
GIL Vicente's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Moreirense at 1.40 PPG versus GIL Vicente's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Moreirense, 1 for GIL Vicente and 2 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Apr 2024, ended 0–1 with GIL Vicente winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Moreirense trading profile (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
GIL Vicente trading profile (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Moreirense 36% versus GIL Vicente 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Moreirense 39% | GIL Vicente 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Moreirense 1.49 xG and GIL Vicente 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Moreirense attack 0.870 / defence 0.782 | GIL Vicente attack 0.855 / defence 1.186. League average goals — home 1.438 / away 1.159. Moreirense's defence rating of 0.782 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 44 Moreirense games / 44 GIL Vicente games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Moreirense 54% | Draw 26% | GIL Vicente 20%. Fair-value odds: Moreirense 1.85 | Draw 3.85 | GIL Vicente 5.00. Moreirense hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Moreirense as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Moreirense offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.26 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Moreirense 40% | GIL Vicente 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Moreirense vs GIL Vicente | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas • Kick-off: Friday 8 Nov 2024, 20:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Moreirense 54% | Draw 26% | GIL Vicente 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 42% | xG Moreirense 1.49 / GIL Vicente 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Moreirense attack 0.870 / def 0.782 | GIL Vicente attack 0.855 / def 1.186 | league avg home 1.438 / away 1.159 • Poisson stance: Moreirense (54%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Moreirense xG
Expected Goals
0.78
GIL Vicente xG
42%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Moreirense vs GIL Vicente kick off?
Moreirense vs GIL Vicente kicked off at 20:15 on Friday 8 November 2024 at Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas.
What was the final score in Moreirense vs GIL Vicente?
Moreirense 3 - 2 GIL Vicente.
Where is Moreirense vs GIL Vicente being played?
The match is being played at Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas.
What competition is Moreirense vs GIL Vicente part of?
Moreirense vs GIL Vicente is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Moreirense vs GIL Vicente?
Our statistical model gives Moreirense a 54% chance of winning, GIL Vicente a 20% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Moreirense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Moreirense vs GIL Vicente?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Moreirense and GIL Vicente will score (BTTS).
Will Moreirense vs GIL Vicente have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Moreirense and GIL Vicente?
Record (4 meetings): Moreirense 1W | Draws 2 | GIL Vicente 1W.
What form are Moreirense and GIL Vicente in?
Moreirense (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-W-L. GIL Vicente (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about Moreirense vs GIL Vicente?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Moreirense's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against GIL Vicente's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.49. The same calculation in reverse, GIL Vicente's attack versus Moreirense's defence, projects 0.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.6%), 0-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Moreirense Win
54%
1.85
26%
3.79
20%
5.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Moreirense xG
Total xG
2.26
0.78
GIL Vicente xG
1.85
54%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
5.11
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
46%
2.17
23%
4.41
Win to Nil
25%
4.02
4%
22.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 8.1 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.5 | 12.0 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 8.9 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.7 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Moreirense vs GIL Vicente?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Moreirense and GIL Vicente expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Moreirense and 0.78 for GIL Vicente, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Moreirense vs GIL Vicente?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Moreirense's recent record stands at 20W 9D 15L from 44 games, a 1.57 PPG return, with D-L-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Moreirense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
GIL Vicente, meanwhile, have gone 11W 13D 20L across 44 games — 1.05 PPG, with D-L-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for GIL Vicente is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Moreirense by 0.52 — a real, if not enormous, edge over GIL Vicente heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Moreirense have managed 10W 6D 5L from 21 games — 1.71 PPG in front of their own supporters.
GIL Vicente's away record stands at 3W 4D 14L across 21 trips, a 0.62 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.05 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of GIL Vicente's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Moreirense come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Moreirense are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; GIL Vicente are on 1.23 scored and 1.55 conceded.
Defensively: Moreirense have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Moreirense
Blended
GIL Vicente
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Moreirense and GIL Vicente in coming into this match?
Moreirense have gone 20W 9D 15L in their last 44 games (1.57 PPG), while GIL Vicente have gone 11W 13D 20L in their last 44 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Moreirense at home or GIL Vicente away?
Moreirense's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Moreirense at home: 1.71 PPG; GIL Vicente away: 0.62 PPG.
Have Moreirense or GIL Vicente been keeping clean sheets recently?
Moreirense have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, GIL Vicente in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: GIL Vicente have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Moreirense's record when hosting GIL Vicente specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Moreirense
2
Draws
3
GIL Vicente
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Moreirense and GIL Vicente?
From 8 meetings on record, Moreirense have won 3, GIL Vicente have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Moreirense and GIL Vicente last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Moreirense 1-2 GIL Vicente.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Moreirense see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
GIL Vicente are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Moreirense 43%, GIL Vicente 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Moreirense) and 57% (GIL Vicente).
On the defensive side: Moreirense keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; GIL Vicente in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Moreirense home games / GIL Vicente away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Moreirense play GIL Vicente?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Moreirense's recent matches and 48% of GIL Vicente's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Moreirense vs GIL Vicente usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Moreirense's recent games and 57% of GIL Vicente's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Moreirense and GIL Vicente tend to score early?
Moreirense have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, GIL Vicente in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Moreirense edge out GIL Vicente 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Moreirense beat GIL Vicente 3-2 at Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, Regular Season - 11, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Moreirense 1.49 xG and GIL Vicente 0.78 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Moreirense beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. GIL Vicente outscored their 0.78 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Moreirense attack 0.87 / defence 0.78 against GIL Vicente attack 0.85 / defence 1.19, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Moreirense 54% | Draw 26% | GIL Vicente 20%, with Moreirense to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Moreirense 39%, GIL Vicente 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Moreirense's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
GIL Vicente's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Moreirense arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 1.05. Form held, and they took the win. Moreirense (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual. GIL Vicente (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.76 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.